2014 – Now what’s going to happen?

Predictions for 2014 by the major investment banks have started floating around, local houses should be releasing them shortly too, so here are my intelligent thoughts:

We will still have a silly amount of liquidity flowing around the world, tapering isn’t tightening, Japan is unleashing a massive amount, Europe may even use negative rates, so low interest rates are going to be around for a while. 

Yingluck may learn how to talk coherently in public

Thailand seems to have a year of political trouble and a natural disaster, then a year of silence, followed by another year of political troubles and natural disasters, will 2014 be the quiet year again?

Suthep will create an orange shirt movement

Is 2014 going to be the end of huge overweightings in consumers, teleco’s and banks? We think so, banks don’t have the benefit of corporate income tax reduction, telco’s dividend yields may help but both top and bottom line numbers are looking weaker, and consumers, 20-30x pe stocks with single to low double digit numbers, argh I can’t wait to see BIGC back @ 120; so what could move? Food, well we’ve had the double whammy of shrimp diseases and chicken oversupply and TUF and CPF are the biggest names in this sector, and energy may very well make a decent come back, but none of the major names have made any moves in capex so hmmm. We’ve thought that 2013 was similar to 2004 in terms of performance, 2005-6 were quiet years as well, will it be the same for 2014-5? 

Corruption will totally disappear in Thailand, the education system will improve tremendously, Politicians will actually work for the people instead of their own pockets, and then this country will achieve its potential, argh I should stop dreaming…  

Ichitan, two others putting IPOs on ice until early next year

With the continued political noise, holidays coming around and the market not being as buoyant as it was in the beginning of the year, a lot of the bigger ipo’s and IFF’s and property funds have been put off to next year, and of course politics doesn’t have an impact on the smaller names, it’s because they are punted and manipulated heavily, why doesn’t the SEC do anything? The conspiracy theorist in us says that, they would lose out on too many fees and not enough companies would list on the SET, but would you trust a business owner that willingly allows is shares to be played around with…we don’t…

He said 32 companies have listed on the SET and the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) this year, adding 270 billion baht in market cap, and an additional seven companies with a combined market cap of 80-90 billion baht are set to seek a listing by year-end.

Among the seven, G Capital will debut on the MAI next Wednesday, CP Tower Growth Leasehold Property Fund will begin trading on Dec 16, Ticon Industrial Growth Leasehold Property Fund will make its first day of trade on Dec 18, and SPVI, an Apple Inc distributor, will begin MAI trade on Dec 19.

Source: Bangkok Post

What happened this week 02/12 – 05/12


Consumer confidence dips yet again – Consumer confidence hit a 22-month low in November due largely to political tensions and anti-government protests that held back spending. (Bangkok Post, 04/12/13)

Rice: Corruption, yes, but not enough evidence — The NACC says there isn’t enough evidence to file corruption charges against all parties in the G2G rice deal. However it said there is definitely some corruption involved, so will further investigate five more parties involved in the transaction. (Krungtep Thurakit, 04/12/13)

Conflicts put rating in jeopardy, credit downgrade on cards if unrest persists – Two international credit rating agencies have warned that Thailand’s sovereign rating is at risk if the political unrest is prolonged, says finance permanent secretary Rangsan Sriworasart. (Bangkok Posts, 04/12/13)

Continue reading What happened this week 02/12 – 05/12

Ticon factoring in scheduled asean integration

Ticon Industrial Connection Plc was established in 1990 to fill a need in the market for ready-built factories for lease. Ticon’s factories and warehouses are located in major industrial estates and in key areas in Thailand. Managing director Virapan Pulges discusses the company’s strategy and outlook.

ticon_picVirapan: Protests may hit property fund

Please explain Ticon’s business model.

Ticon has two main businesses _ developing factories and warehouses for rent. The warehouses for rent are operated under Ticon Logistics Park Co Ltd (TPARK). We try to be a one-stop service to our customers by offering multiple choices of location and our expertise on which location suits their industry best. For factories we are located within 15 industrial estates, and for warehouses and distribution centres we have 28 locations, both inside and outside industrial estates in locations that are connected to major highways, railway lines and so forth. We offer factories ranging from 1,200 to 10,000 square metres and warehouses from 1,200 to 25,000 sq m but are also able to provide custom-built facilities should a customer require it. Continue reading Ticon factoring in scheduled asean integration