Thailand still #1 globally for medical tourism

According to Bloomberg, Thailand still ranks as the #1 destination for Medical tourism…

Source: Bloomberg

… a quick look at Bumrumgrad Hospital (ticker: BH) revenue contribution for the past 2 fiscal years demonstrates how important medical tourism is to the hospital industry here in Thailand.

bh_revSource: Bumrumgrad Hospital 4Q12 Report


Rant: Loss-making state firms to boost bonuses

What the ?! So this is what we pay taxes for? What about firing the heads for being useless monkeys, for all the complaining that Singaporeans do about their state enterprises, imagine the noise they would make if they saw whats going on here.

Despite massive losses and huge debt loads, some state-owned transportation enterprises will be handing out bonus cheques of up to one month’s salary to motivate employees to work more efficiently and to keep high-quality human resources from leaving.

Source: The Nation

Stocks in the news (amata, demco, cpall, thai, ticon, tmb, top) 04.07.13

Amata: Still confident of EIA backing. Amata Corporation is confident the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for its 3,500-rai expansion at Amata Nakorn Industrial Estate will be approved this year, ending a long dispute with communities. The company maintains the land sales target of 3,000 rai in 2013, up from 2,800 rai last year. (Source: Bangkok Post)


Capital increase shares left over — DEMCO has been left with 64.92mn unsold shares from its capital increase. Management said that the company is working towards extending payment terms for the purchase of “Wind Energy” shares in order to sell the remaining shares and also to purchase 4% of “Wind Energy” with the current Bt800mn. (Khao Hoon, 04/07/13)

Comment: This will hurt their prospects, demco has ok management and really their earnings will resemble that of a christmas tree once the wind projects are done being recognised over the next 2 years


10,000 stores in five years — CPALL confirms that it plans to expand up to 10,000 stores nationwide over the next five years. It says that the heart of retail business is changes in consumer behaviors and the company is competing to stay on top of that. (Khao Hoon, 04/07/13)

Comment: The main story for cpall is it’s recent acquisition of makro, essentially their eps growth is gone for the next two years due to the high interest payments but post 2014 their earnings should resume growth. Continue reading Stocks in the news (amata, demco, cpall, thai, ticon, tmb, top) 04.07.13

Stocks in the news (amata, banpu, bay, nncl, ptt, pttgc, rs, true, ticon) 03.07.13


Amata expands industrial estates as Chinese flock in – Amata Corp, Thailand’s major developer and manager of factory estates, is set to expand its industrial zones to cater to Chinese investors, who are expected to set up 300 to 500 plants in its zones in the next five years. (The Nation, 03/07/13)

Comment: Well AMATA has a straightfwd biz model, owns land, sells it, done, we’d rather wait for a crisis to appear before going back into here


BANPU’s new deal — Australia-based Centennial Coal, a mining unit of BANPU, will supply coal for Origin Energy’s power plant for eight years, beginning July 1 next year. Centennial has agreed to sell up to 24.5mn tonnes of coal throughout the term of the contract. (Bangkok Post, 03/07/13)

Comment: Banpu still isn’t at the levels that we consider it attractive, we’ve commented here enough times that since they sold off a portion of their business their earnings won’t recover and combined with the continuing decline in coal prices we’re not looking @ this at all, not until it goes below 200 Continue reading Stocks in the news (amata, banpu, bay, nncl, ptt, pttgc, rs, true, ticon) 03.07.13

What happened this week 24/06 – 28/06


  • Household debt on upward tilt — Household debt has hit a fresh high, particularly among low income earnings, who remain widely exposed to loan sharks, says the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. The latest UTCC survey of 1,200 respondents found mot of them (64.l5%) had average household debt of Bt188,774.54, up by 12% from a year earlier and compared with Bt147,542 back in 2009. The annual growth rate has risen overall in recent years – only 2.8% in 2009 and 2.6% in 2010, jumping to 5.3% in 2011 and 4.7% last year before surging 12% in this year’s survey. (Bangkok Post, 26/06/13)
  • BoT: Be not afraid of China dip — A credit squeeze in China is unlikely to affect Thailand’s financial markets, thanks to plentiful liquidity, despite recent capital outflows, says Prasan Trairatvorakul, governor of the BoT. Mr. Prasarn said the central bank has implemented a defensive strategy in absorbing excessive liquidity, while local financial institutions continue parking their money at the central bank, , implying they still have surplus liquidity to finance their operations. (Bangkok Post, 26/06/13) Continue reading What happened this week 24/06 – 28/06

Management Trades 17/06 – 21/06

Notable Transactions:

Buy(s): THB 381 mn

  • BLAND – K. Anantttttt is back in the fold
  • GFM – This seems to be a continuation of a shift of ownership between family members
  • MAJOR – Quite interesting, it isn’t often to see K. Vichai buy shares in MAJOR and this despite the fact its not trading that cheaply
  • MINT – From what I’ve been told, Heinecke does keep a close eye on his own shares.
  • NMG – Chairman and Vice Chairman both subscribe to NMG’s new shares

Sell(s): THB 351 mn

  • DCC – Hmmm DCC has been a favourite of ours for years, need to understand why a director offload THB 70 mn worth of shares
  • GFM – See above
  • PTG – We still don’t understand why this retail petrol pump is trading @ 17x, no surprise in seeing a director liquidate THB 100mn


Stocks in the news (aot, egco, scb) 28.06.13

AOT: Expects good earnings. Airports of Thailand (AOT) expects arrivals to grow 19% this year to 85m. The company also expects 2H13 earnings to show strong yoy growth on the back of the absence of forex loss. This is because the company has swapped its yen loan to baht (worth Bt10b). (Source: Khao Hoon)

Comment: AOT had been up until 2H12 one incredibly undervalued company. But we’ve steered clear because, well, its a government owned company, fund siphoning, mismanagement of the asset is obvious…

EGCO: Acquires wind farm in Australia. The Electricity Generating Plc or EGCO Group, Thailand’s first Independent Power Producer, has an established track record of expanding its power generation portfolio in markets outside of Thailand. Sahust Pratuknukul, president of EGCO Group, said that the company’s most recent strategic investment was in a wind power project – “Boco Rock Wind Farm”, which it acquired by gaining a 100% equity interest in Asia Pacific Renewables Limited, principally owned by Continental Wind Partners, the developer of the wind farm. (Source: The Nation)

Comment: EGCO has put together an interesting portfolio, in the end though all these alternative energy investments still look too much like a pipe dream to us. Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, egco, scb) 28.06.13

Stocks in the news (cpf, kbank, true) 27.06.13


CPF slashes 5-year investment plan — CPF plans to slash its five-year investment budget by a third to US$1.6bn and pare back revenue targets, as its foreign farms are performing below expectations. It will also cut its revenue growth target to an average of 10% over the next five years from its earlier goal of up to 15%. (Bangkok Post, 27/06/13)

Comment: We’ve been sitting and waiting and waiting for this company to begin performing for the past 2 years, and I think we still may have to wait longer until the stock becomes attractive

KBANK: Loan approval rate falls as debt deepens. Deteriorating debt-repayment ability stemming from the rising household debt, especially among earners of less than Bt15,000 a month, has slightly lowered Kasikornbank’s mortgage loan approval rate. The bank’s housing loan approval rate has declined to around 50%. The impact on the bank’s loan approval rate is however limited as 80% of its customers earn more than Bt30,000 a month. (Source: Bangkok Post)

Comment: We are deeply worried about the amount of debt accumulated by low/mid income earners on the back of the first car and property scheme that the government had launched last year. Despite the minimum wage increase we don’t think that there will be much further growth on the consumer end and this will eventually negatively impact all these retailers that are trading at 20-30x PE


INTUCH wires into broadband — InTouch, formerly known as Shin Corporation, outlined a five-year strategic plan to diversify into wired broadband business to strengthen its position as an integrated telecom service provider. It plans to balance the proportion invested between wired and wireless 3G broadband business. It is considering two investment options – renting a network from a telecom service provider or building its own infrastructure. It will run the service through ADVANC. (Bangkok Post, 27/06/13)

Comment: Bye bye TRUE!