Tourism numbers down down, but BTS ridership is up!

tourism2014International Tourist arrivals came out down 8% YoY for Feb and thats grabbed all the headlines, but tourism related stocks (hotels, airlines) have been doing very well in the past 1-2 months b/c all the news re the protests have already been priced in since the first week of the year. The question we’ve been asked is if Thailand’s tourism market will recover, well, yes it will, just how quickly (i.e. 1-3 months or 6-12 months) is something we don’t know

Image Source: Department of Tourism

BTS BTS BTS, with more carriages and more routes opening, there should be no surprise that the YoY growth numbers (this time +20%) continue to look good.

bts_feb14Image Source: BTS

Songkran in Singapore eh..?!

singapore_songkranThis was going around all of the social media feeds yesterday afternoon, Singapore is hosting a Songkran event! And then Thai’s begun shouting about how Singapore is stealing a Thai tradition, well no, its not a Thai tradition, it exists in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia, as well as in Sri Lanka and India (off the top of my head).

Now we fully expect the Tourism Authority of Thailand to come out saying that this isn’t a threat…well it is:

  • Thailand’s tourism numbers get a boost during the April period and that naturally is positive for airlines, hotels, local businesses etc etc, if this goes away well thats another bump in GDP that disappears.
  • Singapore can host incredibly good parties, despite the thinking is that its a neutered country, they have the casino’s, the F1, an organised “safer” country. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Singapore hosting this event with growing popularity every year, hell I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thai people fly to Singapore to celebrate Songkran there!
  • The issue here in Thailand is the same as it has always been, zero progress, with a mindset that says “it’s good enough”  when really, it isn’t.

Source: Celebrate Songkran

Stocks in the news (aav, banpu, gunkul, kbs, mk, n-park, pace, ptg, thcom)

AAV

Thai AirAsia to begin major push to lure back tourists – Thai AirAsia is preparing to work with the AirAsia network regionally to promote Thailand more aggressively to revive a stable flow of foreign tourists into the Kingdom after it was hit by prolonged political turmoil, while in the process meeting its cabin-factor projection of 84% this year. (The Nation, 18/03/14)

Comment: Out of the 3 listed firms, AAV, NOK and THAI, AAV is the best managed one.

BANPU

Banpu targets power plants, acquisitions to boost electricity generation assets to 35% of total — Banpu is expected to acquire one or two power plants this year, while targeting assets from the power-generation business to reach 35% of the total by 2016, up from 25% now. (The Nation, 18/03/14)

Comment: Well they need to, coal prices are in a continued slump since 2008

GUNKUL

GUNKUL expects revenues of Bt3bn, growth of at least 50%, supported by its backlog worth almost Bt2bn. The company will bid for new projects worth Bt2-3bn and expects to receive at least 20% of the work. Exports to Myanmar this year are expected to reach Bt500mn. (Khao Hoon, 18/03/14) Continue reading Stocks in the news (aav, banpu, gunkul, kbs, mk, n-park, pace, ptg, thcom)