Hikes are postponed

Here.

Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC’s ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate back to near zero.9

Source: Federal Reserve

So what?

Well the dollar bulls are going to have to wait a bit, emerging market equities and bonds will rally, yes we still don’t quite know how this economic experiment will end but in the meantime we’ll take every opportunity to profit that we can.

Thai Constitution Timeline

To be honest – I don’t quite care about what will be in this new constitution (re investment decisions) and I doubt the public cares much either, in the end the key thing that I care about is the timeline. If the government can maintain this timeline then I’m still going to be positive about this country or specifically the market for the next 12 months, if not well let’s see!

draftcharter

Source: Bangkok Post

Stocks in the news (akr, global, gpsc, ifec, jubile, lhbank, perm, pb, ps, rs, tacc, tmc, tpch, tu, upa) 30.03.16

AKR
AKR expects 2016 revenue to grow not less than 50% aided by public projects. It plans to cooperate with agricultural cooperatives to take part in government unit solar farm in April. It expects to get electricity transformer orders in May. It expects to take part in Bt6bn bids. Investors in Singapore and China are interesting to invest in solar farm if government allows doing. (Thun Hoon, 30/03/16)

GLOBAL
GLOBAL expects 1H16 earnings to be good on high season. It expects 2016 revenue to grow 10-15% from 2014’s Bt17.4bn. It is budgeting Bt2bn to open 8 stores. (Thun Hoon, 30/03/16)
Comment: And the stock price had a positive move after management stepped down after being caught for insider trading

GPSC
GPSC expects 1Q16 earnings to be good on the back of IRPC Clean Power. It plans to start up the 123MW Nava Nakorn power plant in 2Q16. It targets 1,400MW capacity at the end of 2016. (Khao Hoon, 30/03/16)

IFEC
IFEC expects to get a 100MW Japanese solar farm in 2Q16 after signing a letter of intent with a Japanese partner. It expects Dhara Dhevi to exit rehabilitation plan in 2Q16. (Thun Hoon, 30/03/16)
Comment: I’ve seen them announce a million LOI’s…

Continue reading Stocks in the news (akr, global, gpsc, ifec, jubile, lhbank, perm, pb, ps, rs, tacc, tmc, tpch, tu, upa) 30.03.16

Infrastructure progress

Maybank Kim Eng Thailand has these great updates on a weekly basis regarding the Infrastructure Investment, see below for a succinct summary.

Who benefits from this? Well the usual players, CK, STEC, UNIQ, ITD, maybe the smaller ones too hopefully, i.e. NWR, CNT, PYLON, etc…
Investment: Infra investments update
The Cabinet approved construction of a Yellow Line and a Pink Line. The government will now look at the bidding process to ensure it takes place within the next three months. The rail links are needed to reduce traffic congestion in Bangkok, which currently has three skytrain lines and one underground line.

Mass-transit routes in Greater Bangkok: Yellow Line (Lat Phrao-Samrong (a straddle-type monorail line)) (THB52b) (2016-2019 or earlier)
Funding: Some included in FY16 budget. The government will invest no more than THB20b, covering the land expropriation costs and many of the civil works. The private sector will invest in the remaining civil engineering projects, trains, operating systems, and maintenance services, under a 30-year concession.

Current status: Fast-tracking PPP project; feasibility study finished; EIA finished; approved by the PPP committee 29 Feb 2016; approved by the Cabinet 29 Mar 2016; international bidding and private participation selection by May 2016; construction to start in Jun 2016.

PPPs: Yes; construction and operation. The government will invest no more than THB20b, covering the land expropriation costs (THB6.01b) and many of the civil works; the private sector will invest in the remaining civil engineering projects, trains, operating systems, and maintenance services, under a 30-year concession; the private sector must take all risks – under the PPP Net Cost model – if the number of passengers is not as expected.

Distance: 30.4km. The daily ridership for is estimated at 247,900 person.

Continue reading Infrastructure progress

Stocks in the news (advanc, ajd, arrow, brr, iec, lst, maco, npp, nwr, pf, pps, ptt, ups) 29.03.16

ADVANC
ADVANC has budgeted Bt2bn to upgrade 4G client services. It targets expanding to 121 branches by the end of 2016. (Kao Hoon, 29/03/16)

AJD
AJD work with Alibaba to service Alibaba members in Thailand. It sets member target at 5,000 members or revenue of Bt250mn in 2016. (Thun Hoon, 29/03/16)

ARROW
ARROW expects 2016 profit to be a new high. It is confident that revenue will reach Bt1.4bn. It expects 1Q16 earnings to be good supported by more sales, its backlog of Bt250mn and bids for government jobs. (Kao Hoon, 29/03/16)
Comment: And they continue and continue to grow and grow, at what point do they need to increase capacity to maintain this path?

BRR
BRR expects revenue and profit in 2016 to grow, driven by rising in sugar price. It expects to get 2.2mn tons of sugar cane and book full-year revenue from its biomass power plant. It expects to increase power plant revenue to 20%. (Kao Hoon, 29/03/16)
Comment: Sugar prices have rebounded from 10 to ~14 now so would 1Q-2Q should begin to look decent for all the sugar names in Thailand compared to last year.

Continue reading Stocks in the news (advanc, ajd, arrow, brr, iec, lst, maco, npp, nwr, pf, pps, ptt, ups) 29.03.16

Thai exports bounced up?

In a nutshell Feb #’s looked like they were saved by the sweetness of sugar which somehow jumped some 78% YoY in value terms, this despite Brazil still dominating the world w/ their weak currency.

Something positive to note is that exports to ASEAN and Japan (combined ~50% of exports) picked up for the first time in …. 6 months or so? We’ll see in the coming months if this is a sustained trend or just a blip.

exportsimports

Stocks in the news (advanc, arrow, beauty, cwt, dcorp, k, iec, pf, pm, ptl, samco, sgp, tcap, tsr) 28.03.16

ADVANC
Partnership may decide if AIS joins 4G auction — The uncertain status of a partnership agreement between TOT Plc and Advanced Info Service (AIS) may put the latter under increasing pressure to join the renewed auction for the 900-megahertz spectrum. (Bangkok Post, 28/3/16)

ARROW
ARROW expects 1Q16 earnings to be good on the back of recovering in construction and its active strategy. It expects 2Q16 earnings to be better than last year after its backlog reach a record high. (Thun Hoon, 28/03/16)
Comment: And they continue to grow and grow and grow

BEAUTY
BEAUTY expects 2016 earnings to mark a record high. It targets revenue of Bt2.1bn (20% growth). It plans to expand its business by supplying its products via 7-eleven and opening new branches at home and abroad. It plans to hold a roadshow at Japan in mid-2016. (Khao Hoon, 28/03/16)
Comment: With growth slowing (but still great nonetheless) will investors decide this company isn’t worth its 30x PE anymore?

CWT
CWT expects 2016 revenue to achieve Bt2bn (20% growth) aided by Bt1.5bn backlog, revenue from teak exports of Bt400mn and automotive leather orders from abroad. It is budgeting Bt800mn to invest in power plants. (ASTV, 28/03/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (advanc, arrow, beauty, cwt, dcorp, k, iec, pf, pm, ptl, samco, sgp, tcap, tsr) 28.03.16