Been a while since I’ve had a random thought, nothing has really interested me until something in the news this afternoon, so here’s a quick, poorly organised, 10-minute thought. I’ve been of the viewpoint that the military is working towards setting up their own political party to win the upcoming elections – whenever this may be held – and when I see news such as this.

The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) will give a green light to the formation of new political parties while limiting the activities of existing parties but assures the next general election will be held next November as announced.

Source: Bangkok Post

• New Parties? In the new constitution political parties are not allowed – not many people know this, friends and I were joking about setting up our own party years ago but realised this wasn’t possible once the new constitution was invoked by the electorate (btw I still think Pheu Thai is ripe for a backdoor takeover). But with the magical wand that is Section 44 the military can of course set up their own political party, win an election, and bring happiness and smiles to the people. It does make me wonder, how will they win? It’ll be up against the Democrats in the Central and Southern Regions, and up against Pheu Thai in the rest of the country. Will Suthep join them? They’ll need bring in popular politicians that the grass roots would support. Its going to be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Personally I’ve begun to assume a worst case scenario for the elections in the past few months despite the news over the past few months.

• I still see a main event such as the Coronation of Rama X to occur before any election and typically such events would be held in the 4Q of any year so at the earliest this would be in 4Q18 and elections won’t occur at the same time as a Coronation. So based upon this one potential event, elections would be postponed to 4Q19.
• Would delaying elections from 4Q18 by the existing government be anything new? No, since they took over in 2014, they’ve promised elections in 2015, 2016, 2017, it wouldn’t be totally impossible for elections to be postponed again.
• Now for the election to occur in November 2018 the “organic law” is that all parties to have to complete process such as notifications of party members to the registrar within 90 days of the law coming into effect from the 8th October 2017, so that means by 5 Jan 2018.
  • Question: How can political parties submit such a registrar when there are still bans in place for parties to meet?
  • Government Answer: The PM says that the military will gradually ease its ban on political parties and use the magical section 44 to amend the law on political parties if this deadline isn’t met.
  • Viewpoint: The Government is telling the political parties to be quiet
• Argument that elections will go ahead: Some may point to the fact that the EU announced its decision to resume political contacts after the return to democracy was announced
  • Viewpoint: Well no they work with China and Russia, in the end it boils down to money, Thailand is in ASEAN which has 600 million people and a real GDP of USD 2.6 trn and there are several bilateral trade agreements waiting to be signed.

Now has the military done a poor job governing? No worse than any other political party, the benefit has been that there has been stability, there has been continuity, on the business side – projects are going ahead and in reality life is the same for most people. So they’ve actually done a decent job setting out to do what they initially announced.

So, I still see far too many hurdles in place today to be able to confidently expect an election in Nov 2018 especially if they want to form their own party and put the date in my mind at 4Q19. Or perhaps I’m completely wrong, perhaps the military does realise it should walk away now with the few brownie points its garnered and perhaps Thailand will hold elections in 4Q18 and I’ll be quiet and walk away with a submarine, some tanks and helicopters and a new watch from a businessman friend, because in the end all these thoughts don’t matter as they already control Parliament.

Impact on the market if there is another delay in elections? It’s not a first time surprise thus, nothing negative.