Thailand earnings likely to be downgraded

The clever fellow that is Vincent Fernando over @ Religare put out his latest paper tracking ASEAN earnings, he states that “Thai 2014 earnings have been cut 6.1% over the last 6 months, but further cuts are likely. It appears as if 2014 numbers have yet to be cut in response to the worsening political situation in the country most recently… Hence we believe that, across ASEAN, Thai 2014 earnings are most at risk of downgrade”

All facts that are undeniable.

thailanddowngradeSource: Religare, 20/01/14

Malaysia trying to grab more investments

Last month Toyota said that they would be investing more into Indonesia for certain models, this despite an awful infrastructure system, and now Malaysia is looking for more investments from the auto sector as well. So will Thailand see less investment going forward? What impact will this have on SAT, TRU, STANLY and IHL on their growth?

Malaysia will selectively seek foreign investments that bring advanced technology and offer customised incentives to attract companies, according to M Madani Sahari, chief executive officer of the Malaysia Automotive Institute, a unit of the trade ministry. Under the previous policy, the licenses only allowed for the manufacture of vehicles that had engines 1.8 litres or bigger, he said.

Source: The Nation

Stocks in the news (aot, ps, ratch, seafco, thai, tta) 22.01.14


No infrastructure fund — AOT denies the rumor that it is going to set up an infrastructure fund. It says that AOT’s financials are sound with cash on hand of Bt40bn and profit of Bt11bn annually. Revenue this year is expected to grow by 10% and earnings for 1Q14 will hit Bt3.3bn. (Khao Hoon, 22/01/14)

Comment: Et voila, rumour bunked


PS targets 2014 revenues to grow by 25% to Bt40-42bn supported by presales ready to be transferred of Bt37.8bn, with Bt20.7bn expected to be realized this year. It targets presales of Bt41-45bn and plans to launch 40-50 projects worth Bt50bn. (Khao Hoon, 22/01/14)

Comment: 25% growth in what many consider to be a slowing property market? Possible, but then who loses market share? Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, ps, ratch, seafco, thai, tta) 22.01.14

State of Emergency – Impact?

Last night the Government announced a State of Emergency, our first thoughts, other than being a bit more worried about violence, is what happenend to the market last time?


The market had dropped just over -3% that day, the market backdrop is slightly different in that during 2010 the market was still rallying from the ’09 lows, whereas today we have already come off some 20-30% since the market peak in May ’13. Lets see what unfolds.

As for the impact of the state of emergency on us?

  • Well police and military have more power to remove protestors
  • The government can block the media, censor protestors etc etc
  • If violence gets out of hand will the military step in and do a coup? We still think not

It’s going to be a funny day