Predictions for 2014 by the major investment banks have started floating around, local houses should be releasing them shortly too, so here are my intelligent thoughts:
We will still have a silly amount of liquidity flowing around the world, tapering isn’t tightening, Japan is unleashing a massive amount, Europe may even use negative rates, so low interest rates are going to be around for a while.
Yingluck may learn how to talk coherently in public
Thailand seems to have a year of political trouble and a natural disaster, then a year of silence, followed by another year of political troubles and natural disasters, will 2014 be the quiet year again?
Suthep will create an orange shirt movement
Is 2014 going to be the end of huge overweightings in consumers, teleco’s and banks? We think so, banks don’t have the benefit of corporate income tax reduction, telco’s dividend yields may help but both top and bottom line numbers are looking weaker, and consumers, 20-30x pe stocks with single to low double digit numbers, argh I can’t wait to see BIGC back @ 120; so what could move? Food, well we’ve had the double whammy of shrimp diseases and chicken oversupply and TUF and CPF are the biggest names in this sector, and energy may very well make a decent come back, but none of the major names have made any moves in capex so hmmm. We’ve thought that 2013 was similar to 2004 in terms of performance, 2005-6 were quiet years as well, will it be the same for 2014-5?
Corruption will totally disappear in Thailand, the education system will improve tremendously, Politicians will actually work for the people instead of their own pockets, and then this country will achieve its potential, argh I should stop dreaming…