Comment: Thai econ news is just bleh

So a plethora of economic news regarding Thailand has come out over the past week and it all has pointed to the same direction which is a slowdown in growth for the country

So a quick summary of whats happened:

  • Retailers are revising down growth targets across the board (Bangkok Post)
  • Agriculture – growth expected to only be 1.5-2.5% from 4% for this year b/c of drought and EMS which killed shrimp farming (Bangkok Post)
  • GDP for this year likely to be around 4% b/c of weak exports, slowing consumption and private investment falling, plus the government’s spending is unlikely to come through until next year. One scary fact is that household debt is now 80% of GDP (Bangkok Post)

So what? Well take a simple step back and remember whats happened over the past few years, 2010 was a recovery from ’08-’09 and then just as 2011 was shaping up to look decent we had the floods in 4Q11, so 2012 was a strong recovery (I’d argue it was as if the year equated to 5 quarters worth of performance) from there with tonnes of debt being thrown at people to buy new homes, applicances, cars, condos, then companies reinvesting to get operations up and running etc etc. So now with government spending slowing down (for now), companies finally up and running, consumers over indebted it’s only natural that a slow down is happening, plus with equity valuations at “lofty-ish” levels there’s really no surprise in terms of equity market performance. So are we going to crash and burn? Nope this just reminds of 2004 when the market had a fantastic period during’03 and then the market needs time for EPS growth to catch up with the P/E levels, til it happens, stock picking is the way go :)

Stocks in the news (bam, banpu, bh, ktb, pttgc, scc, tpoly, true, vgi) 01.08.13

BAM on target for stock listing in 2014 – Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM), the state-owned debt management firm, confirmed its plan to seek listing on the Thai stock market by mid-2014. President Krit Sesavey said it is waiting for its parent Financial Institution Development Fund (FIDF) to allow it to move forward with its listing plan, and it expects approval later this year. (Bangkok Post, 01/08/13)

Comment: I am bloody interested in seeing the assets on this company’s balance sheet!

BANPU announces par split from Bt10 to Bt1 — Banpu Plc has informed the SET that the Board of Directors has approved the change of par value of the shares from Bt10 to Bt1. The registered ordinary shares will be changed from 354,050,479 shares to 3,540,504,790 shares and the paid-up ordinary shares will be changed from 271,747,855 shares to 2,717,478,550 share. This requires shareholder’s approval in the extra general meeting (EGM) to be held on 9 Sep 2013. (SET)

Comment: Well that’s one way to try and support and sagging stock price, however the fundamentals just aren’t there yet

BH Expansion in place in 2H13 — BH expects 2Q13 profits of Bt540mn and aims to expand the number of hospital and ICU beds in its old hospital in Nana in the second half of the year to help increase the number of patients and push its profits for the year to Bt2.34bn. (Khao Hoon, 01/08/13) Continue reading Stocks in the news (bam, banpu, bh, ktb, pttgc, scc, tpoly, true, vgi) 01.08.13