Random Thoughts: Bangkok Shutdown over

So the PDRC has decided to stop the Bangkok Shutdown but still continue protesting in 4 areas including Lumpini Park but Asok and Rajaprasong and now clear. Suthep says it’s not a sign of weakness, really? Every protest site has looked incredibly empty for the past month, he hasn’t run around the streets looking for donations (maybe people finally realised that the funds just went to supporting him versus the farmers) and the police were supposedly going to crack down hard on them in the coming weeks. In the end I still see the protests slowly going away, want an example of a proper protest, rally and change of government, have a look at the Ukraine.

Red shirts are still rallying/marching upcountry, now to the tune of 10,000 people, however the media hasn’t focused upon this much, it does go to show that the political spectrum in Thailand has changed forever.

No one has really mentioned this, but the BOI has been shutdown and unable to issue new permits to companies that want to invest/expand in Thailand, so for the 1Q14 we have had zero FDI, government spending has been minimal, consumer spending minimal, wouldn’t be surprised to hear/read “technical recession” headlines in the coming weeks.

So how strong is this rally going to be Monday? Thinking aloud, airlines and hotels may be due for a pop, but can it be sustained? A trip to Centara in Pattaya during the week showed a hotel still bustling with visitors and the CFO of CENTEL confirmed that everywhere except Bangkok is still experiencing occupancy rates above 85%. Also discussions with the major Local Asset Management firms in Thailand led us to believe that several still has more cash than they wish and they have to put them to work plus they are lagging the market already after just 2 months – how quickly will they have to play catch up?

In the coming weeks we have the NACC hopefully announcing a verdict re Yingluck and the rice scheme (funny how that Government to government deal magically disappeared the moment this case was accepted).

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