The 10 most important things this week

  1. Survey: Capacity at 55% in H1 – The weak global economy has led to declining orders from overseas importers, forcing Thai industries to cut their production capacity and overtime payments to employees, reports the Employers’ Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry (EconThai).
  2. EconThai’s survey showed overtime payments in the first half of this year dropped by 21.1% because of lower production capacity, which fell to 55%. Production capacity for small and medium-sized enterprises fell to 48% in the first half. (Bangkok Post, 10/8/15)
  3. Budget disbursement reach 80% – As of July 31, Bt2.06trn or 80.1% of the total Bt2.57trn budget has been disbursed, higher than 75.6% in the same period last year. (Daily News, 8/8/15)
  4. China’s CPI continues to rise in July – China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose to 1.6 percent in July, the highest level seen in 2015. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.3 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Sunday. (Xinhua, 9/8/15)
  5. China: H1 current account surplus tops 152 bln dollars – China’s current account surplus in the first half of 2015 hit 152.2 billion U.S. dollars, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced on Friday. The surplus reached 76.6 billion U.S. dollars in the second quarter of the year, with goods trade surplus and service trade deficit at 137.6 billion U.S.dollars and 50.4 billion U.S.dollars respectively. (Xinhua, 7/8/15)
  6. WSJ Survey: Economists Expect Fed Rate Liftoff in September – An overwhelming majority of private forecasters polled think the Federal Reserve will begin raising short-term interest rates next month, capping a historic era of unprecedented monetary stimulus. About 82% of economists surveyed Friday through Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal said the Fed’s first rate increase will come in September, versus 13% who said the central bank will wait until December. (WSJ, 13/8/15)
  7. ECB Saw China and Possible U.S. Rate Hike Fallout as Risks in July – European Central Bank officials flagged uncertainties surrounding China’s economy and potential ripple effects from interest-rate increases in the U.S. as risks to the European economy when they met in mid-July, the minutes of that meeting showed—suggesting that ECB members were already attuned to global risks weeks before China’s currency devaluation rocked global markets. (WSJ, 13/8/15)
  8. Japan industrial output in June revised up to 1.1% increase – Japan’s industrial output in une rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent from the previous month, revised upward from a preliminary 0.8 percent increase, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Wednesday. (Kyodo News, 12/8/15)
  9. Germany open to debt relief for Greece, but no haircut – Germany’s deputy Finance Minister Jens Spahn told German radio on Thursday that Germany was ready to talk about debt relief for Greece, such as extending the maturity of loans or easing the terms, but a haircut was out of the question. (Reuters, 13/8/15)
  10. U.S. inflation temporarily ‘very low,’ says Fed’s Fischer – U.S. inflation is only temporarily “very low” due in part to commodity prices, while the U.S. economy has nearly achieved full employment, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Monday. “A large part of the current inflation is temporary. It has to do with the decline in the price of oil; it has to do with the decline in the price of raw materials,” he said on Bloomberg TV. “These are things which will stabilize at some point,” Fischer added, in comments that were careful not to tip his hand on when he thinks U.S. interest rates should rise. (Reuters, 10/8/15)

Evil Chinese!

The evil chinese are devaluing their currency to ruin the world! Right…that’s the headline I’ve been reading the past few days, and this is the only chart that I care about at the moment.cotd-usd-cny

And these quotes from El Erian

China is now following a path that many other advanced and emerging economies have been attempting to take for some time (including the euro zone via the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program). Indeed, China’s decision leaves the U.S.  as the only systemically important country willing to accept the strengthening of its currency. But what may work for individual countries cannot work for the system as a whole; and that has implications for financial markets.

China’s currency move will be viewed as an important step in the country’s multiyear journey toward a more efficient and responsive market-determined system

Granted the conspiracy theorist inside me asks these questions:

  • Isn’t it convenient that this occurs the month before the head of China goes to the US and the month where the Fed is supposedly going to finally raise interest rates?
  • Why all the rhetoric against China? The USD during ’08-’13 was weakening massively and yet nothing in the media was said
  • Japan has devalued its own currency vs the RMB and the USD by some 30% in the past 12 months, perhaps that’s where it all started?
  • Isn’t this all just a race to the beginning? Every country tries to devalue their currency, exports deflation and in the end currencies return to where they started?

Source: Business Insider, Bloomberg

Stocks in the news (anan, atp30, bkd, chg, ecl, forth, fpi, gpsc, intuch, mill, nwr, planb, pttep, ratch, rs, samco, sappe, spcg, super, tasco, thai, tgpro, tk, tpch, tuf, uv) 14.08.15

ANAN launches 4 new projects worth of Bt11bn. It has set a presales target of 40% per project within Aug 12-16. It is cooperating with Thai Samsung Electronics. (Khao Hoon, 14/8/15)]
Comment: And they’re spending quite the small fortune on marketing these projects, you can see their advertisements everywhere in Bangkok

ATP30 IPO price at Bt0.95/share with 24.59% discount. It plans to invest in a bus. First trading day is Aug 27, 2015. It expects revenue growth of 15-20% in 2015. (Khao Hoon, 14/8/15)
Comment: Looks like another small IPO, watch for the first day bounce

BKD reported profit growth of 20% to reach Bt63mn in 2Q15. It targets jobs of Bt3.5bn supported by a new client. (Khao Hoon, 14/8/15)

CHG targets revenue growth of 15-20% from Bt2.71bn last year due to high season in 2H15 and expanding demand. It has budgeted Bt550mn to expand its hospital. (Thun Hoon, 14/8/15)
Comment: We still wonder aloud if this hospital group will ever be taken over.

Continue reading Stocks in the news (anan, atp30, bkd, chg, ecl, forth, fpi, gpsc, intuch, mill, nwr, planb, pttep, ratch, rs, samco, sappe, spcg, super, tasco, thai, tgpro, tk, tpch, tuf, uv) 14.08.15

FDI Rankings in ASEAN

The image below does explain a lot in terms where FDI is going within the region, for the 2nd largest economy in ASEAN, Thailand hasn’t been able to attract the #’s that one would expect, I wouldn’t be surprised in 5 years to see Vietnam attracting far more capital than Thailand. aseanfdi


Source: Bangkok Post

Stocks in the news (aot, arrow, bbl, big, cbg, cpall, ea, gold, ilink, jsp, kcm, kiat, psl, sawad, syntec, tcap, thai, thcom, tog, tmt, true, tse, ttw, wha) 13.08.15

AOT says there is no impact from the Chinese yuan depreciation. Growth in Chinese tourist was 10-14% for eight months. (Post Today, 13/08/15)
Comment: For once, I concur with this government enterprise.

ARROW reported 2Q15 earnings of Bt56mn (+92%YoY). It plans to pay an interim dividend of Bt0.15/share, XD on Aug 21. It targets 2015 revenue growth of 20%. (Khao Hoon, 13/08/15)
Comment: And somehow this little company continues to rack up decent earnings growth inspite of the overall economic situation.

BBL sees Chinese corporations becoming some of its major Vietnam customers after seeing greater direct investment activities by them. It targets 2015 Vietnam loan growth of 14% after it achieving 7-8% in 1H15. (Thun Hoon, 13/08/15)
Comment: Perhaps more of a regional play at the moment, without a doubt the Chinese are the largest investors in Vietnam

BIG reported 2Q15 earnings of Bt70.8mn. It expects revenue and net profit to grow steadily. It plans to launch a marketing campaign to boost sales. It is confident 2015 revenue will achieve its target growth of 10%. (Khao Hoon, 13/08/15)
Comment: Well its a camera retail co, just depends upon how large you believe the market is for them

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, arrow, bbl, big, cbg, cpall, ea, gold, ilink, jsp, kcm, kiat, psl, sawad, syntec, tcap, thai, thcom, tog, tmt, true, tse, ttw, wha) 13.08.15