Stocks in the news (bgh, bjchi, mega, nusa, sena, sutha, uac) 28.11.13

BGH

Stock market watchdog fines trio nearly Bt10.5 million for misusing inside info – The Securities and Exchange Commission’s settlement committee has imposed fines totaling Bt10,488,534.01 on Thavatvong Thanasumitra for using inside information to purchase shares of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGH) and on Viporn Jitsomwang and Narumon Chainaknan for aiding and abetting Thavatvong’s wrongdoing. (The Nation, 28/11/13)

Comment: So a member of the board trades divulges insider information and likely trades for himself. Hmmm. And it’s only a THB 10 mn fine? BGH time to show proper corporate governance here.

BJCHI

BJCHI to begin trade today. The company expects to stay above its IPO price, supported by its strong fundamentals with 9M13 profit at Bt952mn. (Khao Hoon, 28/11/13)

Comment: Another pop n drop? Continue reading Stocks in the news (bgh, bjchi, mega, nusa, sena, sutha, uac) 28.11.13

Protests = Delays = Economic slowing down = Rates cut!

Pre the protests no one thought this would’ve happened, but with the protests comes delays, and the fact that the infrastructure spending hasn’t started yet, the economy is stagnant from last year, well the BOT has come out with a rate cut now down to 2.25%.

The Bank of Thailand cut its one-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25 percent, with monetary policy committee members voting six to one in favor of the decision, it said in Bangkok today. All 19 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the rate would be held.

Source: Bloomberg

This changes things, we know that there are many many property funds, reits (if the revenue department ever sorts itself out), and infrastructure funds in the pipeline waiting to be released over the next few months, and we were worried that this may hamper the market for 2014.  But with rates being cut, expect the following being pitched by brokers hello leasing sector! They’re going to have a good time, hello financials! Also may benefit. Hello property! cheaper loans! Hello discretionary spending! Consumer interest rates should drop.

Needed another catalyst for a December rally? Well here it is :)

Stocks in the news (aot, bts, cpf, psl, robins, rs) 27.11.13

AOT

2013 a good year — AOT says FY2013 was a good year, with a 20% rise in the number of tourists and 16% growth in number of flights. The CFO said there will reversal in depreciation costs for the Don Muang Airport worth Bt3bn, which will help push net profits up. The company will release its FY2013 earnings on Nov 29. (Khao Hoon, 27/11/13)

Comment: Thailand’s tourism numbers are just outstanding, has all the bad press over politics in the past few years just given Thailand free advertising?

BTS

Two big funds coming in —Two big Australian and Canadian funds will invest in BTS before the company will be included in the MSCI after the roadshow in Hong Kong is over. Both funds are confident in the business and said that current political situation in Thailand will not affect BTS’s business. They plan to invest US$10bn in this region, including Thailand. (Khao Hoon, 27/11/13)

Comment: We now question BTS as a viable holding going forward, with the sale of its main skytrain route to the IFF, what else do they have on their books? Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, bts, cpf, psl, robins, rs) 27.11.13

Random Thoughts: Next time I’ll go take over the MOF

Yesterday the total traded volume in the SET nearly hit THB 50 bn, a level of volume we haven’t seen for a few months, what happened here? MSCI Index rebalancing (BTS and TMB), foreigners sold off THB 9 bn worth of shares, but the market still rose as retail investors, local institutions and local prop desks picked up everything, we’ve always joked “We buy when the foreigners sell, and we sell when the foreigners buy”

The Thai Baht has now weakened past THB/USD 32 levels, we now wonder aloud when brokers begin touting export related companies

The 1,350 has been the unofficial level of lore for the SET, providing technical support for the past few months, we still see it holding.

We’re seeing good bargains in the market and decent dividend yields coming back, but does bad sentiment override good value? Something to think about when looking @ the auto sector.

Protests..ok still in the news, the Ministry of Finance was overtaken by 40 protestors! Yup only 40 according to the news, this kind of inspires me, the next time the MoF makes a silly decision I’ll round up my analysts and back office team to rule the MOF for the day.

We still don’t see Pheu Thai stepping down, they’ve enforced the Internal Security Act, a snap election or dissolution of parliament will most likely result in less seats, why would they want to give up power, and finally some people are mentioning it, but the Kings Birthday is on the 5th December, does Suthep really think he’s going to run protests during that day?

Year end rally? Has it disappeared? Will it come back? questions in our minds, we see two catalysts, protests going away & LTF’s.

Stocks in the news (ccp, centel, drt, jas, mbk) 26.11.13

CCP       

2013 profit of Bt350mn — CCP said it will book net profit of Bt350mn in 2013, with extras in 4Q13 pushing up growth sharply. Revenue in 2013 is put at Bt3bn and it will invest Bt200mn next year with revenue growth of 15% YoY. (Khao Hoon, 26/11/13)

CENTEL

2014 revenue growth 15-20% — CENTEL expects 2014 revenue growth of 15-20% YoY from Bt17bn in 2013 on continued growth in its hotels plus a rise in room price. It also expands hotel and restaurant business worth Bt1.2bn. (Kao Hoon, 26/11/13)

Comment: The hotel expansion growth has come mainly from management contracts in the past few years and they have done wonderfully well from it

DRT       

DRT says no SCC takeover —SCC is said to be in negotiations to buy stake in DRT, which is expected to be included in the MSCI Global Small Cap Indices. DRT management rejected news on a SCC takeover. (Khao Hoon, 26/11/13)

Comment: Ah so now we know why the stock price had spiked a few days ago. Continue reading Stocks in the news (ccp, centel, drt, jas, mbk) 26.11.13

Sector Update 18/11 – 22/11

Well politics pressured the entire market in the past week, foreign investors sold another THB 9 bn, and there was speculation that the massive Vayupak Fund will sell out before its expiration on 30th Nov, only 5 weeks left for the year and the market is down YTD, how much can LTF’s support the market in the next month?

00sum

 

01set 02mai

Continue reading Sector Update 18/11 – 22/11

Management Trades 18/11 – 22/11

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 403 mn

  • BGH – Dr. Praserttttttttttttttttttttt still buying THB 389 mn worth of shares

Sell(s) THB 110 mn

  • ARROW – The CEO sells THB 60 mn ? hmmm there isn’t enough liquidity for him to do that in day, who’s the buyer here?
  • CHG – K. Apirum is still selling shares, we’ve wondered aloud for a while if this is a sale to BGH
  • CPALL – Chairman of Excom and Vice Chairman unloads THB 21 mn

131125 mgmt_trades

Stocks in the news (amata, global, irpc, jas, nyt, wha) 25.11.13

AMATA

New contracts to boost 4Q13 land sales — AMATA expects land sales in 4Q13 to surge, boosted by new contract signing. Currently, the company has 2,000 rai land ready to be transferred, and it is keeping its year end target land sales of 3,000 rai. It said it aims to invest in an industrial estate in Dawei, Myanmar. (Khao Hoon, 25/11/13)

GLOBAL

Tops in its sector — GLOBAL is doing the best in the Commerce sector, with net profit expected to grow 47% YoY and recovery in 4Q13. It will add three more branches to bring total branches to 29 in 2013, pushing up net profit 55% YoY to Bt942mn. (Khao Hoon, 25/11/13)

Comment: Where’s the slowdown upcountry? We don’t see it much, yes agricultural prices are dropping so farmers make less however business is booming there and we believe it offsets a lot of things, Bangkok is the city that is having trouble with consumer debt. Continue reading Stocks in the news (amata, global, irpc, jas, nyt, wha) 25.11.13

Potential changes to SET50 and SET100

The clever folks at Thanachart Securities put this out during the week as the changes in the SET50 and SET 100 are expected in the 2nd week of December ’13. Basically new additions in the SET 50 include VGI & THCOM replacing KKP & MAKRO, and for the SET100 +BMCL, CHG, ERW, N-PARK, TFD, TICON, UMI, replacing -DEMCO, GSTEL, MAKRO, MALEE, MDX, PF, SAT

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Source: Thanachart Securities Plc

Random Thoughts: Politcs and Fed giving the market an excuse to sell off

What has happened thus far?

Well as a positive the Senate had passed through the THB 2 trn borrowing bill however the Democrats and a group of 66 lawmakers filed a case to the constitutional court to invalidate the bill as they believe the loan bill contravenes Section 169 of the constitution as it would allow spending outside the normal budgetary system. The Constitutional Court in the meantime has ruled that the government’s effort to amend the selection process and the size of the Senate as unconstitutional and this has led to uncertainty over the fate of the incumbent administration and even though the court declined to dissolve the coalition parties that voted for the bill, because of the potential numerous breaches of articles of the Constitution throughout the legislative process there may be filings of criminal charges.

Then Pheu Thai Party has rejected the court’s ruling on the charter amendentment draft and will seek the impeachment of the court judges

And now other political rubbish came from Suthep vowing to root up the “Thaksin” system by 24 November (tomorrow!) and calls for 1 million protestors to join the rally tomorrow, now how exactly he’s going to do this we don’t know, but we admire his ambition.

AND the World Bank is cutting its for Thailand’s GDP this year on a sluggish 3rd quarter and weak export with a new figure expected next month, the bank has already dimmed its outlook on Thailand’s 2013 GDP from 4.5% down to a rise of 4%.

AND someone from the Fed mentioned that tapering may be on the cards at the next meeting however others in the Fed have then come out saying that the data were not strong enough to change market expectations that the Fed will taper stimulus early next year.

What may happen going forward?

So whats happening going forward? Well Pheu Thai is in a funk at the moment, was it Mr. T’s plan all along for this who knows, but it seems like their hands are tied with perceptions in Bangkok and provinces waning in regards to the party’s legitimacy which only damages its credibility and may hinder its ability to execute policy, would a house dissolution followed by an election next year be on hand? Perhaps…

Re the World Bank, we know 2013 is crap relative to 2012, why? Its already November! And 2012 was a remarkable year that had so many things going for it. The fact that we still have growth is impressive.

The Thai market has been taking a beating in the past week and in reality basically since May ’13, why? Well the economy has been pumped with the steroids of consumption policies in 2011-12 and the government’s plan to push through its own spending on infrastructure haven’t quite panned out; AND we have this political rubbish yet again; AND we have continued downgrades of the country growth; AND in all honesty the market still isn’t cheap, its fair at the very best.

So going forward, fund managers/investors locally are all praying that LTF’s will buoy the market in December other than that, unless the protesters disappear, there aren’t any catalysts left for the end of the year, its really time to just focus on 2014.