So our favourite funny man in the telecom industry has announced this morning that he wants to buy out all the shares in JAS at THB 7.25/share.

If you remember your corp fin 101, MBO’s are typically done for a strong cash generative business and with plenty of cash on the b/s. Now JAS doesn’t quite the criteria on these 2 points, their business is stagnant given they’ve sold off the CF’s to a fund already and they’ve gone on a sharebuyback spree in since the 4G debacle. So how does this make any sense?  We have our theories but writing them publicly would definitely be considered slander..

Anyways..here are the official announcements:

Source: SET website: Intention to make a TO; Additional Explanation

Stocks in the news (age, ccn, fsmart, pimo, pstc, ptt, rpc, seafco, smt, spali, sta, super, thai, tsr, tvo) 19.09.16

AGE maintain its revenue target growth of 10% supported by more than 2mn tons coal sales. It expects to finish a deal with a partner to do a coal warehouse in Vietnam by the end of 2016. (Kao Hoon, 19/09/16)
CCN expects to get a government job from the Industry 4.0 project. It expects 2H16 earnings to grow, supported by booking backlog of Bt100mn. It is confident that 2016 revenue will reach its 20% target growth backed by Bt150mn from its telecommunication business. It is negotiating with a partner to do alternative power business . (Thun Hoon, 19/09 /16)
Comment: Well not sure how much of an impact the government news will have on this little IT System integrator. I’d turn my eyes to the bigger players SAMTEL and AIT and possible even MFEC
FSMART expects 3Q16 profit record new high of Bt100mn or growth 40% YoY supported by Boon Term Top Up machine. (Kao Hoon, 19/09/16)
Comment: No surprises here, they just keep growing
PIMO expects 2016 profit to jump 92% to Bt46mn supported by more orders. It expects 2017 profit of Bt72mn due to new orders from US customer in 1Q17. It plans to invest in BLDC motor technology. (Kao Hoon, 19/09/16)
Comment: Another small player, THB 1 bn mkt cap, not particularly cheap nor scalable.
PSTC expects 2016 revenue growth and profit to double after booking backlog of Bt300-400mn. It expects revenue from its power plant to grow in 4Q16. It has completed a deal to do a biomass power plant and 50MW cogeneration power plant in ASEAN. (Kao Hoon, 19/09/16)
Comment: There’s a lot of news about biomass and waste to energy expected to be announced within the next few weeks.
PTT expects to bring service stations to 200 this year. It expects revenue of Bt520bn. It has a plan to expand to 500 service stations abroad within five years and sell more Amazon franchises in Japan. (Thun Hoon, 19/09/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (age, ccn, fsmart, pimo, pstc, ptt, rpc, seafco, smt, spali, sta, super, thai, tsr, tvo) 19.09.16

Market Update 12/09 – 16/09

Well its mid-way through my favourite month of the year and the SET is down some -4.5%, why? Well we know why but can’t type it in public, though from what I’ve been told everything has been pre-arranged internally. You take from that what you will. The Fed is supposedly meeting soon and that should add another round of volatility to the markets this month and a lot of local brokers are stating that because the FTSE rebalancing is done that we may see more weakness in the market. Fun times for sure.

00sum 01charts

Management Trades 12/09 – 16/09

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 167 mn

  • BTW – A switch between shareholders
  • EARTH – Oh he’s back to buying shares again. One of the strangest coal companies around..

Sell(s) THB 435 mn

  • ORI –  This was the block sale to Templeton
  • PT – Interesting that after he sold the block of shares the share price moved
  • RS – Does the owner not believe in his cosmetic products?
  • BTW – See above


WHTW: Top 10

  • Household debt up sharply: Reckless policy and slow growth at fault. Average household debt in the year to date has risen by 20.2%, the highest growth in nine years, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC). (Bangkok Post, 16/9/16)
  •  BoT watch on foreign bondholders. The Bank of Thailand will require bond custodians to provide information regarding non-resident holders who are end beneficiaries of bonds issued in Thailand.  End. (Bangkok Post, 16/9/16)
  • Resignation may delay village broadband scheme. THE INFORMATION and Communications Technology Ministry’s plan to provide free broadband Internet access in 30,000 villages nationwide is expected to be further delayed, after the resignation of Minister Uttama Savanayana on Monday. (The Nation, 14/9/16)
  • VAT due for year-long extension. An extension of the 7% value-added tax (VAT) rate for another year will go before the cabinet today, says the head of the Revenue Department.The 7% tax rate is set to expire on Sept 30, said director-general Prasong Poontaneat. VAT was first introduced in 1992 at a rate of 10%, but was immediately slashed to 7% at the request of businesses. The rate has been kept at 7% ever since. (Bangkok Post, 13/9/16)
  • Increasingly risky to delay US rate hike, Fed’s Rosengren says. The Federal Reserve, long hesitant to raise U.S. interest rates, increasingly faces risks if it waits too much longer so a gradual policy tightening is likely appropriate, a top Fed official said on Friday. In another sign that a U.S. rate hike is approaching, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said “risks to the forecast are becoming increasingly two-sided.” That means that while a slowdown overseas remains a concern, the U.S. economy has proven resilient and could even overheat if Fed policy remains unchanged for too much longer, he said. (CNBC, 9/9/16) Continue reading WHTW: Top 10

Stocks in the news (bay, bsm, ci, forth, lph, nyt, planb, sawad, sgp, siri, spa, tapac, thani, ticon, vibha) 16.09.16

BAY expects 2016 auto leases to reach Bt133bn. It has raised its loan target to Bt279bn after expanding its services to the eastern part of the country. (Thun Hoon, 16/09/16)
Comment: The moment that BAY increases the free float i wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock price increase based purely upon fund flow
BSM expects 2H16 earnings growth to be outstanding after 1H16 profit of Bt0.97mn. It expects to focus on high margin products and launch new products. It is confident that 2016 revenue will hit its target of Bt700mn, growth of 20%. It plans to sign a contract for work in Papua New Guinea worth Bt100mn in 4Q16. (Thun Hoon, 16/09/16)
CI expects 4Q16 to be outstanding due to booking revenue from the sale of assets and high season. It expects 2016 revenue to reach its target of Bt3bn, supported by booking revenue from more projects and launching a new project worth Bt2.91bn. This will increase its backlog from more than Bt2bn. (Thun Hoon, 16/09/16)
Comment: If you compare CI today versus where it was 5 years ago you’d be impressed by their ability to become a property company with relatively consistent earnigns
FORTH expects to bid for a government project worth Bt1bn and expects to get the job. It maintains its 2016 revenue target at Bt5.8bn, supported by more orders and its subsidiary. (Thun Hoon, 16/09/16)
LPH has switched to long-term lease of Decha Hospital from an outright purchase. The lease will extend 20 years and a decision is expected this month. It expects 3Q16 revenue growth of 10%, giving 2016 revenue growth of 10-15%. It plans to buy two hospitals. (Kao Hoon , 16/09/16)
NYT is negotiating with a foreign partner to do a port in Indonesia to support auto production and plans to add a warehouse on 80 rai to generate income. It plans to increase investment in the C0 port to 29% from 20%. It expects 2016 profit to record a new high, supported by increasing auto exports. (Thun Hoon, 16/09/16)
Comment: The monopoly expands

Continue reading Stocks in the news (bay, bsm, ci, forth, lph, nyt, planb, sawad, sgp, siri, spa, tapac, thani, ticon, vibha) 16.09.16

Stocks in the news (aot, bem, bjchi, brr, cbg, itd, itel, ksl, lit, ptg, qtc, tkn, uac) 15.09.16

Suvarnabhumi expects bids by October – The long-awaited expansion of Suvarnabhumi airport is slated to have an auction for contractors in October, with construction starting by February, says president Nitinai Sirismatthakarn of the state-controlled Airports of Thailand (AoT). (Bangkok Post, 15/09/16)
MRTA will negotiate with BEM for the Blue Line extension, Chaloem Ratchamongkhon Line and hub station next week. MRTA plans for concessions to expire in 2049. (Kao Hoon, 15/09/16)
BJCHI plans to bid for a new job worth Bt20bn and expects to get this job. This will increase its backlog from Bt3.1bn. It expects 2016 revenue to achieve its target growth of 15% from Bt5.7bn in 2015, supported by more new orders. (Thun Hoon, 15/09/16)
BRR expects 2016 revenue and profit to be stable from last year backed by a recovery in sugar price in 2H16. It has now switched to FiT for its power business and this will boost revenue by 20% and lift the proportion of revenue from power to 10%. It plans to set up a fund worth Bt3.6bn next year. (Kao Hoon, 15/09/16)
Comment: Could sugar names be the biggest turnaround story next year? Like the O&G and Food names this year. 
CBG expects 2H16 earnings to be good after reporting 1H16 revenue of Bt4.48bn supported by demand from home and abroad. It expects 2016 sales to grow 20% from last year due to more customers. It has budgeted Bt2.61bn to increase can and bottle production capacity. (Thun Hoon, 15/09/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, bem, bjchi, brr, cbg, itd, itel, ksl, lit, ptg, qtc, tkn, uac) 15.09.16

Stocks in the news (aq, bcpg, dimet, drt, ilink, itel, loxley, ori, prin, pttgc, smpc, sr, tacc, tpch, tpipl, ureka) 14.09.16

AQ sold 100% of AQ ALIX which generated revenue of Bt670mn. It plans to launch a new housing project at the end of 2016. (Kao Hoon, 14/09/16)
BCPG set its IPO price at Bt10, the top in the price range, in response to good institutional investor interest. It expects to trade in September. (Thun Hoon, 14/09/16)
Comment: I am curious to see how this shall perform on the first day.
DIMET plans to wipe out retained losses of Bt17mn and expects pay a dividend of no less than 40% of net profit. It plans to cooperate with a construction company to expand its customer base. It has big orders from China and the Philippines that will increase revenue to Bt800mn. It plans to do a 20MW solar farm. (Thun Hoon, 14/09/16)
Comment: People love a good turnaround, newly dividend paying stock. 
DRT has cut its target 2016 revenue to Bt4.17bn in response to the slowdown in the construction materials industry. However, it is confident that net profit will be better than last year’s Bt330mn due to better cost management. It has budgeted Bt500-600mn to increase capacity. (Kao Hoon, 14/09/16)
ILINK got a job from PEA worth Bt309mn. It expects to get a job to lay fiber-optic lines for a substation worth Bt620mn and a job from the MEA to move electric wiring underground and well as laying underwater cable to Koh Samui. This will lift its backlog from Bt1.1bn. (Thun Hoon, 14/09/16)
Comment: Now the story is effectively done for ILINK for the next few quarters as the IPO of the subsidiary is done and even they themselves have said this is every project that they expected to win this year 

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aq, bcpg, dimet, drt, ilink, itel, loxley, ori, prin, pttgc, smpc, sr, tacc, tpch, tpipl, ureka) 14.09.16

Stocks in the news (aot, beauty, chewa, ivl, nch, nwr, pttgc, ratch, samart, sithai, smart, ticon, tks, tsf, auct) 13.09.16

AOT opening bidding for four contracts for Suvarnabhumi Phase ll. It expects to solicit bids for two contracts this year and will sell the bidding documents in October. It expects to raise its passenger capacity to 60mn passengers per year from 45mn passengers per year now. (Thun Hoon, 13/09/16)
Comment: Having just returned from JKT on the late night flight you can see both the arrival and departure halls bustling with passengers. I would be surprised to see capacity issues hitting AOT within the next 12 months 
BEAUTY expects 3Q16 earnings to be good, supported by more demand. It expects 2016 revenue to grow no less than 20% from Bt1.79bn in 2015. There is progress in talks regarding distributors in Hong Kong and Taiwan and it expects a decision in 4Q16. (Thun Hoon, 13/09/16)
CHEWA targets three-year revenue growth of 20% annually, supported by developing new projects and buying property projects that already have their EIA. It plans to launch its first lowrise project worth Bt500mn at the end of October. (Kao Hoon, 13/0 9/16)
Comment: Its an interesting smaller property developer. But as always with this business model, scalability is an issue
IVL has closed the deal for a JV with Dhunseri Petrochem Limited in India. This will lift PET capacity to 700K tons per year, making it India’s second-largest producer. (Thun Hoon, 13/09/16)
Comment: Another acquisition, he’s well on his way to catching up to Reliance, but is such a strategy necessarily good for minority equity shareholders?
NCH launches single-house project worth Bt680mn and has sold 24 units worth more than Bt78mn. (Kao Hoon, 13/09/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, beauty, chewa, ivl, nch, nwr, pttgc, ratch, samart, sithai, smart, ticon, tks, tsf, auct) 13.09.16

Stocks in the news (banpu, brr, cm, dcorp, gunkul, jmart, l&e, nwr, perm, pstc, scn, tnp, tog, tsr, ttcl) 12.09.16

BANPU expects 3Q16 net profit to be better than 2Q16’s Bt281mn thanks to higher coal price. It plans to invest in solar rooftop by negotiating with IEs, department stores and residences. (Thun Hoon, 12/09/16)
BRR’s board approved setting up an infrastructure fund for the power business of its two subsidiaries (Buriram Sugar and Buriram Power) with capacity of 19.8MW. It expects to use the funds to invest in new plants in Buriram and Surin. (Khao Hoon, 12/09/16)
Comment: Well that is an interesting development for a company firm. I’m not sure if 20 MW is enough for an infrastructure fund though…
CM expects to complete a deal to set up a subsidiary in Myanmar by the end of this year. It plans to invest Bt700mn in a processing plant. It plans to expand to abroad. It expects 2016 revenue to be good on the back of the baht depreciation. (Thun Hoon, 12/09/16)
DCORP expects to sign an MoU with a Chinese partner this week to invest in a mega project. It plans to invest in a 320MW solar farm in the Philippines. It expects net profit this year. It will also book revenue from a new service (energy saving management for private companies). It expects 2017 performance to be good on the back of the power business. (Thun Hoon, 12/09/16)
Comment: We’ve been reading a lot about these solar farm’s in the Philippines, last we checked the grid there is far worse than Thailand so we have our doubts on several of these projects going through.
GUNKUL plans to take over 40-70MW Japanese solar farms. It also plans to submit bidding documents for a 20MW solar farm in Malaysia. It expects this to increase its total capacity to 420MW at the end of 2015. It expects its capacity to reach 1000MW within 2021. It expects 2016 revenue to grow 30% as targeted. (Thun Hoon, 12/09/16)
JMART expects 4Q16 sales to surge brought by launching iPhone7. It expects 2016 revenue to grow 30% as targeted. It expects to change to a holding company within 2017 after it reaches Bt10bn in assets. (Thun Hoon, 12/09/16)
Comment: We are more curious about their other businesses which are the key drivers versus just the phone sales. Plus when you’re up against someone like Com7 that is sweet with True or SPVI that is sweet with AIS, how can JMART continue to compete?

Continue reading Stocks in the news (banpu, brr, cm, dcorp, gunkul, jmart, l&e, nwr, perm, pstc, scn, tnp, tog, tsr, ttcl) 12.09.16