What happened this past week 10.12.12 to 16.12.12

Positives:

  1. US Initial Jobs Claims fall to 343k, 26k less than expected but Labor Dept uncertain on seasonal adjustment impact.
  2. Shanghai index goes BOOM and rallies 4.3% on the week to 4 month high.
  3. Chinese HSBC initial mfr’g PMI up slightly to 50.9 from 50.5. IP and Retail Sales rise at fastest pace since Mar.
  4. India’s wholesale inflation moderates to lowest since Jan giving room to RBI to cut rates.
  5. German ZEW investor 6 month confidence rises to +6.9 from -15.7. Current conditions up a more slight .3 pts to 5.7.
  6. Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index rises to 47.8 from 46.7 and better than est of 47. Still below 50 for 11th straight month but best in 5 mo’s.
  7. Euro zone CPI falls to 2.2% y/o/y from 2.5%, a 2 yr low.
  8. Greece lives another financially bailed out day as they finally get next tranche.
  9. China industrial production rose 10.1 percent in November, slightly ahead of the consensus estimate of a 9.8 percent gain, while retail sales growth rose to 14.9 percent, ahead of estimates of a 14.6 percent rise. BofA economist Ting Lu said, “The Chinese economy is in the sweet spot now with rebounding GDP growth, rebounding earning growth and low inflation.”

Negatives:

  1. Fiscal cliff still coming
  2. Fed still keeps pumping $$$ QE4
  3. German exports unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent in October after falling 2.4 percent the month before. Economists expected a 0.3 percent drop. The gains reflected a pickup in demand from outside the euro area. Import growth came in at 2.5 percent, much higher than the consensus estimate of 0.4 percent.
  4. China’s trade data and bank loan total both less than expected.
  5. China proxy Australia sees business confidence fall to lowest since Apr ’09
  6. The final estimate for Q3 GDP growth figures out of Japan confirm that the country has slipped into recession. Economic output contracted 3.5 percent in Q3, slightly worse than the consensus estimate of a 3.3 percent decline. The current account fell 29.4 percent from last year, but came in stronger than expected. Nomura economist Shuichi Obata said, “It’s likely that Japan’s economy hit bottom in the last quarter.”
  7. Japanese Tankan mfr’g index for Q4 falls to -12 from -3, the weakest since Q1 ’10.
  8. European IP in Oct falls 1.4% m/o/m vs est of flat.
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