Latest thoughts from our resident queen chartist Ploy. She still thinks that the markets are at crossroads and that we should keep a watchful eye at the THB/USD and resistance points for the SET, DAX and DJIA.
The SET enters the 10th-15th November cycle resistance with a deep plunge at opening on the 10th November. However, there is no major alarm yet as the index seems to recover well after the plunge. There is another similar pattern in the SET Bank index which states that another cycle resistance awaits on the 15th. November. Unless the SET tumbles much tomorrow, the situation may look more positive.
The good news is, this morning, the SET50 index has breached its down channel, as shown in the chart. The fact that this breakout occurs before the 15th November adds more good sign for the SET. The next barriers in the SET50 are at 706 and 712 and its supports are at 666 and 656.
However, the SET still have to breach above 990-995 in order for me to cancel the down channel. I said last week that the breakouts in BOTH the SET and the SET50 would be a positive sign and aggressive buying would be applicable on breakouts.
While the SET is about to test the 990-995 barrier, the Baht/Dollar exchange rate may become a risk factor, instead of a positive one, as it is breaching in a down channel as well. If the Baht/Dollar exchange rate reaches above 30.90 Baht/Dollar before the SET successfully pass the 990-995 barrier, it is likely that the upside in the SET will be limited.
As for the world outlook, I use Germany’s DAX index to measure the sentiment over the Greece/Euro debt crisis. The DAX still can’t breach its down channel, and the barriers and supports are as given in the chart. Across the Atlantic, the US’s Dow Jones are heading to test its barrier at 12,284 and the upside is as shown in the chart. Again, it has to breach above its down channel in order for things to improve.
My conclusion is we should wait until there is a breakout in the SET before buying aggressively. I’ll put an update in the comment box below if there is any major alarm.
Thanks Ploy! You can contact her directly @ firstname.lastname@example.org