We have elections!

So the political parties have come together and agreed with the Election Commission to finally re-hold elections on the 20th July!

The Election Commission (EC) and the caretaker government on Tuesday settled on a new election date of July 20 after caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her team promised to follow conditions.

politicians

Mind you the Democrats do have to actually run this time and I don’t see what excuse they can give to skipping another election (which then by law requires for their party to be disbanded)

Image Source: Bangkok Post

Comment: You have to know these dates

As the political merrygoround (with Abhisit now coming out and stating that there have to be reforms to ensure that losers in an election can still block a winning party) continues there are several potential key dates that are coming up, let’s go through them all.

  • Friday 2 May – The Thawil case – Yingluck has to submit her defence
  • Friday 2 May to Sat 10 May – Senate Meeting (yes they work on weekends) – They need to spend a week to decide on an appointment of one position for the Administrative Court and one for the NACC
  • 8 May or 13 May – Rice Case – The NACC has said that they will make a decision on the rice case against Yingluck on these days.
  • 20 July – Election – The EC has agreed in principal – the Democrats may finally be democratic and join in the election (and most likely lose)

Potential market scenarios?

  • Yingluck out – market up, election goes ahead – sell on fact? But market continues to recover
  • Yingluck in, wins election, democrats and suthep accept defeat – market up up up
  • Yingluck in, wins election, democracts and suthep don’t accept defeat – yawn zzz, repeat of the past 6 months
  • Yingluck in, loses election – *scoff* *laugh out loud* *snort* this won’t happen

Bra’s just don’t sell anymore

wacoalSales of Wacoal, a popular lingerie brand among Thais, dropped by 12% to 1 billion baht in the first four months this year, the biggest drop in its 44 years here, because of lower demand attributed to the prolonged political conflicts. 

Source: Bangkok Post

Well there you ago, car’s aren’t selling, properties aren’t being sold, and now EVEN one of the most popular lingerie brands can’t sell their bra’s nor their panties anymore because of politics, shutdown’s of malls, and the decline in agricultural prices.

Stocks in the news (ck, cpn, demco, hemraj, match, pm, sena, thcom) 30.04.14

CK

Good 1Q14 — CK says 1Q14 revenue was good, supported by backlog of Bt110bn. It reaffirms that revenue will surpass Bt30bn this year. It expects to sign for additional work worth Bt22bn. CK’s shareholders have also given the green light for an increase in the debenture amount that CK can issue by Bt8bn from Bt17bn. (Khao Hoon, 30/04/14)

Comment: He’s also just come out in the news saying that there could be a 70% drop in total project value available in the market from THB 700 bn to THB 200 bn

CPN

CPN plans B6bn lifestyle mall – Despite the shaky political climate, Central Pattana Plc (CPN), the SET-listed property and retail developer under the Central Group of Companies, has announced plans to continue its investments this year, with its latest shopping complex to be developed at a cost of Bt6bn. The low-rise CentralFestival East Ville, the first lifestyle outdoor mall of the group, will begin construction on a 51-rai plot of Praditmanutham Road in the next two to three months and finish in November next year. (Bangkok Post, 30/04/14)

DEMCO

DEMCO plans further expansion into overseas markets, especially Laos and Myanmar to get in on the good growth potential in both countries. It expects to new jobs of Bt4.5-5.5bn and is pushing to finish more of its current Bt3.5bn backlog. DEMCO’s shareholders approved a dividend of Bt0.10/share. (Khao Hoon, 30/04/14)

Comment: The real value here is in its holding in WEH (Wind Energy Holding)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ck, cpn, demco, hemraj, match, pm, sena, thcom) 30.04.14

Stock splits = rejoice

So the global financial media has focused on Apple’s recent 7-1 stock split, and the impact that has/will have on the share price, now here in little Thailand we have the same phenomenon with the latest stock splits coming from MBK and BGH.

MBK

  • Announced 7 March 2014 that in the AGM the board wanted to approve a stock split –
  • Return + 6% (excl div) from announcement til today.

bgh stock split

BGH

  • Announced 14th March that the board would like to have a stock split approved @ the agm
  • Return : Also +6% (excl dividends) from announcement til today

mbkstocksplit

Now how do we know about this? If you’re thinking insider trading then please just slap yourself on the head…all one has to do is follow company announcements – its all public information.

Stocks in the news (ajd, centel, gold, jsp, lhbank, mono, noble, pttep, rojna, tsth) 29.04.14

AJD
AJD expects triple revenue growth in 2014 supported by AJ Smart Set Top Box sales. It has raised its sales target to 2mn boxes. It is ready to focus on the online business in the next three years and expects sharp revenue growth in 2017. (Khao Hoon, 29/04/14)
Comment: So who is really going to win this set top box market? samart? ajd? 

CENTEL
Centel’s highest dividend – Central Plaza Hotel Plc (CENTEL) will pay a dividend to shareholders at 40 satang per share, the highest in the firm’s history, thanks to its strong gains in the hotel and food business in 2013. The closing date for the shares is May 7. Payment will be done by May 22. (Bangkok Post, 29/04/14)
Comment: Sure because they realised earnings from a sale of assets/subsidiary last name, not necessarily from their operating performance

GOLD
Golden Land selling Bt2.4bn assets – Golden Land Property Development, one of the firms owned by the family of beverage tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, plans to sell Bt2.4bn worth of assets, including its upcountry land bank, to reduce its debt and to raise cash to develop residential projects in Greater Bangkok over the next few years. (The Nation, 29/04/14)
Comment: A turnaround/asset play here, but value seems to be realised already

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ajd, centel, gold, jsp, lhbank, mono, noble, pttep, rojna, tsth) 29.04.14

Stocks in the news (ck, erw, jas, ktc, mjd, seafco, spcg, super, true) 28.04.14

CK

Gets Contract 1 of Green Line — The MRTA board has selected CK to take Contract 1 of the Green Line Bearing-Samut Prakarn worth Bt137mn. (Khao Hoon, 28/04/14)

ERW

ERW: 1Q14 revenue to fall 25% YoY, pulled down by the political turmoil. However, there are better signs moving into 2Q14. It expects revenues this year to grow by 2-4% YoY and aims to open 12 new hotels to help push revenue growth in the future. (Khao Hoon, 28/04/14)

Comment: Every hotelier with Bangkok operations is going to have a poor 1Q, this is already known, still ERW looks more like an Asset play + recovery play

JAS

JAS expects to book profit of Bt30bn from its sale of assets in its new Bt70bn infrastructure fund in June. It aims to increase its customer base to 1.7mn by the end of this year and become the #1 player in the broadband business. (Khao Hoon, 28/04/14)

Comment: Sure, if it can get it up and running Continue reading Stocks in the news (ck, erw, jas, ktc, mjd, seafco, spcg, super, true) 28.04.14

Now that’s how you do an IPO!

So Ichitan Plc (ticker: ICHI) ipo’ed earlier in the week with a subscription price of THB 13.00, the stock hitting +30% during intra-day trading and finishing the week @ THB 17.90/share..

ICHIImage source: SETSMART

So how can you do a successful IPO? Easy do the following steps:

1. Create a successful consumer business and sell it to one of the wealthiest businessmen in Thailand at an incredibly high valuation

2. After a few years, take the exact successful formula, duplicate it, and spend a couple of years doing amazing PR with a sailor hat

3. During the IPO subscription period do a crazy amount of promotions and PR for retail investors (gold bars, porsche give aways etc etc) to gain access to the stock

4. Price the IPO at a fair valuation (ICHI IPO’ed @ mid-teens PE which isn’t overtly expensive, with a value of THB 3.9 bn)

5. Sit back and soak in the praises as the IPO performs fantastically well and fools like me sitting here singing your praises.

ichiWell done Tan Man