Byron Wein’s latest commentary is out and he’s advised to be prepared for a volatile here, here he reviews his 2013 surprises, his thoughts on emerging markets, the US economy, Japan’s “third arrow”, interest rates and so forth. See below for a snippet and a direct link to the article.
In the second Surprise I thought that the economic momentum that was building in the latter part of 2013 would continue and that the U.S. economy would show growth in excess of 3%. I also said that the unemployment rate would drop to 6% by year-end. I had no idea that it would decline .3% in December, but that was primarily because the participation rate dropped. I thought the unemployment rate would improve while the participation rate normalized to a somewhat higher level. I expected the Federal Reserve to continue to reduce its monthly bond-buying program without having a negative impact on either the economy or the stock market. Last spring, when then–Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested he might taper, both the bond and stock markets reacted sharply, but in December when the first wave of tapering was actually announced, stocks continued to rise. That’s because, by then, investors knew a reduction in bond-buying was coming but the economy itself was doing better. As long as that is the case, further reductions in the Fed’s accommodation should be absorbed by the financial markets without a dislocation.