Thailand & Philippines still growing the best in ASEAN

I love this quarterly release from Vincent Fernando over @ Religare where they track earnings growth vs market performance on a sector basis for countries in ASEAN.

So as a quick summary this is what he sees for ASEAN

ASEAN1 

  • Banks, non-coal energy, materials , retail and telecom offer the best growth in ASEAN by sector.
  • Thailand & Philippines continue to offer the best growth by country
  • However he’s concerned by the historically high valuation multiples across ASEAN which seem to defy earnings downgrades and slowing growth

Continue reading Thailand & Philippines still growing the best in ASEAN

Stocks in the news (bay, glow, lanna, scc, ticon, vgi) 31.10.13

BAY

Credit card growth of 15% achievable — BAY expects revenues from credit cards for 2013 to reach its growth target of 15% as consumer spending picks up in 4Q13. Management expects growth for credit cards to double that of GDP growth in 2014. (Tun Hoon, 31/10/13)

GLOW

9M13 profit of Bt5.63bn, up 45% YoY — GLOW reported 9M13 net profit of Bt5.63bn, a 45% increase YoY, driven by revenues from sales and services that grew by 25% following the higher supply of electricity. (Khao Hoon, 31/10/13)

Comment: Fantastic utility holding

LANNA

Subsidiary to list in 2014 — LANNA will book gains from the IPO of its subsidiary, Thai Agro Energy, which will start trading in the stock market early in 2014. The company targets coal sales to reach 6.5mn tons for the year. (Khao Hoon, 31/10/13)

Comment: This requires some looking in to. Retail punters love a story like this. Continue reading Stocks in the news (bay, glow, lanna, scc, ticon, vgi) 31.10.13

Silly politics continues

What happened now?

Yesterday the House President called for an early bill debate today with 2nd and 3rd readings and votes by the end of this week and early next week and who sold off the market? Local institutions and prop desks (something we’ve been watching closely)…

So whats the timeline of events now?

  1. If the lower house accepts the bill there are still two more steps left, Senate voting and Constitution Court ruling
  2. Democrats are going to try their best and hold rallies today with 4 deputy leaders including K. Korn (ex FM) resigning from their posts to protest against the blanket amnesty bill.
  3. If protests get messy then we expect the government to just delay things as usual

What can we take away from all this?

Mr. T has been gone since 3Q08, this is the 4th attempt to get him back into the country but all past attempts failed between the House readings and Constitution Court hearings. “His” party, Pheu Thai, have only really been attempting half-arsed attempts to bring him back to Thailand and we still think that the majority of them are quite happy when he’s out of the country and not interrupting their daily routines, but if you look at things from Mr T’s viewpoint, he barely has any opposition today in government, the democrats are still considered weak in terms of their ability to win votes, for him this is as good a time as any to really force through an attempt to return Thailand however he’s going to have to modify the law to do so, no wonder he’s becoming more antsy.

Market impact?

Well volatility until this all clears up, if it ever does, and without the passing of the infrastructure bill, we will have a sideways range bound market til the end of year, or until LTF’s from local institutions begin to come in.

Stocks in the news (aot, bland, fvc, gold, pttep, jmart, scc) 30.10.13

AOT 

Transport Minister: Look at costs before allowing PSC rise — Chatchart Sithipun, transport minister, said he wants to take a look in detail at AOT’s cost rises before make the decision about raising passenger service charge, because there are more opponents than supporters. (Khao Hoon, 29/10/13)

Comment: i’ve been reading that there will be at least a 2 month period before anything happens with this and that there is a small chance that it could be delayed – although we doubt it

BLAND

Extra gains in 3Q on expiration of loan case — BLAND will book extra gains of Bt3.8bn in 3Q13 (Oct-Dec 2013) after expiration of the statute of limitations (10 years) on its loan case. It says profit will exceed Bt6.9-9.2bn this year. It is also planning to bid for the Pink Line early next year using the proceeds from the sale of assets to its property fund and the sale of its land on Srinakarin. (Khao Hoon, 30/10/13)

Comment: Hahaha, well if you don’t have to pay back a loan then its wonderful news.

 FVC

 FVC increases 128.33%in the first day trade — FVC closed at Bt2.74, more than double its IPO price. Its MD said 2013-2014 revenue growth would be 18-20%with a sharp growth in net profit as its business expands. (Khao Hoon, 30/10/13)

Comment: as we’ve mentioned in the past, any small ipo in Thailand performs well on its first day, but good luck getting any shares in it. Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, bland, fvc, gold, pttep, jmart, scc) 30.10.13

Upcountry growth paving the way for Thailand

This an incredibly good article on Bloomberg evidencing the growth of Thailand’s provinces ex Bangkok. Its something that we’ve thought internally for the longest time that Bangkok doesn’t have much more business growth which as been evidenced by its growth numbers, whereas the provinces are growing @ 2-3x the rate of the country’s GDP.

upcountry

Of the companies mentioned, CPN, GLOBAL and SINGER we used to be happy shareholders in all 3 although have since exited only b/c of valuations and not b/c of their businesses. Anyways see below for snippets and the link if you want to read the whole article.

Meanwhile, further to the south, Thailand’s burgeoning auto industry — in 2012 the 10th-biggest manufacturer in the world — has brought such prosperity to a region known as the eastern seaboard that one province, Rayong, has become twice as rich as Bangkok in terms of per capita income, according to government data.

Across town, the Siam Global House Pcl home-improvement center now stocks $6,000 timber-paneled Jacuzzis alongside more-mundane bathroom fittings. The local unit of U.K.-based supermarket giant Tesco Plc anchors a second shopping mall.

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks in the news (amata, aot, bcp, ea, drt, hmpro, mint, ticon) 29.10.13

AMATA

Investing Bt50-60mn in flood prevention — AMATA says it has set aside Bt50-60mn for investment in flood prevention and is currently in the process of gathering necessary information for its long-term planning and mitigation plans which is expected to take 2-3 weeks. It plans to expand reservoirs and improve floodways with help from the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT). It is not concerned about its other industrial estates since Amata Nakorn is the only industrial estate that is just 2-3 meters above sea level. (Khao Hoon, 29/10/13)

AOT

Transport Minister: Look at costs before allowing PSC rise — Chatchart Sithipun, transport minister, said he wants to consider AOT’s costs before make the decision about raising passenger service charge, because there are more opponents than supporters. (Khao Hoon, 29/10/13)

BCP

Looking to Myanmar — BCP aims to establish four to five petrol stations in Myanmar over one or two years. It said that the two obstacles are state policies and the high cost of land. It is also looking for an opportunity to establish a tank farm with PTT in the future. As for Laos, there is still licensing problems for the opening of petrol stations there. (ASTV Manager, 29/10/13)

Comment: Land costs in Myanmar especially around and within the capital cities are horrendously high as we witnessed first hand during a trip there last year. PTT is already in Myanmar via its trading arm. From what we saw with Laos, the Vietnamese and Chinese Petroleum giants already appear to have a foothold with that market. Continue reading Stocks in the news (amata, aot, bcp, ea, drt, hmpro, mint, ticon) 29.10.13

Sector Update 21/10 – 25/10

Markets been fairly quiet for the past week, mid-week break resulted in a lot of people taking time off and that was obvious in the volumes as well. Major news? Well exports for Sept were poor @ -7.1% and the BoT lowered GDP growth for 2013 n 2014 to 3.7% and 4.8% from 4.2% and 5.0% respectively. Anything to look forward to? Fed meets 29-30 Oct though nothing expected from there, and just the usual 3Q13 numbers continuing to come out. Quiet times indeed.

00sum

 

01set 02mai Continue reading Sector Update 21/10 – 25/10

Stocks in the news (ckp, cpf, fvc, gunkul, jubile, rs) 28.10.13

CKP

Turnaround in 3Q13 — CKP will post a turnaround in 3Q13 net profit to Bt170mn, driven by revenues from Nam Ngum 2 hydropower plant. The company expects net profit for the year to exceed Bt370mn. (Khao Hoon, 28/10/13)

Comment: Still an expensive entity.

CPF

Plans to go abroad to produce Asian food — CPF aims to set up factories to produce food for Asians in Europe and the U.S. It plans to set up factories in Belgium, England and the U.S. at an investment cost of Bt2-3bn. It also plans to buy distributors and eventually list on the U.S. stock exchange. (ASTV Manger, 28/10/13)

FVC

CEO expects it to exceed IPO price on first day of trade — Wichit Techakasem, CEO, believes FVC will trade above its IPO price of Bt1.2 per share when it begins trading on October 29, in response to its good fundamentals and the solidity of the food and beverage industry. (ASTV Manager, 28/10/13) Continue reading Stocks in the news (ckp, cpf, fvc, gunkul, jubile, rs) 28.10.13

Random Thoughts: The continued silliness in Thai Politics

Well now Pheu Thai has brought to the table a law that gives a blanket amnesty to law offenders, which includes everyone, yellow shirts, red shirts and good ol’ Mr T.
So what’s happened thus far:
1. The first reading was passed just under 2 months ago but aimed only at the non-leaders of the protests
2. Second reading is ready to go into parliament in early November.
3. In the meantime they are still talking about the charter amendments, the THB 2.2 trn borrowing bill etc etc
Could Pheu Thai make this all pass? Sure absolutely, the control the majority of the seats in parliament so why don’t they? Well there’s a small risk of confrontation with: Continue reading Random Thoughts: The continued silliness in Thai Politics