Category Archives: Market

Research on Thai Markets in general and the SET Index

Weekly Industry Update

Comments:

The past week has been all about the Greeks acting democratic and the flood crisis in Thailand continuing. Only two industry sectors are still positive for the year and now we finally understand why ADVANC has remained so strong as INTUCH (formerly SHIN , owned by Temasek and holds 42.5% of ADVANC) will look to sell 2% of its shares to SINGTEL’s investment arm (which in turn owns 19.1% of ADVANC).

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Thailand Always Recovers

In my relatively short investment career in Thailand, I’ve seen the country experience the bird flu pandemic, tsunami in phuket, military coups, capital controls, riots, global financial crisis, swine flu, more riots, airport shut down, and yet this wonderfully silly country just somehow seems to always recover both in terms of economic performance and stock market performance, just see below to be amazed.

Chart 1 – SET Index

Table 1: Historical GDP Growth

So will Thailand recover from this flood crisis? Absolutely and it will surprise all the naysayers yet again.

Charts – SET/Brent

Latest thoughts from our resident Queen Chartist, Ploy. She was spot on last week with the change in sentiment and still forecasts a recovery until mid-November.

I wrote this comment after having arranged piles of sandbags around my house, located only 200 metres away from the Chao Phraya River. We really should have Futures contracts on sandbags and rubber boots. The price of sandbags has tripled over the past 2 weeks while the price of rubber boots doubled. Bottled water, canned tuna, eggs, and instant noodles are scarce. And, I have no wonder why the stock market is still open, based on the fact that I had to travel through bullets and bombs to work during the Red Shirt’s protest last year. The market was open until the Red Shirts put a fire on the first floor of the SET building. THAT is when the people over there knew they had to close the market. Note: The SET just announced today that if 12 brokerage firms were unable to send orders on behalf of clients then the market would be halted.

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Government Policies impact on the SET

Given that much of the news over the past four weeks has been either about the Euro Debt Crisis or the Flooding in Thailand not many market commentators nor analysts have spoken much about how the new government’s policies are going to impact the market here. Within the past two weeks the government has ratified two major policies, 1.) the increase of minimum wages to THB 300/day and 2.) the decrease in corporate income tax from 30% to 23% to 20% over the next two calendar years. I’ll post more later over the next week regarding its impact on specific companies but in the meanwhile see below for a brief table we sent out to clients last week.

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Weekly Industry Update

Commentary:

Year to date the Technology sector is still the best performer due to the Telco’s remaining buoyant on the back to potential 3G licensing to come through. Industrials are obviously the worst performers because of the flood crisis in Thailand. But we feel that there are good undervalued companies in this sector now because of this crisis (i.e. Hemraj. Amata both of which haven’t been directly affected by the floods).

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Small Mid Caps Thailand – Update

I love investing in small & mid cap stocks (SMC’s) in Thailand. I was first exposed to researching them back in 2006 when the fund I was with realised that none of us were very good traders of large caps, and that we were far better researchers of companies and industries. Since then I’ve never looked back from having them as a core portion of my portfolios. Below we show that SMC’s achieve a far higher annual return versus the market and large caps.

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Foreign Shareholding impact on Thai Stocks

Tracking foreign investors in Thailand is a necessity as they do have a substantial impact on the SET. We do this daily/monthly/quarterly by monitoring the change in NVDR holdings in Thai equities.

fyi: NVDR holdings, Non-Voting Depository Rights, are a vehicle in Thailand for non-thai investors to buy shares in Thai Equities. It is tracked daily by the Stock Exchange of Thailand

Without giving too much away we’ll just show the top 10 mkt cap, some fav’s of ours and the max percentage increase/decrease of changes in NVDR holdings. The period of this is from 30/08/11 to 28/09/11 .

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