Happy Holidays!

Its been a good fun few months trying to figure out what exactly to post here and I thank you all for reading and my friends and colleagues that have helped me in creating this (you know who are!). In 2012 we’ll look to expand further with individual stock ideas and more indepth thoughts on the markets.

Until then I hope that you all have a fantastic holiday break!

Thai Government trying to shift debt to BOT

The Thai Government has been looking for a way to transfer the country’s debt from the ’97 Asian Financial Crisis to the balance sheet of the Bank of Thailand. Its been going back and forth for the last few days and now it looks like that the idea is scrapped for the time being.

I have no idea whether switching debt from one’s left pocket to its right pocket will really make a difference for the country but it already looks like the THB/USD will weaken in the short term.

The government reason for doing this was to allow to sell more debt to fund the reconstruction from the recent flood crisis without it hitting the debt ceiling imposed post ’97 Asian Financial Crisis.

It’ll be quite interesting to see how things develop from here onwards….

See below from Bloomberg:

Thailand’s government scrapped a proposal to transfer $35 billion of legacy debt from bank bailouts to the central bank and will instead seek to extract cash from commercial lenders to finance flood defenses.

“Transferring debts to the Bank of Thailand will be like printing money,” Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala told reporters today after meeting Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul. “The methods we are using must not affect fiscal and monetary discipline and must not hurt confidence among foreign investors and international agencies.”

Thailand’s Government Scraps Plan to Transfer Legacy Debt to Central Bank – Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/vf5q5m

Weekly Charts

Latest thoughts from Ploy !

As we are in the last week of the year 2011, there is no joy to the world of investment. The SET hit the cycle resistance during Christmas and fell back down, as the Baht is weakened against the Dollar. From the chart, the Baht/Dollar exchange rate may head up to re-test the barrier at 31.42-31.44 again, and a breakout above this barrier will be a negative to the SET.

The SET didn’t manage to stay firmly above the barrier at 1,043-1,045, and as it tumbles now, the support is at 1,025-1,020. Another critical support is at 1,006-1,000. If the SET falls below 1,006-1,000, it will signal a dangerous Double Top pattern, and the downside may be steep. I wouldn’t recommend buying anything now.

Continue reading Weekly Charts

Weekly Charts Update

Latest thoughts from Ploy!

The SET is now sluggish but upside is still seen. I still maintain my opinion that the SET, and other equity markets may continue the rally until Christmas, as shown in the charts for the past 2 weeks. Unless the SET breaches above the barrier at 1,075-1,078 before/around Christmas, it may become weak and back down. In such case, the worst-case scenario is that the index may head down toward 820-800 next year.

The short-term resistance against the SET is now at 1,043-1,045, and the support is at 1,006-1,000.

  Continue reading Weekly Charts Update

Weekly Industry Update

Comments:

1. The resources industry has continued its improvement from its lows this year, hardly a surprise given that oil prices are likely to remain high for the rest of the year. 2. Technology has continued to remain buoyant on the back of a massive special dividend from DTAC (giving it a yield of 20% at the time of announcement). A quick thought, given the lawsuits being filed towards DTAC from True Plc, could this huge dividend payment using their retained earnings be a sign that Telenor is becoming fed up with the way the telecommunications industry is being run by the regulators in Thailand and want to exit?

  Continue reading Weekly Industry Update

Crane group getting ready for heavy lifting

The Crane Group of Cos was set up by Thongchai Praerangsi in 1990 to provide rental services of cranes, forklifts and other construction machinery for lifting, assembling and installing large and heavy objects as well as machinery sales under The Crane Services Co Ltd (TCS). As the industry continued to expand, Mr Thongchai set up The Crane Laem Chabang Co Ltd (TCL), The Crane Rayong Co Ltd (TCR) and The Crane Heavy Lift Co Ltd (TCH). In 1997, He set up Chu Kai Co Ltd to import used cranes and parts for sale and provide repair services. The group was restructured in 2004, when Crane held a 99.99% stake each in TCL, TCR and TCH. It also bought 99.99% of shares in TCS in 2006. Since the restructuring, Crane mainly sells equipment and provides repair services for cranes, while its subsidiaries only provide rental services. Chamnan Ngampojanavong, chief financial officer of Chu Kai Plc, discusses the company’s strategy and outlook.

  Continue reading Crane group getting ready for heavy lifting

Weekly Charts – USD, DJIA, SET

Latest thoughts from chartist Ploy! She’s looking closely @ the Dollar Index and the impact on the markets globally.

Apologies for my last week’s forecast that the US dollar index would fall until late December.

The US dollar index bounced back and made a significant breakout above the given barrier at 79.70-79.84. It may head up toward the key barrier at 81.28-81.30. This is the pressure that is pushing the world equity markets and gold price down. I now cancel my last week’s prediction that the US dollar index may fall until late December.

Continue reading Weekly Charts – USD, DJIA, SET

Weekly Industry Update

Comments:

We decided to expand this weekly update to include the relative valuations of each industry sector as it will help to highlight why certain industries are more attractive.

The SET continued to gain very strongly in the first week of December buoyed by silly news in Europe that the crisis will magically come to an end. You can see via the relative valuations as to why we find the resources sector to be far more compelling versus other sectors in the SET. The technology sector (includes telecoms ADVANC, DTAC) was weaker despite the strength in the SET, could this be the start of a downtrend? Continue reading Weekly Industry Update

Weekly Charts – SET, DJIA, THB/USD

Latest thoughts from our resident queen Chartist Ploy, in summary she’s look at:

1. World equity markets rallying until Xmas

2. Keeping an eye at the USD/THB rate as it will dictate the movement of the market.

Last week was amazing.

The SET breached above 2 barriers last week, which are the barriers at 989 and 1,000. Such a rally coincided with the fact that the Baht/Dollar exchange rate had backed down from the resistance, forming a peak which also marked a ‘low’ point in the SET. The Baht may continue gaining strength against the Dollar, and may reach 30.45 baht/dollar. This points that the SET may head up higher. Continue reading Weekly Charts – SET, DJIA, THB/USD