Random Thoughts: Analysts being kicked out, Howard Marks Memo, Vietnam

Silly CFOs

If you wonder why you don’t read too many negative analyst reports in the market this is typically a reason why

Chris Lee can be seen standing over a seated Timothy Lam and ordering him to leave the conference room on Wednesday. Lam initiated coverage on PAX Global’s stock in April with an underweight rating, making him the only analyst out of 17 tracked by Bloomberg to have a bearish recommendation at the time.

Asell-side analyst’s relationship with the management is so important, they can receive further insight into the business, easily arrange meetings for their clients and some of the time you’ll even see those sell-side analysts join the firm’s that they wrote reports on. It’s not the individual’s fault its just the way the business is. I’ve heard from a friend that he also received negative treatment from the CFO of an airline company here for writing a negative report on them, you can probably guess which one that is….
Source: Bloomberg
Howard Marks: Political realities.
There’s a lot in Howard Marks latest memo and I can’t do it justice with a summary, so here’s his last paragraph and a link to the whole article

I wrote this memo to explain what happened in the UK this year and what I think is happening in the U.S.  I wanted to point out that politics rarely hews to economic reality; rather, it has a reality all its own.  

The recent trends in income, wealth, trade and employment are causing a lot of dissatisfaction in the U.S. and Europe, and I expect them to have a strong impact on politics for years to come.  Widespread economic dislocation can cause voters to choose the wrong leaders.   The U.S. is not exempt, and we must be highly vigilant in this regard. 
I’m off to Vietnam for the next few days so there won’t be any posts til Thursday

WHTW: Top 10

  • Visa-on-arrival fee to double from Sept 27 – THE fee for visa on arrival, enjoyed by citizens of 18 countries and Taiwan, will double from Bt1,000 to Bt2,000 with effect from September 27.         The Foreign Ministry said in its announcement that the decision to hike the charge for this class of visa was based on what Thai embassies and consulates-general are collecting, to make the fee more comparable. (The Nation, 19/8/16)
  • Fuel tariff kept stable to subsidise future power bills — Power bills will remain unchanged for the rest of the year despite lower global fuel prices as energy policymakers plan to use its reserve cash to subsidise future power bills, says the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC). (Bangkok Post, 18/8/16)
  • Thai GDP expands 3.5% in Q2 — The Thai economy in the second quarter expanded by 3.5 per cent, convincing the national think tank that the full-year economic growth would reach 3-3.5 per cent. The figures released by the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) showed that that the second-quarter economy expanded by 0.8 per cent from the first quarter, boosting the first-half growth rate to 3.4 per cent. ( The Nation, 16/8/16
  • Bank of Thailand is concerned by stronger baht, said fund flows to bonds and stock markets might hamper the economic and business recovery. The bank recommended businessmen to work to manage the risk. (Kom Chad Luek, 17/8/16)
  • Fed’s William Dudley: Rate hike could come next month — New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said Tuesday a September rate hike “is possible.” “I don’t think my views have changed very much,” Dudley told Fox Business Network. “I think we’re looking for growth in the second half of the year that’ll be stronger than the first half — so some acceleration in the growth outlook.” (CNBC, 17/8/16)
  • Japan April-June GDP flat on-quarter, missing forecasts for 0.2 pct growth — Japan’s economy failed to grow on a quarterly basis during the April-June period, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth coming in at zero and missing already subdued forecasts. On an annualized basis, GDP expanded 0.2 percent, slowing dramatically from the 1.9 percent spike in the first three months of the year. A Reuters poll of economists had predicted an annualized increase of 0.7 percent and a quarterly rise of 0.2 percent.
  • OPEC’s Former Head Says Conditions Right for Oil-Freeze Deal — OPEC is on course to strike an output-freeze deal with fellow oil producers in Algiers next month because its biggest members are already pumping flat-out, the group’s former president said. (Bloomberg, 18/8/16)
  • UK jobless total falls to 1.64 million — Total UK unemployment dropped between April and June in the run-up to the Brexit vote, official figures indicate. The UK’s jobless total fell by 52,000 to 1.64 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The number of people on the claimant count in July, the first month since the UK’s vote to leave the EU, was 763,600, down 8,600 from June. Wages excluding bonuses rose 2.3% in the three months to June, the ONS said. Including bonuses, earnings growth was 2.4%. (BBC, 18/8/16
  • Brexit vote creates ‘headwinds’: ECB minutes — The U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union (EU) has created “headwinds” for the region, minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB)’s latest policy-setting meeting said. “New headwinds had emerged from the outcome of the U.K. referendum and uncertainty had risen, relating also to other geopolitical developments and the financial market situation,” the minutes, published on Thursday, stated. The minutes showed ECB members felt, however, that it was too early to judge the impact on the 19 euro zone economies. “More time was needed to assess the incoming information over the coming months, although downside risks had clearly increased,” the minutes said. (CNBC, 19/8/16)
  •  US weekly jobless claims total 262,000 vs 265,000 estimate — The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, reinforcing views of labor market strength that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 for the week ended Aug. 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims slipping to 265,000 in the latest week . (CNBC, 18/8/16)