Random thoughts – Bombs, markets, a fund?

It’s been a rather hectic week(s)/month(s), hence the slow blog posts and far less rambling articles.

Firstly, the Bangkok bombing, I didn’t want to immediately put a long post spewing obscenities towards the fact that a military government can’t even protect one of the most visited locations in Thailand, and that Thailand’s tourism will still eventually recover because people have short term memories and quickly forget, its a sad but true fact. Returning to Thailand from Singapore I saw empty highways on the way home, the next day, police and army persons everywhere, bags being checked at every entrance and far less traffic in the evenings, the city just feels worried. Now the key issue that I’ve had with the aftermath of this is that normally whenever such an event happens in Thailand, you would normally hear similar theories being floated around, however this is one of the first times where I haven’t heard 1 clear consensus theory over who may have been behind the attack, and that I find to be rather concerning. Perhaps the best possible explanation that I’ve heard is in regards to a power struggle that I can’t write about.
Secondly, currencies, perhaps all financial markets should be thrown into this paragraph of questions. We’ve seen 1) Commodities take a huge hit – but is oil at 40 a bad thing? Will this derail the world’s expansion into renewables? 2) Currencies in Asia/Emerging Markets all wobbling vs the USD 3) Junk bond spreads in the US are starting to widen, some are doubling 4) Equities haven’t really felt the brunt of anything just yet. So what? Malaysia, Indonesia currencies are back to the ’97 crisis levels, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines are slowly reaching those similar levels too, what does this all mean? Currency movements aren’t a short term game from what I’ve looked at historically, is the USD on its bull market trend for the coming years, and then again so what? Could Gold become an attractive destination yet again?
Finally, a fund? Launching a proper offshore fund, takes quite a few moving pieces to work in tandem, you face delays, increased costs, legal snafus, clients that change their mind but in the end with  1) A good partner that is incredibly detailed  – check; 2) A handful of clients or mountain of clients that will support you – check; 3) Financial markets that are volatile so that opportunities present itself – check; 4) The best service providers possible – check; 5) A lot of praying that everything works out on day 1 of investing – still praying. 6) Have a strong team – check and double check in the near future. But things can still go wrong, get delayed as we have experienced, but all perhaps for positive reasons. It’s going to be an interesting time starting out next month.
So I’m traveling again next week – this time to the Philippines to visit co’s, posts will be random yet again – apologies in advance.

Thai Cabinet Reshuffle

The latest cabinet reshuffle has quite a few interesting changes, some expected, some a pleasant surprise, others meh.

Firstly the expected – Somkid in charge as a deputy PM – a positive given he “should” know something about how to boost an economy given his performance under Thaksin’s first term

Pleasant Surprise(s)

– Apisak Tantivorawong – now the former chairman of KTB, advisor to SCB, Chairman of the ASEAN Bankers Association, Chairman of the Thai Bankers association, served on the board of IVL, CP Group, SYNEX, TOP, QH; someone that “should” know how to be a finance minister
– Dr. Uttama – Has been an advisor to Somkid during Thaksin’s first term, an Independent Director at BIGC, perhaps not the most ICT qualified person but should still have the wits on how to go ahead with this digital economy


-Why are there so many Deputy PM’s?

-Everyone else

Random thoughts – Interesting how 3 people that were (are?) part of Thaksin’s economic team are now in positions of power. Let the conspiracy discussions begin.

cabinetSource: Bangkok Post

Stocks in the news (amata, brr, ccp, dcon, dtac, epg, gunkul, iec, major, pf, ptt, pttgc, sithai, super, tkt, tsth, tvo, wha) 21.08.15

AMATA expects to sell 200 rai of land in 3Q15. It plans to sell assets in Vietnam to AMATAR. It plans to hold a roadshow for AMATA VN around Oct-Nov, with listing on the SET in 4Q15. It is budgeting Bt2bn to invest in industrial estate Amata Vietnam. (Khao Hoon, 21/08/15)
Comment: I personally think AMATA has been one disappointing investment in the past 2 years, despite land sales doing ok, the REIT and the listing of AMATAVN, the stock price hasn’t performed, thank the stars for HEMRAJ/WHA
BRR expects double-digit net profit growth this year on the back of sales and revenue from the power business. (Khao Hoon, 21/08/15)
CCP is talking with prospective partner to expand to Myanmar and Laos. It expects this expansion to contribute revenue in 4Q15. It expects to get 60-70% of jobs valued at Bt700-800mn, which will raise its backlog from Bt2.3bn. It has budgeted Bt200mn to increase capacity to handle the high number of orders. (Thun Hoon, 21/08/15)
Comment: Given that they are a small company, any infrastructure works should have a rather positive impact on earnings
DCON has budgeted Bt400mn to buy land for a condo project. It plans to launch a Bt1.5bn project at Sai Mai in 2016. It expects to benefit from government investment. It expects to complete a deal for a biomass power plant in 4Q15. (Thun Hoon, 21/08/15)
Comment: The story is now well brokered for DCON 

Continue reading Stocks in the news (amata, brr, ccp, dcon, dtac, epg, gunkul, iec, major, pf, ptt, pttgc, sithai, super, tkt, tsth, tvo, wha) 21.08.15