Don’t be tools and fools of the elites

K. Voranai as usual wrote a very good op-ed on the current state of politics and the protests going on today.

But back to Suthep & Co, who aim to temporarily suspend democracy to remove Thaksin & Co for good, and then bring back the sort of democracy that makes sure Suthep & Co will win for good. Then they may also claim democratic legitimacy. It would still be the same system, just with a different set of ruling elites.

Source: Bangkok Post

And now to ramble, two dead last night in clashes and several more injured, politicians obviously don’t care, the gap between the have and have-nots keeps widening, if this country wasn’t Buddhist things would’ve escalated at a much faster pace, and who’s to say it won’t in the future, because with politicians, elites whatever you want to call them still continue to bitch and whine whenever they aren’t in charge nor get their kickbacks nor get their government projects, what’s the point of having a government?

The Race is On

This week’s latest memo from Howard Mark’s of Oaktree Capital is a must read, as opposed to most articles which are about “Bubble! Bubble!” or “This is 2007!”, there is a far more nuance and thought in his analysis and I’ll show this short quote below, and highly recommend you read the rest of his memo.

In short, its my belief that when investors take on added risks – whether because of increased optimism or because they’re coerced to do so (as now) – they often forget to apply the caution they should. That’s bad for them. But if we’re not cognizant of the implications, it can also be bad for the rest of us.

Source: Oaktree Capital

REITs to start on schedule

REITs will change the landscape quite a fair bit for several companies with income-recurring assets on hand, the ability to leverage (something which property funds can only do up to 10%) will allow firms like Ticon and CPN amongst several others to further expand without requiring an equity increase. But the delay has been in regards to the transfer tax and withholding taxes on dividends.

REITs are set to replace property funds from next Jan 1, but the tax issue has raised concerns about a lukewarm welcome from investors.

Source: Bangkok Post

Moody’s slashes True’s family rating

We’ve longed wondered how long this will take, and now with their upcoming IFF which has the funniest terms you’ll ever read for a fund, what rate would investors be willing to pay? Plus I still think the company is worth less than 0 baht/share

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family rating of True Corporation and the corporate family and senior unsecured bond ratings of its consolidated subsidiary True Move to B3 from B2.

Moody’s also placed all ratings under review for further downgrades.

“The move reflects the prolonged character of True Corporation’s negative free cash flow (FCF) due to weak earnings from the mobile business and a high level of capital expenditures. As a result, we expect its financial and liquidity profiles to remain under pressure in the coming 12-18 months,” said Yoshio Takahashi, a Moody’s assistant vice-president.

 Source: Bangkok Post

What happened this week 25/11 – 29/11


  • Rate cut to offset mounting risks, growth also slashed to 3% from 3.7% — The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unexpectedly lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday to 2.25% following rising downside risks to growth partly triggered by the ongoing political tensions. (Bangkok Post, 28/11/13)
  • Export growth this year to be only 1% Commerce – The Commerce Ministry now expects export growth this year to end up at 1% at the most, after shipments in the first 10 months declined by 0.02% YoY. (The Nation, 28/11/13)
  • FTI expects growth in 2014 — The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said that it expects Thai industry to continue growing moving into 2014, including automotive, food and construction materials sectors, which will grow supported by the growth in the Thai economy and the global recovery. (Khao Hoon, 28/11/13) Continue reading What happened this week 25/11 – 29/11

Stocks in the news (bmcl, cpn, pttgc, sat, tmb, tta) 29.11.13


SRT advised not to take BMCL rights offer — The SRT’s financial advisor has concluded that SRT should not inject equity into BMCL, as it will remain in control despite the dilution of its holding to 14% if it does not take the capital increase rights offering. SRT will host a meeting today to discuss the finding. (Khao Hoon, 29/11/13)

Comment: We’re always happy whenever state enterprises have less control of companies


Sale of asset to fund to bring Bt5bn extra gain — CPN will book extra gain estimated at Bt5bn from selling its Chiang Mai department store to CPNRF in 4Q13. (Khao Hoon, 29/11/13)


PTTGC to increase aromatic production from its second plant — This will bring its annual capacity to 1.2mn tons per annum. The expansion will cost US$128mn, and the project will be competed in 2014. (Khao Hoon, 29/11/13) Continue reading Stocks in the news (bmcl, cpn, pttgc, sat, tmb, tta) 29.11.13