Weekly Charts – SET, SET/THB

Latest thoughts from our resident queen chartist Ploy. She still thinks that the market will continue to rally but that we should keep our eyes on the USD/THB exchange rate and a close eye for the next cycle on the 10th November.

As we are approaching mid November, the market seems more difficult to trade. Perhaps, the retail investors are busy with the flooding crisis, as they have disappeared from the market. This is indeed a boring period.

Here, I draw the same cycle in the SET (just like the one I drew 3 weeks ago), stating that the peak cycle in the SET may last until 10th November. I found a similar cycle in the SET Bank index, with the cycle ending on 15th November that may push the SET up a little bit higher after the 10th. There is also another Technical pattern, Higher Lows, in the SET (as marked by orange arrows), and this pattern adds the positive odd to the SET.

Therefore, the market may rally until some time around 10th-15th November.

Meanwhile, the SET faces resistance at 995-1,000 and the SET50 at 695 and 712. I’d love to see BOTH indexes breach above the barriers before the 10th-15th November. Otherwise, the upside may be limited in the SET.

Support for the SET50 is at 655 and the SET at 920 and 910, for this week.

Another positive factor for the SET is the Baht/Dollar exchange rate. Like I said last week, the strengthening Baht against the US dollar pushes the SET higher. From The chart, the Baht/Dollar exchange rate may continue to zigzag down. And, if the Baht/Dollar exchange rate falls below 30.50 baht/dollar, it will be positive to the SET as well.

Yes, I know things seem positive for the SET now. Whatever you are trading, please keep in mind that there is a cycle ahead. If the resistances are not breached before the end of the cycle, be prepared as there may be less upside than you think.

By the way, if any of you are trading gold or considering trading some. The resistance for the COMEX Gold Spot is $1,840-1,860/oz. and the support is at $1,775/0z. and $,1720-1,715/oz.

 Happy Trading.  :-)  

Thanks again Ploy! You can contact her at ploy@thaicapitalist.com

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