Ploy has a bearish outlook for the SET for the time-being, whilst she thinks there may be a rebound this week, she expects things to worsen further on a technical basis.
Nothing can stop the SET from, errr, falling now.
This is not the right time to buy more stocks in hope to average down the cost of your portfolio. This is not the time to buy so-called cheap stocks, no matter how tempting they seem. This is the time to Short. Period.
The SET may continue the fall, reaching towards 1,100-1,080, as mentioned many times, with temporary support at around 1,127-1,120. Although, there may be rebound this week, I expect the rebound to last only in short term. The resistances that the rebound must breach are 1,160 / 1,180 and 1,202-1,205.
The reason I believe there may be a rebound this week, but only in the short term, is that, the US dollar index has tumbled a bit on its way to test the resistance at 81.80. The support for the US dollar index is at 80.85-80.70, which seems to be able to hold up. Eventually, the US dollar index may be able to regain strength and zigzag up, pressuring down the equity markets once again. The support at 80.85-80.70 is the point where we have to wait and see the result.
Another reason for the SET to fall is the Bank sector. The SET Bank index has already made a beautiful Double-Top pattern, after falling below 437. Now, it is stalling at the support at 425-420, given in my previous comment. I think the fall will continue towards 416-412 or lower. The resistances for the sector to breach in order to regain strength are at 440 and 448-450.
Lastly, things don’t seem well in Dow Jones as well. Although the index made a slight rebound last night, when we look at the weekly chart, the situation looks terrifying. Dow Jones is falling from the weekly resistance, the same one that signaled the beginning of Subprime crisis. In order to look improving, the Dow Jones must breach above the resistances at 12,615 and 12,930. Otherwise, it may continue to fall back to 12,470 and 11,735 or the downside may be lower, as shown in the chart below.
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