Thailand & Philippines still growing the best in ASEAN

I love this quarterly release from Vincent Fernando over @ Religare where they track earnings growth vs market performance on a sector basis for countries in ASEAN.

So as a quick summary this is what he sees for ASEAN

ASEAN1 

  • Banks, non-coal energy, materials , retail and telecom offer the best growth in ASEAN by sector.
  • Thailand & Philippines continue to offer the best growth by country
  • However he’s concerned by the historically high valuation multiples across ASEAN which seem to defy earnings downgrades and slowing growth

Continue reading Thailand & Philippines still growing the best in ASEAN

Stocks in the news (bay, glow, lanna, scc, ticon, vgi) 31.10.13

BAY

Credit card growth of 15% achievable — BAY expects revenues from credit cards for 2013 to reach its growth target of 15% as consumer spending picks up in 4Q13. Management expects growth for credit cards to double that of GDP growth in 2014. (Tun Hoon, 31/10/13)

GLOW

9M13 profit of Bt5.63bn, up 45% YoY — GLOW reported 9M13 net profit of Bt5.63bn, a 45% increase YoY, driven by revenues from sales and services that grew by 25% following the higher supply of electricity. (Khao Hoon, 31/10/13)

Comment: Fantastic utility holding

LANNA

Subsidiary to list in 2014 — LANNA will book gains from the IPO of its subsidiary, Thai Agro Energy, which will start trading in the stock market early in 2014. The company targets coal sales to reach 6.5mn tons for the year. (Khao Hoon, 31/10/13)

Comment: This requires some looking in to. Retail punters love a story like this. Continue reading Stocks in the news (bay, glow, lanna, scc, ticon, vgi) 31.10.13

Silly politics continues

What happened now?

Yesterday the House President called for an early bill debate today with 2nd and 3rd readings and votes by the end of this week and early next week and who sold off the market? Local institutions and prop desks (something we’ve been watching closely)…

So whats the timeline of events now?

  1. If the lower house accepts the bill there are still two more steps left, Senate voting and Constitution Court ruling
  2. Democrats are going to try their best and hold rallies today with 4 deputy leaders including K. Korn (ex FM) resigning from their posts to protest against the blanket amnesty bill.
  3. If protests get messy then we expect the government to just delay things as usual

What can we take away from all this?

Mr. T has been gone since 3Q08, this is the 4th attempt to get him back into the country but all past attempts failed between the House readings and Constitution Court hearings. “His” party, Pheu Thai, have only really been attempting half-arsed attempts to bring him back to Thailand and we still think that the majority of them are quite happy when he’s out of the country and not interrupting their daily routines, but if you look at things from Mr T’s viewpoint, he barely has any opposition today in government, the democrats are still considered weak in terms of their ability to win votes, for him this is as good a time as any to really force through an attempt to return Thailand however he’s going to have to modify the law to do so, no wonder he’s becoming more antsy.

Market impact?

Well volatility until this all clears up, if it ever does, and without the passing of the infrastructure bill, we will have a sideways range bound market til the end of year, or until LTF’s from local institutions begin to come in.

Stocks in the news (aot, bland, fvc, gold, pttep, jmart, scc) 30.10.13

AOT 

Transport Minister: Look at costs before allowing PSC rise — Chatchart Sithipun, transport minister, said he wants to take a look in detail at AOT’s cost rises before make the decision about raising passenger service charge, because there are more opponents than supporters. (Khao Hoon, 29/10/13)

Comment: i’ve been reading that there will be at least a 2 month period before anything happens with this and that there is a small chance that it could be delayed – although we doubt it

BLAND

Extra gains in 3Q on expiration of loan case — BLAND will book extra gains of Bt3.8bn in 3Q13 (Oct-Dec 2013) after expiration of the statute of limitations (10 years) on its loan case. It says profit will exceed Bt6.9-9.2bn this year. It is also planning to bid for the Pink Line early next year using the proceeds from the sale of assets to its property fund and the sale of its land on Srinakarin. (Khao Hoon, 30/10/13)

Comment: Hahaha, well if you don’t have to pay back a loan then its wonderful news.

 FVC

 FVC increases 128.33%in the first day trade — FVC closed at Bt2.74, more than double its IPO price. Its MD said 2013-2014 revenue growth would be 18-20%with a sharp growth in net profit as its business expands. (Khao Hoon, 30/10/13)

Comment: as we’ve mentioned in the past, any small ipo in Thailand performs well on its first day, but good luck getting any shares in it. Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, bland, fvc, gold, pttep, jmart, scc) 30.10.13