Thailand’s economy slows slightly – June

Thailand’s economy still expanded in June but at a lower rate b/c of Europe but it was good to see domestic demand and tourism expanding stronger than most peoples expectations.

Just quickly:

  • Manufacturing – contracted by -9.89%  (Europe)
  • Consumption – PCI rose +4.4%
  • Investments – PPI rose +18.3% (Auto industry mainly)
  • EXIM – Exports declined -4.3%, imports 5.0%
  • Tourism – Foreign arrivals + 10.1% to 1.6 mn tourists led mainly by Chinese and Vietnamese travelers, interesting to note that European visitors still +6.8%

See below for full figures from the BOT

 

  2011 2012
  Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Real sector
Mfg prod index (seasonally adj) 143.9 165.6 183.4 178.0 179.0 189.3 174.1
Mfg prod index (w/o seasonal adj) 140.7 159.0 172.4 193.2 165.3 189.0 182.4
Mfg prod index yoy chg (w/o season adj) -25.3 -15.0 -3.1 -2.6 0.0 6.0 -9.6
Industrial capacity utilisation (%) 53.2 58.3 62.4 67.2 61.1 74.3 72.4
Private consumption indicators
  Retail sales ’95 prices (yoy % chg) -4.5 3.1 13.3 7.5 11.8 25.8 n.a.
  Passenger car sales units (yoy % chg) -33.8 -7.4 -1.4 -2.2 24.9 137.5 84.2
  Motorcycle sales units (yoy % chg) -22.3 -7.4 6.8 -0.6 4.9 14.5 -3.5
  Impts consumer gds 95 price (yoy% chg) 14.8 -1.5 15.3 4.3 2.9 17.9 7.9
Private investment indicators
  Com’l car sales units (yoy % chng) -46.9 29.2 33.4 36.8 35.2 85.8 68.3
  Impts capital gds 95 price (yoy % chng) 16.6 4.7 41.6 4.0 25.2 38.4 27.7
  Cement sales tonnes (yoy % chng) 4.7 6.7 4.2 1.7 3.9 7.5 9.4
Government cash balance (Bt bn) -37.1 -29.7 -119.4 -180.3 -47.0 29.8 167.4
Consumer price index 3.53 3.38 3.35 3.45 2.47 2.53 2.56
  Food 9.09 7.70 7.18 7.07 4.51 5.18 4.72
  Non-food 0.17 0.73 1.01 1.23 1.18 0.83 1.17
Core inflat (excluding food&energy) 2.66 2.75 2.72 2.77 2.13 1.95 1.92
External accounts
 Exports (US$mn) 16,856 15,520 18,621 19,661 16,630 20,549 19,507
    yoy % chng -2.1 -6.1 1.2 -6.8 -3.5 6.7 -4.3
Imports (US$mn) 17,094 14,998 16,569 21,062 17,364 19,975 17,864
    yoy % chng 19.6 -2.5 8.2 21.5 9.0 16.8 5.0
Trade balance (US$mn) -238 522 2,052 -1,401 -734 574 1,644
Current acct balance (US$mn) 1,940 981 1,092 -1,522 -1,516 -1,540 604
Net capital flow (US$mn) -2,434 313 1,425 487 142 -3,002 -635
  Monetary Authorities (US$ mn) -608 760 2,424 -219 -434 -954 -40
  Government (US$ (mn) 227 342 263 325 881 -246 1,167
  Bank (US$mn) -244 1204 971 3,057 2,807 1,296 -509
  Others (US$mn) -1,809 -1,993 -2,232 -2,676 -3,112 -3,098 -1,253
Balance of payments (US$mn) -1,029 -160 2,082 766 -1,008 -2,774 519
Official reserves (US$bn) 175.1 178.6 180.4 179.2 179.0 171.7 174.7
Monetary indicators
Monetary base (Bt bn) 1,365.5 1,331.1 1,309.3 1,312.5 1,341.1 1,340.3 1,331.3
  yoy % chng 9.8 7.9 6.1 3.5 11.6 12.4 8.8
Commercial bank deposits 11,634.5 11,810.5 11,977.0 12,340.9 12,414.4 12,603.7 12,926.6
  yoy % chng 9.9 11.4 10.6 13.3 13.1 13.6 17.6
Commercial bank private credits 11,558.9 11,702.4 11,800.1 11,908.7 12,079.0 12,279.7 12,394.1
  yoy % chng 16.2 16.3 15.6 15.5 16.4 16.8 16.1
Interest rates
  Repurchase rate, avg, 1 day (%) 3.25 3.19 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
  Overnight interbank, avg (%) 3.15 3.09 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90
  Fixed deposit rate 1-year (%) 2.87 2.87 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86
  Prime rate MLR (%) 7.25 7.22 7.13 7.13 7.13 7.13 7.13
 Exchange rate (baht/US$) 31.2 31.55 30.71 30.71 30.88 31.36 31.65

Source:  Bank of Thailand

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