Thaksin’s pushing hard to come back

This coming Wednesday Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, Chairman of the House Committee for National Reconciliation plans to table a “reconciliation bill” to Parliament that would provide blanket amnesty to all politicians and public servants (civil servants, soldiers, police etc..) for any political crimes committed since 2006 [note: convenient year to choose!]

Thanachart put out flow chart of the likely timetable and process required for the bill to be passed.

So what does this all mean? 

Pheu Thai (PT) currently has strong support within the country and the opposition whether it be the democrats (still reeling from their abundant corruption during their term) or the PAD (who?!) aren’t likely to pose much of a threat. So with the opposition weak the likelihood of political turmoil is minimal, no political turmoil means likely no meddling from the military. We’ve already seen in the past few months how Yingluck and PT is mending the fences with formerly aggrieved groups (won’t state whom for obvious reasons).

We have upcoming elections next year with Pheu Thai likely to increase their number of seats in parliament, currently at 265/500 and analysts expecting close to 300.

So…lets just imagine Thailand is a company, it has displayed consistent earnings growth of 4-6% (excl 2008) of GDP growth for the past decade, it has a clean balance sheet with low Debt-GDP levels and management while most definitely not perfect, is far better than the alternative and will be able to push through their agendas for infrastructure spending and other pro-growth policies, its geographically well located to take advantage of the growth from Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, and its a natural second hub for companies outside of Singapore. Doesn’t this just sound like a fantastic investment opportunity?

Quick side note:

Yes Gen Sonthi was one of the key leaders of the military coup that kicked Thaksin out and officially his Matubhum Party is an opposition party (any takers how long this will last?) and yes he’s now pushing through a law that will exonerate Thaksin of his convicted crimes. Incredible what a couple of baht can accomplish. Say what you want about the man, but Thaksin has played this political game beautifully.

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