Given the flooding situation its no surprise that the Thailand’s econ figures for October were weak and we expect that November would be even weaker. See below for some quick highlights.
- Consumption, investment, government spending and exports were all weak in October.
- Manufacturing (36% drop in MPI) got hit far larger than agriculture sector (+7% y-y on output)
- October farm income still grew 12% y-y but it kept falling on month-on-month basis (-7.5% m-m in Oct). Downside risk to consumption in 2012 and this isn’t about flooding.
- Sectors that were most affected from the flooding in October were and still are auto, electronics and electrical appliances.
- Export (+29% y-y in 3Q11) was flat y-y in October or fell 20% m-m. As inventory is running out, export should fall further in November.
- BOT revised down its 2011 GDP forecast for the 2nd time from 2.6% to 1.8% and revised up 2012 forecast to 4.8% from 4.1%
We aren’t expecting anything magical to happen with the economic figures until 2Q12 when the economic recovery from the flooding situation should be in full swing. Until then we expect to see further downgrades for GDP and listed company earnings but with minimal impact on the SET Index itself.
You can click on the link to download the data table from the BOT: table_eng_m_Oct11