Random Thoughts: Bangkok Shutdown over

So the PDRC has decided to stop the Bangkok Shutdown but still continue protesting in 4 areas including Lumpini Park but Asok and Rajaprasong and now clear. Suthep says it’s not a sign of weakness, really? Every protest site has looked incredibly empty for the past month, he hasn’t run around the streets looking for donations (maybe people finally realised that the funds just went to supporting him versus the farmers) and the police were supposedly going to crack down hard on them in the coming weeks. In the end I still see the protests slowly going away, want an example of a proper protest, rally and change of government, have a look at the Ukraine.

Red shirts are still rallying/marching upcountry, now to the tune of 10,000 people, however the media hasn’t focused upon this much, it does go to show that the political spectrum in Thailand has changed forever.

No one has really mentioned this, but the BOI has been shutdown and unable to issue new permits to companies that want to invest/expand in Thailand, so for the 1Q14 we have had zero FDI, government spending has been minimal, consumer spending minimal, wouldn’t be surprised to hear/read “technical recession” headlines in the coming weeks.

So how strong is this rally going to be Monday? Thinking aloud, airlines and hotels may be due for a pop, but can it be sustained? A trip to Centara in Pattaya during the week showed a hotel still bustling with visitors and the CFO of CENTEL confirmed that everywhere except Bangkok is still experiencing occupancy rates above 85%. Also discussions with the major Local Asset Management firms in Thailand led us to believe that several still has more cash than they wish and they have to put them to work plus they are lagging the market already after just 2 months – how quickly will they have to play catch up?

In the coming weeks we have the NACC hopefully announcing a verdict re Yingluck and the rice scheme (funny how that Government to government deal magically disappeared the moment this case was accepted).

Warren Buffet’s Annual Letter is out!

Have nothing to do this Sunday morning? Warren Buffet’s latest annual letter is just out and here’s an excerpt and a link to the full letter :)

I tell these tales to illustrate certain fundamentals of investing:

  • You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick “no.”
  • Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering. If you don’t feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset’s future earnings, just forget it and move on. No one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility. But omniscience isn’t necessary; you only need to understand the actions you undertake.

Source: Berkshire Hathaway