Hikes are postponed

Here.

Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC’s ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate back to near zero.9

Source: Federal Reserve

So what?

Well the dollar bulls are going to have to wait a bit, emerging market equities and bonds will rally, yes we still don’t quite know how this economic experiment will end but in the meantime we’ll take every opportunity to profit that we can.

Thai Constitution Timeline

To be honest – I don’t quite care about what will be in this new constitution (re investment decisions) and I doubt the public cares much either, in the end the key thing that I care about is the timeline. If the government can maintain this timeline then I’m still going to be positive about this country or specifically the market for the next 12 months, if not well let’s see!

draftcharter

Source: Bangkok Post

Stocks in the news (akr, global, gpsc, ifec, jubile, lhbank, perm, pb, ps, rs, tacc, tmc, tpch, tu, upa) 30.03.16

AKR
AKR expects 2016 revenue to grow not less than 50% aided by public projects. It plans to cooperate with agricultural cooperatives to take part in government unit solar farm in April. It expects to get electricity transformer orders in May. It expects to take part in Bt6bn bids. Investors in Singapore and China are interesting to invest in solar farm if government allows doing. (Thun Hoon, 30/03/16)

GLOBAL
GLOBAL expects 1H16 earnings to be good on high season. It expects 2016 revenue to grow 10-15% from 2014’s Bt17.4bn. It is budgeting Bt2bn to open 8 stores. (Thun Hoon, 30/03/16)
Comment: And the stock price had a positive move after management stepped down after being caught for insider trading

GPSC
GPSC expects 1Q16 earnings to be good on the back of IRPC Clean Power. It plans to start up the 123MW Nava Nakorn power plant in 2Q16. It targets 1,400MW capacity at the end of 2016. (Khao Hoon, 30/03/16)

IFEC
IFEC expects to get a 100MW Japanese solar farm in 2Q16 after signing a letter of intent with a Japanese partner. It expects Dhara Dhevi to exit rehabilitation plan in 2Q16. (Thun Hoon, 30/03/16)
Comment: I’ve seen them announce a million LOI’s…

Continue reading Stocks in the news (akr, global, gpsc, ifec, jubile, lhbank, perm, pb, ps, rs, tacc, tmc, tpch, tu, upa) 30.03.16

Infrastructure progress

Maybank Kim Eng Thailand has these great updates on a weekly basis regarding the Infrastructure Investment, see below for a succinct summary.

Who benefits from this? Well the usual players, CK, STEC, UNIQ, ITD, maybe the smaller ones too hopefully, i.e. NWR, CNT, PYLON, etc…
Investment: Infra investments update
The Cabinet approved construction of a Yellow Line and a Pink Line. The government will now look at the bidding process to ensure it takes place within the next three months. The rail links are needed to reduce traffic congestion in Bangkok, which currently has three skytrain lines and one underground line.

Mass-transit routes in Greater Bangkok: Yellow Line (Lat Phrao-Samrong (a straddle-type monorail line)) (THB52b) (2016-2019 or earlier)
Funding: Some included in FY16 budget. The government will invest no more than THB20b, covering the land expropriation costs and many of the civil works. The private sector will invest in the remaining civil engineering projects, trains, operating systems, and maintenance services, under a 30-year concession.

Current status: Fast-tracking PPP project; feasibility study finished; EIA finished; approved by the PPP committee 29 Feb 2016; approved by the Cabinet 29 Mar 2016; international bidding and private participation selection by May 2016; construction to start in Jun 2016.

PPPs: Yes; construction and operation. The government will invest no more than THB20b, covering the land expropriation costs (THB6.01b) and many of the civil works; the private sector will invest in the remaining civil engineering projects, trains, operating systems, and maintenance services, under a 30-year concession; the private sector must take all risks – under the PPP Net Cost model – if the number of passengers is not as expected.

Distance: 30.4km. The daily ridership for is estimated at 247,900 person.

Continue reading Infrastructure progress