Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Its not often that I post IMF working papers, but I found this one to be particularly interesting because of its linkages in trends of growth with demographics, labour, education and so forth and it does help to give a good snapshot of the region.

 

Honey I broke the bank

broken-piggy-bank-small-1That must’ve been the first thing that came across the mind of the President of the Government Saving’s Bank (GSB) this morning as he awoke to the the news that THB 30 billion had been withdrawn from the bank.

Backstory?

Well very simply the GSB had recently provided a loan of THB 5 bn to the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) via the usual inter bank market, which the BAAC were then going to use to pay the farmers for the late rice payments.

This resulted in quite a few a depositers of GSB being worried that their deposits were used to pay farmers and decided to go and withdraw some THB 30 bn in a day! As a result of this it appears that the GSB and BAAC are backpedaling on their earlier promises.

Anything to worry about?

No, there’s still plenty of liquidity within the Thai Banking System, the GSB is guaranteed  by the Government (how ironic), so any noise about a liquidity crunch is something that we shoo away. But there are several thousands of farmers that haven’t been paid what they’ve been promised. Social Unrest? Thai Spring?

Other thoughts?

Thaksin prides himself on running a country like a CEO, well Thailand is a prime example of what happens when the boss isn’t around to make sure his staff are doing their jobs.

Stocks in the news (cgd, intuch, gunkul, lalin, thai, tta) 18.02.14

CGD

CGD going ahead with its 36 rai Landmark Waterfront project located close to the Chaopraya river. It is ready to open the showroom for this luxury condominium after the go-ahead from Exim Bank, which has approved a loan for the Bt15bn project. CGD will use Beijing Construction Engineering Group as contractor. (Khao Hoon, 18/02/14)

Comment: This family has been waiting to do this project since pre-’97, I’m curious as to how it turns out. Mkt cap today is THB 8 bn, not quite worth a punt yet.

INTUCH

INTUCH reported 2013 net profit of Bt14.57bn, up 5.7% YoY, supported by ADVANC’s rise in net profit. It has announced a dividend of Bt2.16, XD on April 1. The company targets revenue growth of 5-7% this year. (Khao Hoon, 18/02/14)

Comment: Essentially this is just ADVANC but @ a higher yield.

GUNKUL

Buys shares in Korat wind power — GUNKUL purchased almost all of a 60MW wind power plant in Nakorn Ratchasima worth Bt432mn. Commercial operations are scheduled to begin in 1Q16. (Khao Hoon, 18/2/14) Continue reading Stocks in the news (cgd, intuch, gunkul, lalin, thai, tta) 18.02.14