Category Archives: Market

Market commentary on Thai stocks and the SET Index.

WHTW: Top 10

  • Thailand Future Fund to be IPO-filed this year end. The financial advisors are selecting projects to be included in the funds. The 3 possible projects are Motorway #7, Motorway #9 and Rama III-Dao Kanong-Bangkok outer ring road. (Bangkok Biz, 16/9/16)
  • Fresh stimulus on the way. The government is poised to launch a fresh round of stimulus measures, targeting agriculture specifically, in an effort to ward off downside risks to economic growth as the recovery sputters along. (Bangkok Post, 22/9/16)
  • Sino-Thai railwork set for December. The draft contract for the Sino-Thai highspeed railway should be finalised in October, and the first phase of construction is expected to start in December, says Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith. (Bangkok Post, 22/9/16)
  • TOT signs six-month deal for AWN trial roaming on 2.1GHz. TOT and Advanced Wireless Network, a subsidiary of Advanced Info Service (AIS), signed a sixmonth contract on Tuesday that will see AWN trial-roaming on the state agency’s 2.1-gigahertz spectrum, said a TOT source. (The Nation, 22/9/16)
  • GH Bank asked to put low-income people in homes. DEPUTY Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak yesterday asked the Government Housing (GH) Bank to join the Treasury Department, the National Housing Authority and other agencies to find ways for low-income earners and the elderly to own homes. (The Nati on, 23/9/16)

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Market Update 12/09 – 16/09

Well its mid-way through my favourite month of the year and the SET is down some -4.5%, why? Well we know why but can’t type it in public, though from what I’ve been told everything has been pre-arranged internally. You take from that what you will. The Fed is supposedly meeting soon and that should add another round of volatility to the markets this month and a lot of local brokers are stating that because the FTSE rebalancing is done that we may see more weakness in the market. Fun times for sure.

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WHTW: Top 10

  • Household debt up sharply: Reckless policy and slow growth at fault. Average household debt in the year to date has risen by 20.2%, the highest growth in nine years, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC). (Bangkok Post, 16/9/16)
  •  BoT watch on foreign bondholders. The Bank of Thailand will require bond custodians to provide information regarding non-resident holders who are end beneficiaries of bonds issued in Thailand.  End. (Bangkok Post, 16/9/16)
  • Resignation may delay village broadband scheme. THE INFORMATION and Communications Technology Ministry’s plan to provide free broadband Internet access in 30,000 villages nationwide is expected to be further delayed, after the resignation of Minister Uttama Savanayana on Monday. (The Nation, 14/9/16)
  • VAT due for year-long extension. An extension of the 7% value-added tax (VAT) rate for another year will go before the cabinet today, says the head of the Revenue Department.The 7% tax rate is set to expire on Sept 30, said director-general Prasong Poontaneat. VAT was first introduced in 1992 at a rate of 10%, but was immediately slashed to 7% at the request of businesses. The rate has been kept at 7% ever since. (Bangkok Post, 13/9/16)
  • Increasingly risky to delay US rate hike, Fed’s Rosengren says. The Federal Reserve, long hesitant to raise U.S. interest rates, increasingly faces risks if it waits too much longer so a gradual policy tightening is likely appropriate, a top Fed official said on Friday. In another sign that a U.S. rate hike is approaching, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said “risks to the forecast are becoming increasingly two-sided.” That means that while a slowdown overseas remains a concern, the U.S. economy has proven resilient and could even overheat if Fed policy remains unchanged for too much longer, he said. (CNBC, 9/9/16) Continue reading WHTW: Top 10

Market Update 04/09 – 09/09

Well that was rather fortuitous. At the beginning of last week I wrote that I hate the month of September, and this has year been no different with some -6% knocked off the SET so far this month. Granted I personally may be influenced because I still remember the times of ’07 and ’08 regarding my hatred of September. Now what can we expect this week? Central bankerssssssssss, ECB already came out saying nothing, the BOJ is delaying future plans until their parliament is figured out and the Fed well that’s the kicker. Will they delay again? If so, bulls are back, if not, bears will coming roaring out of hibernation.

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WHTW: Top 10

  •  Fixing of structural issues urged. THE ECONOMY has the potential to grow by 4.5-5.5 per cent a year if the country addresses hindering structural issues, said Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob. (The Nation, 7/9/16)
  • Nod for Gold Line monorail, but impact study requested. THE BT3.8-BILLION Gold Line monorail project for western Bangkok along the Chao Phraya River was given the green light by the Cabinet yesterday, with the line expected to be in service in 2018. (The Nation, 7/9/16)
  • CAT Telecom’s 4G service scheduled for My brand launch next month. CAT TELECOM plans to launch 4G service as part of its My brand mobile phone operations next month, Viroj Tocharoenvanith, senior executive vice president for wireless business, said yesterday. The new 4G service will mainly utilise the True Move H network of True Corp, after CAT and True reached a network-roaming deal recently. Viroj said CAT was currently testing the roaming and technical aspects the 4G service, which would be officially launched next month. The roaming 4G network with True – part of CAT’s recent agreement with True Move H Universal Communication (TUC) – would see TUC paying a rental fee of Bt9.3 billion to CAT for using the state agency’s 3G-850MHz network to provide wireless broadband service. (The Nation, 7/9/16)
  • Govt to issue benchmark bonds. THE government plans to raise more than half of the estimated Bt957.72 billion under its fund-mobilisation plan through benchmark bond issues in the next fiscal year starting next month, according to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO). (Bangkok Post, 9/9/16)
  • US created 151,000 jobs in August vs. 180,000 jobs expected — Nonfarm payrolls increased just 151,000 for the month, extending the futility August has experienced over the years. This is now the 10th time in the past 13 years the month whiffed on market expectations. Wall Street economists were expecting the nonfarm payrolls report to show a gain of 180,000 in August, with the unemployment rate ticking down one-tenth to 4.8 percent. Wage growth slowed. In addition to the below-expectation number, wage growth actually took a step back, with hourly earnings up just 3 cents and an annualized pace of 2.4 percent. The average work week declined 0.1 percent to 34.3 hours. (CNBC, 5/9/16)

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Market Update 22/08 – 26/08

So we are approaching the wonderful month of September where things normally go wrong. There are a litany of potential market negative news that could hit so lets see how everything unfolds. Sector wise, interesting that consumer products index hasn’t quite kept up the runs in services, and that insurance names continue to be weak – low rates aren’t a good thing for these mini investment houses.

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Management Trades 22/08 – 26/08

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 33 mn

  • N/A

Sell(s) THB 2.4 bn

  • MTLS – A huge sale from the owner. Does he not see a continuation of the 50% YoY growth after 2017?
  • TKN – Again the major shareholders sell, looks like a block trade
  • BEAUTY – See TKN
  • BA – Now this is a rarity, a sell out of BA. When will they get rid of their BDMS shares?
  • HMPRO – And he continues to sell
  • MCS – Ohh a first sell from this wonderful steel manufacturer.

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WHTW: Top 10

  • Targeted strategies to boost exports being devised — With exports remaining sluggish, the Commerce Ministry is devising targeted strategies to improve the situation next year. (Bangkok Post, 22/8/16)
  • Economic corridor transport projects expected to go to Cabinet soon — DEPUTY Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak expects to propose the transport-system projects to serve the planned East Economic Corridor to the Cabinet in October.
  • Cabinet backs Sino-Thai high-speed railway deal – AFTER A LONG DELAY, the Sino-Thai high-speed railroad scheme looks set to shift into gear by year-end with Thailand funding all of the civil engineering work. (The Nation, 24/08/1
  • FPO says target won’t be achieved  — The government’s investment budget disbursement for this fiscal year, ending Sept 30, will fall short of its 87% target, a senior official at the Finance Ministry says. (Bangkok Post, 25/8/16)
  • Fischer Signals 2016 Rate Hike With Economy Nearing Fed Goals — Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer signaled that a 2016 rate hike is still under consideration, saying the U.S. economy is already close to meeting the central bank’s goals and that growth will gain steam. “We are close to our targets,” Fischer said in a speech at the Aspen Institute in Aspen, Colorado on Sunday. “Looking ahead, I expect GDP growth to pick up in coming quarters, as investment recovers from a surprisingly weak patch and the drag from past dollar appreciation diminishes,” he added, without giving explicit views on his rate outlook. (Bloomberg, 22/8/16)

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WHTW: Top 10

  • Thai referendum: Military-written constitution approved — A clear majority of Thai referendum voters have backed a draft constitution written by an army-appointed committee. Unofficial tallies show that 61.45% voted in favour. The military threw out the old constitution when it took power in 2014, after months of political instability and sporadic violence. Supporters of the new document say it will restore stability, but critics say it will entrench military control. (BBC, 7/8/16)
  • Megaprojects to get boost from Yes vote — The government’s 20 planned megaprojects with a combined valued of 1.41 trillion baht are set to move forward smoothly after the Yes vote for the new constitution . (CNBC, 8/8/16) Egat eyes B345bn investment — The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) is mulling a plan to launch another infrastructure fund in order to raise cash to develop highvoltage transmission lines, eyeing a 345.05-billion-baht investment budget. (Bangkok Post, 9/8/16)
  • US created 255,000 jobs in July vs. 180,000 jobs expected — Job creation crushed estimates in July as the economy added 255,000 positions, according to the Labor Department. The headline unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent, though a more encompassing measure that includes those not actively looking for work and those working part-time for economic reasons moved up a notch to 9.7 percent. Though still mired near generational lows, the labor force participation rate ticked up one-tenth to 62.8 percent as those counted as not in the labor force decreased 184,000 to 94.3 million. (CNBC, 8/8/16)
  • China Exports Remain Subdued as Import Drop Fuels Demand Concern — China’s exports remained sluggish last month, signaling tepid global demand, while deteriorating imports raise concern domestic conditions may be weakening anew. Overseas shipments fell 4.4 percent in U.S. dollars, rose 2.9 percent in yuan terms in July from a year earlier.  Imports dropped 12.5 percent in dollar terms, slipped 5.7 percent in local currency. Trade surplus widened to $52.3 billion. (Bloomberg, 8/8/16)

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