What the JAS?

What happened?

So the news came out two days ago after the market closed that the Supreme Court ruled to overturn the Central Bankruptcy Court’s ruling of 10 years ago in 2003. Now the Bankruptcy Court had approved JAS’s Business Reorganisation Plan in August 2003 and JAS had completed its restructuring plan and was out of the rehab plan in Sept ’06.

So what?

Well they could have to pay back the entire THB 8-8.5bn plus 7% interest for the past few years

Ohhhhh that sounds painful, what are their options?

From what we’ve read seems like there are 3 options

  • JAS has to pay back all Bt8-8.5bn plus 7% interest rate for the past 10 years, this will cut JAS’s value by Bt2/share.
  • Exclude the Bt1.8bn haircut of the debt JAS borrowed from its own subsidiary. This implies a cut in JAS’s value of Bt1.6/share.
  • JAS’s legal advisor interprets the maximum repayment of only Bt1.3bn or Bt0.2/share.

What else is happening with the co?

They’ve been touting their infrastructure fund with a targeted size of THB 60bn – 70bn by the end of this year. This time line is rubbish in our viewpoint, we haven’t heard any movements with this yet by any Asset Management house or IB team, and if True can’t get their own IF out yet (announced before JAS), how on earth could JAS? There is no way they’ll have it done by year-end.

Anything else?

Investors are surprised, both retail and institutions, hence the stock price dropping some 15% in two days and it has been a darling for the past few years amongst several groups. Talking with friends/colleagues, I just don’t understand their margins they seem quite high when compared to any other firm in the world, yes I’ve been told we are wrong esp with the stock price gone up multiple folds, but lets see what unfolds here. The trust and confidence in this company from investors seems to have disappeared for now.

What happened this week 28/10 – 01/11

Thailand

  • Shrimp, industrial goods lead 7% export decline – Thailand’s exports fell by 7.09% YoY in September, bringing the nine-month expansion rate to a marginal 0.05%. With it, the Commerce Ministry admitted yesterday the country will likely end the year with shipments far from its growth target range of 3-4%. (Bangkok Post, 26/10/13)
  • BoT ditches growth forecast – The Bank of Thailand slashed its 2013 Thai economic growth projection to 3.7% from 4.2% predicted in July, dropping export growth to 1% from 4%, but how long the trough will last is unknown, says a senior official. (Bangkok Post, 26/10/13)
  • Thai National Shippers’ Council targets 2014 exports growth at 5-7% as 1H14 forward orders come in. It believes this is due to the beginning of consumption recovery for major economic powers such as the EU, US, China, and Japan. It also cautions that major international economic issues may cause the number to under shoot the target level. (Kao Sod, 28/10/13) Continue reading What happened this week 28/10 – 01/11

Stocks in the news (bland, cpf, jas, stec, top) 01.11.13

BLAND

Bangkok Land condo taps area’s growth – SET-listed Bangkok Land Plc (BLAND) is developing the second phase of its Double Lake condominium project in Muang Thong Thani to cater to higher demand in northern Bangkok. The new phase, worth ~Bt525mn, will comprise two buildings with a combined 298 units priced from Bt1.99mn. It will target buyers who work around Muang Thong Thani and Chaeng Watthana Road, managing director Peter Kanjanapas said yesterday. (Bangkok Post, 01/11/13)

Comment: Small impact on the overall numbers for the company, but they do have a massive landbank still on hand with which to work with.

CPF

Expanding outlets via wholesale — CPF is to continue expanding its medium-small size restaurants business through wholesale channel. It will introduce four new food product groups in MAKRO’s Horeca 2013 fair. (Khao Hoon, 01/11/13)

JAS

JAS could face massive debt repayment in excess of B8bn – Jasmine International Plc (JAS) may need to pay back more than Bt8bn baht plus interest after the Supreme Court overturned its business rehabilitation plan, say stock analysts. The Bankruptcy Court approved the plan 11 years ago, with 70% haircuts on JAS’s Bt11.8bn debt. (Bangkok Post, 01/11/13)

Comment: Comments on this to come later today Continue reading Stocks in the news (bland, cpf, jas, stec, top) 01.11.13