Thai baht – Central Bank to step in?

Its been on the news quite a bit in the past few weeks that because the Thai Baht has strengthened 2.5% YTD  

Overseas investors have bought $1.2 billion more sovereign notes than they sold this month through Feb. 8, Thai Bond Market Association data show. Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said on Jan. 31 there’s concern the strong baht, which has rallied 2.5 percent against the dollar this year, will hurt tourism and exports. The Bank of Thailand may unveil measures to curb foreign inflows at a meeting on Feb. 20, according to Disawat Tiaowvanich, a currency trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl.

Source: Bloomberg

When discussing with colleagues, clients and friends about the Thai baht, we’ve always said we expect for the Thai baht to eventually return to 25 vs the dollar (pre asian crisis level), of course we don’t know when but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if it were to happen within the next 5 years, also Thailand’s capital markets are too small to fight a currency strenghtening and we do fear that if the BOT does try to step in that they will eventually lose. On the other hand my friends/clients in manufacturing come back saying that Thailand cannot afford to allow its currency to strengthen as it would make Thailand less attractive to invest in and would hurt the tourism market dramatically. I can only say that, look, things can’t just only stay the same, this place has to continue to grow, and naturally a stonger currency will be a result of that, manufacturers have to up their machineary investments, tourism operators improve their services and offerings, and yes while it is easier said than done, Thailand can, in our opinion, comfortably support a stronger currency.

Sector Update 04.02.13 to 08.02.13

The market spent most of the past week on a sideways trend, some days up some days down, some days foreign buying some days foreign selling, the property sector still continues to rock n roll however the telco sector has been lagging slightly. This week should be fairly quiet due to Chinese New Years, lets hope the BOT doesn’t come out with any nonsense (i.e. cap controls) on the 20th feb when they meet.

130211 00sum

130211 01set        130211 02mai

Continue reading Sector Update 04.02.13 to 08.02.13

Stocks in the news (ait, bmcl, dtac, ksl, pjw, ssi, susco, tvd) – 11.02.13

AIT

Aiming high — AIT aims to bid for more than Bt10bn worth of project this year from trueNET-CAT-ICT. The company also revealed that it is in the process of obtaining a concession from the government of Myanmar to invest in the telecommunications sector. AIT targets revenues this year to reach Bt5.4bn after booking profit of Bt3bn from its current backlog. (Khao Hoon, 11/02/13)

Comment: Always liked this company and its management, they’ve been able to consistently and grow with its government contracts.

BMCL

BMCL gaining from weaker yen — BMCL is benefitting from the weakening of the yen and will be refinancing its yen loan into baht, reducing its debt by Bt4-5bn. The company aims to set up an infrastructure fund worth Bt40-50bn to raise funds to bid for new train lines. (Khao Hoon, 11/02/13)

Comment: Et voila, infrastructure fund

DTAC

DTAC 2012 net profit falls 4.5% — Total Access Communication PCL Friday reported a 4.5% fall in 2012 net profit mainly as a result of higher costs of sales and service. Thailand’s second-largest mobile phone operator by subscribers posted a net profit of Bt11.28bn (US$378.6 million) down from Bt11.81bn in 2011, according to financial statements filed to the Stock Exchange of Thailand. (Dow Jones Newswires, 8/2/13)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ait, bmcl, dtac, ksl, pjw, ssi, susco, tvd) – 11.02.13

Management Trades 04.02.13 – 08.02.13

Notable Transactions

Buy(s):

  • SIRI – The President bought these shares from his private investment vehicle, only to eventually sell them @ the same price, first time we’ve seen a sell under his name

Sell(s):

  • BLA – Main owners
  • BLAND – K. Ananttttttttttttt sold his warrants
  • SIRI – See Above
  • TPIPL – A director sells off THB 30 mn worth of shares
  • WHA – Block trade from last week where 3.9% of shares were sold to a new group

130211 mgmt trades