Category Archives: Market

Research on Thai Markets in general and the SET Index

Market Update 19/09 – 23/09

The wonderful month that is September is nearly over, hasn’t it been a fun ride? This week there isn’t much news left, today we are expecting some trade data – likely to be weak, but otherwise the central banks are done for the next 2-3 months and it should be a relatively quiet week news flow wise.

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WHTW: Top 10

  • Thailand Future Fund to be IPO-filed this year end. The financial advisors are selecting projects to be included in the funds. The 3 possible projects are Motorway #7, Motorway #9 and Rama III-Dao Kanong-Bangkok outer ring road. (Bangkok Biz, 16/9/16)
  • Fresh stimulus on the way. The government is poised to launch a fresh round of stimulus measures, targeting agriculture specifically, in an effort to ward off downside risks to economic growth as the recovery sputters along. (Bangkok Post, 22/9/16)
  • Sino-Thai railwork set for December. The draft contract for the Sino-Thai highspeed railway should be finalised in October, and the first phase of construction is expected to start in December, says Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith. (Bangkok Post, 22/9/16)
  • TOT signs six-month deal for AWN trial roaming on 2.1GHz. TOT and Advanced Wireless Network, a subsidiary of Advanced Info Service (AIS), signed a sixmonth contract on Tuesday that will see AWN trial-roaming on the state agency’s 2.1-gigahertz spectrum, said a TOT source. (The Nation, 22/9/16)
  • GH Bank asked to put low-income people in homes. DEPUTY Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak yesterday asked the Government Housing (GH) Bank to join the Treasury Department, the National Housing Authority and other agencies to find ways for low-income earners and the elderly to own homes. (The Nati on, 23/9/16)

Continue reading WHTW: Top 10

Market Update 12/09 – 16/09

Well its mid-way through my favourite month of the year and the SET is down some -4.5%, why? Well we know why but can’t type it in public, though from what I’ve been told everything has been pre-arranged internally. You take from that what you will. The Fed is supposedly meeting soon and that should add another round of volatility to the markets this month and a lot of local brokers are stating that because the FTSE rebalancing is done that we may see more weakness in the market. Fun times for sure.

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Management Trades 12/09 – 16/09

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 167 mn

  • BTW – A switch between shareholders
  • EARTH – Oh he’s back to buying shares again. One of the strangest coal companies around..

Sell(s) THB 435 mn

  • ORI –  This was the block sale to Templeton
  • PT – Interesting that after he sold the block of shares the share price moved
  • RS – Does the owner not believe in his cosmetic products?
  • BTW – See above

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WHTW: Top 10

  • Household debt up sharply: Reckless policy and slow growth at fault. Average household debt in the year to date has risen by 20.2%, the highest growth in nine years, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC). (Bangkok Post, 16/9/16)
  •  BoT watch on foreign bondholders. The Bank of Thailand will require bond custodians to provide information regarding non-resident holders who are end beneficiaries of bonds issued in Thailand.  End. (Bangkok Post, 16/9/16)
  • Resignation may delay village broadband scheme. THE INFORMATION and Communications Technology Ministry’s plan to provide free broadband Internet access in 30,000 villages nationwide is expected to be further delayed, after the resignation of Minister Uttama Savanayana on Monday. (The Nation, 14/9/16)
  • VAT due for year-long extension. An extension of the 7% value-added tax (VAT) rate for another year will go before the cabinet today, says the head of the Revenue Department.The 7% tax rate is set to expire on Sept 30, said director-general Prasong Poontaneat. VAT was first introduced in 1992 at a rate of 10%, but was immediately slashed to 7% at the request of businesses. The rate has been kept at 7% ever since. (Bangkok Post, 13/9/16)
  • Increasingly risky to delay US rate hike, Fed’s Rosengren says. The Federal Reserve, long hesitant to raise U.S. interest rates, increasingly faces risks if it waits too much longer so a gradual policy tightening is likely appropriate, a top Fed official said on Friday. In another sign that a U.S. rate hike is approaching, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said “risks to the forecast are becoming increasingly two-sided.” That means that while a slowdown overseas remains a concern, the U.S. economy has proven resilient and could even overheat if Fed policy remains unchanged for too much longer, he said. (CNBC, 9/9/16) Continue reading WHTW: Top 10

Market Update 04/09 – 09/09

Well that was rather fortuitous. At the beginning of last week I wrote that I hate the month of September, and this has year been no different with some -6% knocked off the SET so far this month. Granted I personally may be influenced because I still remember the times of ’07 and ’08 regarding my hatred of September. Now what can we expect this week? Central bankerssssssssss, ECB already came out saying nothing, the BOJ is delaying future plans until their parliament is figured out and the Fed well that’s the kicker. Will they delay again? If so, bulls are back, if not, bears will coming roaring out of hibernation.

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Raghuram Rajan: The independence of the central bank

I enjoyed reading this speech from the now former head of the RBI, it does give a quick insight into the thinkings of a central banker.

To bolster the value of the rupee, we had to give investors more certainty that future inflation would be low. After all, it was primarily India’s higher inflation with respect to the rest of the world that led to periodic abrupt falls in rupee value. Then Deputy Governor and now my successor, Dr. Urjit Patel, agreed to prepare a report on how we could move to a new inflation-focused monetary regime. That would help very much in the medium term, but in the short run we had to establish that we were not heading towards crisis. The easiest way to demonstrate that was to show we could raise plenty of foreign exchange.

This mission, however, exposes the central bank to criticism. If we try and bring down inflation, interest rates will remain higher than borrowers desire. If inflation comes down, the currency will depreciate less than some exporters desire. If we push the banks to clean up, banks may be less tolerant towards habitual non-payers. Whatever we do, someone will object. The RBI then becomes the favorite scapegoat for underperformance – if exports are not picking up, it is because interest rates are too high and because the exchange rate is too strong.

Source: BIS

WHTW: Top 10

  •  Fixing of structural issues urged. THE ECONOMY has the potential to grow by 4.5-5.5 per cent a year if the country addresses hindering structural issues, said Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob. (The Nation, 7/9/16)
  • Nod for Gold Line monorail, but impact study requested. THE BT3.8-BILLION Gold Line monorail project for western Bangkok along the Chao Phraya River was given the green light by the Cabinet yesterday, with the line expected to be in service in 2018. (The Nation, 7/9/16)
  • CAT Telecom’s 4G service scheduled for My brand launch next month. CAT TELECOM plans to launch 4G service as part of its My brand mobile phone operations next month, Viroj Tocharoenvanith, senior executive vice president for wireless business, said yesterday. The new 4G service will mainly utilise the True Move H network of True Corp, after CAT and True reached a network-roaming deal recently. Viroj said CAT was currently testing the roaming and technical aspects the 4G service, which would be officially launched next month. The roaming 4G network with True – part of CAT’s recent agreement with True Move H Universal Communication (TUC) – would see TUC paying a rental fee of Bt9.3 billion to CAT for using the state agency’s 3G-850MHz network to provide wireless broadband service. (The Nation, 7/9/16)
  • Govt to issue benchmark bonds. THE government plans to raise more than half of the estimated Bt957.72 billion under its fund-mobilisation plan through benchmark bond issues in the next fiscal year starting next month, according to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO). (Bangkok Post, 9/9/16)
  • US created 151,000 jobs in August vs. 180,000 jobs expected — Nonfarm payrolls increased just 151,000 for the month, extending the futility August has experienced over the years. This is now the 10th time in the past 13 years the month whiffed on market expectations. Wall Street economists were expecting the nonfarm payrolls report to show a gain of 180,000 in August, with the unemployment rate ticking down one-tenth to 4.8 percent. Wage growth slowed. In addition to the below-expectation number, wage growth actually took a step back, with hourly earnings up just 3 cents and an annualized pace of 2.4 percent. The average work week declined 0.1 percent to 34.3 hours. (CNBC, 5/9/16)

Continue reading WHTW: Top 10

B. Wein: Adjusting to Disruptive Change

Him, H. Marks and B. Gross are some of the few commentaries that I enjoy reading monthly/quarterly.  The key message this month is in the first paragraph which is below, enjoy!

The first was that the world was condemned to a prolonged period of slow growth unless vigorous fiscal spending took place in the major industrialized economies. Monetary policy had been helpful in the recovery after the 2008–2009 recession, but its effectiveness as an economic stimulus had diminished. The second was that considering the uncertainties caused by margin compression, limited revenue growth, the U.S. political outlook, terrorism, Brexit and other factors, the fact that the U.S. equity market is making an all-time high is remarkable.

Source: Blackstone