Stocks in the news (auct, bafs, demco, dsgt, ecf, egco, ktb, nep, richy, seafco, simat, super, tsr, tta, vte) 05.09.16

AUCT expects to have good news soon. It expects 2H16 to be growth and expects 3Q16 to recovery due to car bidding is recovery; It had bid for a 30k car in 1H16. (Thun Hoon, 05/09/16)
BAFS expects 2016 revenue and profit to record a new high, as volume increases with the number of flights. It expects 2H16 to grow due to high season. (Kao Hoon, 05/09/16)
Comment: And with the continued expansion of the Airport this company is sitting pretty
DEMCO expects its business to pass bottom after the budget for repairing Huay Bong 2-3 has been settled. It expects 2H16 to be in the black. It is confident that 2016 revenue will reach its target of Bt6bn, growth of 10-15%, supported by more than Bt6.4bn in backlog waiting to be booked. (Kao Hoon, 05/09/16)
Comment: Should this issue pass, then the last issue will be with WEH potential IPO – if/when that will occur
DSGT expects 2016 revenue to be better than 2015’s revenue of Bt7.5bn, backed by customer expansion and expansion in Thailand and abroad. It plans to launch a big campaign to stimulate sales. (Thun Hoon, 05/09/16)
Comment: Just out at lunch time was the news that a PE firm has bid for THB 5.00/share for all of DSGT
ECF expects 2016 revenue growth 12-15% due to furniture business is recovery. It plans to negotiate with partner to invest in power plant in Thailand and abroad which expects to conclude in 3Q16. Recently, It signed MOU with AF to do a factoring loan to members and supplier. (Kao Hoon, 05/09/1 6)
EGCO expects 2016 operating profit to exceed Bt8bn, growth of over 5%, after reporting operating profit of Bt4.3bn in 1H16. It continues to expand electricity business in Thailand and abroad and expects capacity to reach 5,000MW by 2019. (Kao Hoon , 05/09/16)
KTB rejigs loan price formula. Krungthai Bank (KTB), the country’s largest state-owned bank by assets, has revised its pricing formula for government and state enterprise loans to be more competitive after significant falls over the past few years. (Bangkok Post, 05/09/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (auct, bafs, demco, dsgt, ecf, egco, ktb, nep, richy, seafco, simat, super, tsr, tta, vte) 05.09.16

Management Trades 29/08-02/09

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 147 mn

  • AJ – Looks like a block trade between the family members
  • POMPUI – Will this Non performing name be relisted?

Sell(s) THB 139 mn

  • AJ – See above
  • TFG – Perhaps the best performing name this year due to a turnaround but even this Chairman/director thinks its done


WHTW: Top 10

  • State firms plan investment spree to boost the economy — In the second half of this year, 55 state-owned enterprises will invest at least Bt100 billion, to add to the Bt130 billion in the first half, in order to boost economic growth by 0.3-0.4 of a percentage point. (Bangkok Post, 29/8/16)
  • Auto decline brings down July exports — Thai exports contracted for the fourth consecutive month in July, by 4.4% year-on-year, bringing down shipment growth in the first seven months of the year to minus 2%, according to Commerce Ministry. The major factors for the July decline were slumping shipments of refined oil (-40.7%) and automobiles (-27.5%), which brought down industrial exports by 0.4%. (B angkok Post, 26/8/16)
  • Q2 unemployment rate rises in the midst of declining exports – Despite recent signs of economic recovery, the jobless rate continued to rise in the second quarter, leading overall nonfarm sector employment to fall slightly from the first quarter. (Bangkok Post, 30/08/16)
  • BoI offers raft of incentives towards medical hub in Thailand – AS PART of the effort to turn Thailand into a medical hub, the Board of Investment yesterday approved a raft of promotions, including a five-year waiver of corporate income tax for pharmaceutical firms. (The Nation, 30/08/16)
  • Digital ad spending to hit Bt10 bn in 2017 – AD SPENDING on digital media will reach Bt10 billion next year, encroaching on territory held by mainstream media such as television and newspapers, the Digital Advertising Association (Thailand) projects. (The Nation, 30/08/16)
  • Yellen: Case for raising rates has strengthened ‘in recent months’ — In a much-anticipated speech Friday at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole summit, Fed Chair Janet Yellen voiced optimism about the economy and an expectation that interest rate hikes are ahead. Speaking as the market wonders when the Fed will resume a policy tightening that began in December, Yellen issued some cautionary tones, but pointed to more increases on the horizon. (CNBC, 26/8/16)

Continue reading WHTW: Top 10

Stocks in the news (amata, banpu, big, bkd, dcon, ekh, kiat, modern, ncl, pace, pf, pimo, rjh, sena, spcg, tcmc, tmill, vibha) 02.09.16

AMATA expects 2016 land sales to hit target of 1,000 rai. It has land of 1,000 rai to support investment. It is confident that total revenue will grow no less than 5% supported by its backlog of more than Bt1.3bn. (Thun Hoon, 02/09/16)
BANPU plans to COD 118MW this year, with full year capacity of more than 2000MW. Recently, it worked with twelve universities to install solar roofs. It expects 2016 revenue to reach target of Bt120bn backed by coal price recovery. (Thun Hoon, 02/09/16)
BIG expects 2H16 profit of more than Bt560mn, increasing 200% YoY, supported by introduction of a new mirrorless camera and a Big Pro Days event to raise sales. (Kao Hoon, 02/09/16)
Comment: Looking forward for next year, if they can’t expand their network then growth numbers may drop to single digits
BKD plans to book extra item of Bt400mn from sale of land in 2Q17 after the board approved the sale of 19 rai at Krungthepkritha for Bt487mn. If the company does not reinvest the money, it will use it to pay a dividend. (Kao Hoon, 02/09/16)
Comment: Well if they pay out the entire proceeds from the land sale then it would be more than a 10% special dividend
DCON expects 4Q16 to be peak supported by more orders and booking revenue from the sale of land. It is confident that 2016 revenue will be better than last year. It expects 2016 revenue of no less than Bt1.1bn. It plans to expand production lines and list a subsidiary in 2018. (Thun Hoon, 02/09/16)
EKH expects 2016 revenue and profit to be a new high. It expects revenue growth of 15% backed by more patients and expects 2H16 earnings to grow more than 1H16 due to high season. It expects 3Q16 earnings to be a new high. It plans to build a new pediatric center next year. (Kao Hoon, 02/09/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (amata, banpu, big, bkd, dcon, ekh, kiat, modern, ncl, pace, pf, pimo, rjh, sena, spcg, tcmc, tmill, vibha) 02.09.16

Bill Gross still hates negative interest rates

There isn’t any new information in his latest monthly commentary as he continues on the negative aspects of zero interest rates and negative rates. But at least he doesn’t talk about sex anymore…

I and others however, have for several years now, suggested that the primary problem lies with zero/negative interest rates; that not only do they fail to provide an “easing cushion” should recession come knocking at the door, but they destroy capitalism’s business models — those dependent on a yield curve spread or an interest rate that permits a legitimate return on saving, as opposed to an incentive for spending. They also keep zombie corporations alive and inhibit Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” which many argue is the hallmark of capitalism. Capitalism, almost commonsensically, cannot function well at the zero bound or with a minus sign as a yield. $11 trillion of negative yielding bonds are not assets — they are liabilities. Factor that, Ms. Yellen into your asset price objective. You and your contemporaries have flipped $11 trillion from the left side to the right side of the global balance sheet.

Source: Janus

Stocks in the news (beauty, bkd, chewa, cho, cpall, focus, glow, pstc, ptg, rjh, sgp, siri, tgpro, thai, tluxe, tm, yuasa) 01.09.16

BEAUTY expects 2016 revenue and profit to be a new high due to revenue growth of more than 45% in 2H16. It is negotiating with a partner to set up distributorship in Hong Kong and Taiwan; it expects the deal to be concluded in 4Q16. It expects revenue growth of no less than 20% for the next three years. (Kao Hoon, 01/09/16)
Comment: I have sat down with management and I suspect they just got lucky with the international business. Regardless its still growing and growing and growing
BKD will ask its board for approval to sell land for Bt500mn. It plans to take part in Bt1.5bn in bids. It expects 2016 revenue to grow not less than 20%. (Thun Hoon, 01/09/16)
CHEWA is confident that 2016 revenue will grow 20% from last year supported by backlog of more than Bt300mn waiting to be booked and transfers of more than Bt1.3bn. It plans to launch two projects in 2H16 valued at Bt1.94bn. (Kao Hoon, 01/09/16)
CHO expects 2016 revenue growth of more than 10% backed by backlog of Bt586mn, with Bt310mn of this booked as revenue this year. It has a new job worth Bt300mn and expects to sign the contract and book revenue this year. It has budgeted Bt800mn to expand by eight fullservice maintenance centers. (Kao Hoon, 01/09/16)
CPALL expects SSS growth to reach 3-5% brought by 7-Eleven stamp campaign and higher purchasing power from better farm income. It targets 12,000 branches within three years, with plans to open 420 stores this year. It expects a better margin from high margin products. (Thun Hoon, 01/09/16)
Comment: And just wait for the MAKRO turnaround + debt reduction 
FOCUS is talking to a prospective partner in France to take over a waste management business and expects to invest in the power business. It expects 2016 earnings to be good and for revenue to be higher than last year. It expects to take part in Bt800mn bids, of which it expects to get 50%. (Thun Hoon, 01/ 09/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (beauty, bkd, chewa, cho, cpall, focus, glow, pstc, ptg, rjh, sgp, siri, tgpro, thai, tluxe, tm, yuasa) 01.09.16

FTSE Index Changes

Several brokers sending this out this AM

FTSE Global Equity Index Series Asia Pacific ex Japan Regional Index and Japan Regional Index Semi-Annual Review.  
Constituent changes can  be accessed via the attachments below.  The changes will be effective after the close of business on Friday, 16 September 2016 (i.e. on Monday, 19 September 2016).

Large cap
Inclusion: SCC-R, KBANK-R
Exclusion: none

Mid cap
Inclusion: BEM

Exclusion: none

Small cap
Exclusion: BEM, THRE

FTSE All-World
Inclusion: SCC-R, KBANK-R
Exclusion: none

Exclusion: THRE