Tag Archives: bec

Random Thoughts – Governments, infrastructure, central going wild, sweet sugar and more…

Which country’s government set up is this?
440 members, 330 elected 110 appointed by the Military. If you thought of Thailand I wouldn’t blame you, that is Myanmar’s current structure, raises quite a few questions doesn’t it?
Thailand infrastructure projects 
These ones are postponed – Mr Peerapol said the three projects are the Pink Line electric train from Khae Rai to Min Buri, worth 56.6 billion baht; the Yellow Line electric train from Lat Phrao to Samrong, worth 54.6 billion baht; and the joint Thai-Japanese double-track Kanchanaburi-Bangkok-Chachoengsao-Aranyaprathet and Bangkok-Chiang Mai rail routes.
And these ones are going ahead – First of the four lines is the 132km Map Kabao-Jira route, which will cost Bt29.67 billion. The project, being considered by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), should be added to the Cabinet agenda in the second week of May. The targeted completion date is 2020.The second project, the 165km Nakhon Pathom-Hua Hin route costing Bt20.15 billion, should be ready by 2019, while the third is the 90km Hua Hin-Muang Prachuap Khiri Khan line worth Bt10.30 billion.
So what? It does prove that the government is hell bent on approving all of the dual track projects asap and effectively everything else takes a back seat.
Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever 
I’ve been following Jeff Gundlach for years and whatever he says you most likely should take it as a given. Here are some great quotes and the link to the rest of the interview
So you have to find a center piece idea that will be important in driving the market. And you have to have an intuition about how other investors will react if you’re right and they wake up to that idea.
Negative interest rates are designed to fight deflation. But they are the very definition of deflation: Your money is disappearing. As an investor, you are going to have less money in the future than you have today with negative interest rates.
Recessions don’t drive financial markets. It’s the other way around.
The markets have humiliated the Fed into abandoning their pretty idiotic forecast.
CPALL and BEC back in the news

CPALL and BEC have been in the news again, this time with Thaipat Institute who “has removed CP All Plc and BEC World Plc from its top 100 listed companies ranked by environmental, social and governance measures, citing the pair’s tainted corporate reputation. ” Normally I would have posted this immediately, but I’ve never heard of thaipat until this news And I doubt many other people had either. But he did have a rather priceless quote “Companies that have good practices but bad performance, and good performance but bad practices are worthless,” Mr Pipat said. If only the world was really that black and white.

Sweet Sugar
Getting our sugar fix will become pricier with a proposed sugar tax – Soft drinks will likely be 20-25% more expensive if the cabinet approves the sugar tax rates proposed by reform councilors.
Two rates of the excise tax were proposed based on different sugar levels. Drinks with more than 6g to 10g per 100ml of sugar would be subject to a rate that would raise their retail prices by at least 20%. Those with more than 10g of sugar would see their prices at least 25% higher.
So we did an extensive market survey at the office (a total of 5 people of which 2 drink sugar drinks) and when you do the numbers..well an ichitan branded drink will go from 12 baht to 16 baht..not quite the end of the world, so will demand disappear and will people stop buying these “sugary” products, nope. If a government was really concerned about the nation’s health, easy ban cigarettes. To the markets, both ICHI and OISHI took a slight hit – interesting factoid, ICHI is now below its IPO price.
Central going wild
Central Group has been on the prowl! First with Zalora and now BIG C Vietnam.
“AT CENTRAL GROUP, online shopping contributed only 0.5 per cent of total sales last year. In a country where mobile-phone penetration is more than 100 per cent, with smartphones accounting for 70 per cent of phones in use, it is more than obvious that the retail giant must step up its e-commerce to be ahead of rival retailers and small tech companies.”
So for the Zalora purchase, things are still being finanlised using their listed co, Central Online (COL). Now at first I thought that typically central group doesn’t pay crazy prices for anything, I hope they maintain it here. All of these ecommerce sites in Thailand, despite the amount of news and marketing are losing tonnes of money!! Where’s the value in a business that is constantly losing cash every year? Oh the subscribers? The network? You could argue it both ways, but in the end isn’t a business that doesn’t make $ rather pointless?
And then Central Group went ahead and beat TCC to buying BIGC Vietnam…so much for not paying crazy prices.
He said Big C Vietnam had 43 stores nationwide, comprising 33 hypermarkets and 10 convenience stores, and 30 shopping malls. “Total revenue in 2015 was approximately 586 million euros.”
“Casino yesterday on its official website announced the closing of the sale of Big C Vietnam to Central Group, for an enterprise value of 1 billion euros, implying 2015 multiples of 1.8 times net sales, 20.4 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) and 34.4 times EBIT.”
MAI call for more auditors
This has been a recurring issue since the SEC cut the auditor list by half 1.5 years ago. And they wonder why the growth in the capital markets are slow. Then again they are just a regulator….though I don’t think that Prapan knows what’s he talking, stock analysts almost never cover MAI listings nor any company that is typically below THB 30 bn in market cap. Why? It’s the business model, small companies – less liquidity – less commissions, but of course if there is a great story or a strong relationship then every once in a while you’ll see a smaller name covered.
“The shortage of auditors and financial advisers has led to slow growth in new listed companies, says Prapan Charoenprawat, president of Market for Alternative Investment (MAI). Mr Prapan said the market had seen growing demand for companies to list on the bourse because listed firms have successfully raised funds through their issuance of initial public offerings (IPOs) and other financial tools. The market, however, can only accommodate a fraction of them due to limited resources. “It’s not just a lack of financial advisers and auditors, we’ve also fallen short of stock analysts who can cover MAI listings, resulting in a lack of investor confidence,” he said.”

Stocks in the news (abc, advanc, ask, bec, big, cnt, ea, gold, gunkul, ktc, oto, ps, pstc, pt, ptt, sf, trc, uac) 16.03.16

ABC
ABC expects net profit to be back in the black this year. It expects to launch ABC Residence and ABC Pet World projects, valued at Bt7.5bn, in 3Q16. It plans to wipe out all retained losses this year. (Khao Hoon, 16/03/16)
Comment: I’m beginning to be very bored of the newsflow from this company….

ADVANC ‘Respite’ for AIS’s 400,000 2G users facing cut-off – The Central Administrative Court decided to allow AIS extend the signals for 2G SIM cards on the 900 MHz network until March 21. The signals were due to be switched off at midnight yesterday The court’s decision follows a request by ADVANC for an order to force the NBTC to extend the period for 2G customer retention and ensure service continuity as stipulated in rules set out by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC). (Bangkok Post, 16/03/16)
Comment: Now the question is what will happen to that license if JAS doesn’t pay up?

ASK
ASK expects 2016 loan growth of 15% backed by higher truck demand for government projects and stimulus measures. It expects to benefit from AEC. It plans to expand its customer base. (Thun Hoon, 16/03/16)
Comment: While still paying a decent dividend.

BEC
BEC has high hopes of sports programmes shoring up TV ratings and advertising revenue on top of top-rated dramas this year after the news-show category experienced a slowdown due to intense competition and the impact from the departure of famous TV host Sorrayuth Suthassanachinda. (The Nation, 16/03/16)
Comment: People slightly misunderstand what is happening with BEC, everyone says that they are losing a fortune but in reality they are still the leading player in the media business, but because of increased supply in the industry their ASP’s have dropped.

BIG
BIG expects 1Q16 earnings to be good with net profit of Bt160mn (120% growth) thanks to camera sales. It expects its market share to increase to 63% this year. (Khao Hoon, 16/03/16)
Comment: Much to our surprise, the stock has been on a tear for the past few months

CNT
CNT expects 2016 net profit to grow backed by higher revenue from condominium projects. (Khao Hoon, 16/03/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (abc, advanc, ask, bec, big, cnt, ea, gold, gunkul, ktc, oto, ps, pstc, pt, ptt, sf, trc, uac) 16.03.16

Management Trades 25/01 – 29/01

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 175 mn

  • BEC – Ohhhh and now they’re back into buying shares – or is just a switch between family members?
  • BANPU – It’s not often that we see anyone buying shares here. A bottom forming perhaps for BANPU? It has been a dog of the SET for years….

Sell(s) THB 263 mn

  • ITD – Selling more shares again, a recap coming up soon?
  • SPPT – Huge sale by the MD but they have announced that it is to another family member

mgmttrades

Management Trades 12/10 – 16/10

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 169 mn

  • MALEE – Looks like a swap between the Central family members
  • RS – And the owner keeps buying and buying

Sell(s) THB 959 mn

  • BEC – Another large block sale by the maleenont family
  • MALEE – See above
  • MINT – Quite rare to see this director sell his shares in MINT, he’s been there for the past….15 or so years
  • ACAP – It’s been news in the market that the major shareholders of ACAP have sold out.
  • KC – This property company is somehow trading @ THB 2.5 bn mkt cap even though it’s profits have never been higher than THB 40 mn in the past 5 years
  • TIPCO – These shares have run up because of its holding in TASCO, no surprise seeing a large sale here.

mgmt_trade

Management Trades 05/10 – 09/10

Notable Transactions

Buy(s)  THB 588 mn

  • RS – And he keeps buying and buying and buying
  • MTI – The 4th largest shareholder and family member has decided to buy more shares doubling his stake to 4.9% in the company.
  • AJ – Looks like a share swap between the shareholders
  • COL – The founder/CEO has decided must’ve thought that the price was too cheap @ 36 baht, he effectively marked the low for the company’s stock this year.
  • SC – Except for a period during 1Q13, this stock price hasn’t really performed compared to its peers, thus interesting to see management/directors buying some THB 25 mn worth of shares

Sell(s) THB 1.2 bn

  • BEC – Ohhh a HUGE sale by the owners, THB 1 bn here
  • CSS – Now why would the chairman/ceo sell a stake at these levels? News and rumours had led investors to believe that CSS will be one of the few companies to benefit from the 4G towers
  • AJ – see above

151012 mgmt_trades

Stocks in the news (advanc, aeonts, bec, dcon, demco, fsmart, irpc, mcs, mill, sena, sim, sricha, sst, tae, tvt, tsr) 24.09.15

ADVANC
ADVANC expects 3Q15 net profit of Bt8.6bn (-4%) affected by decreasing service revenue and profit margin on sale of mobile handsets and rising marketing expense and depreciation. It expects 4Q15 earnings to be better because of the 4G auction. (Khao Hoon, 24/09/15)
Comment: It’s the same story every couple of years for AIS, in the end they are still the largest player, they still have the cleanest balance sheet and they’ll still continue to dominate.
AEONTS
AEONTS reported 2QFY15 net profit of Bt731mn (+40%QoQ). It plans to pay an interim dividend of Bt1.6/share. It targets FY2015 loan growth of 3-4% aided by government stimulus measures. It plans to expand its credit card customer base in Bangkok from its existing 2mn cards. (Thun Hoon, 24/09/15)
Comment: Ex its 1 time gain, earnings growth was only single digits for AEONTS
BEC
BEC expects 2015 revenue to drop by 5-10% and net profit to drop more than 10% from last year. It expects its performance to be better than peers. It says the drop in performance was caused by the economic slowdown and high competition. (Khao Hoon, 24/09/15)
Comment: While they may still be #1, their financial performance just shows the damage that digital TV has done to incumbents.
DCON
DCON plans to focus on power, construction and materials, and property businesses. It expects 3Q15 earnings to be good backed by large orders. It expects 2016 performance to turn around. (Thun Hoon, 24/09/15)
DEMCO
DEMCO expects 3Q15 earnings to be good aided by Bt3.7bn transfers from Bt8.8bn work on hand. It plans to bid for new projects both local and abroad. It expects 2015 revenue of Bt6bn. (Thun Hoon, 24/09/15)
Comment: And WEH IPO’ing next year should be a positive

Continue reading Stocks in the news (advanc, aeonts, bec, dcon, demco, fsmart, irpc, mcs, mill, sena, sim, sricha, sst, tae, tvt, tsr) 24.09.15

Digital TV finally gets a break

The Digital TV Industry has been having its own version of battle royale with the competition for ratings sending bidding prices for new shows through the roof and if you look at every company related to digital tv, all of their earnings were poor in 2014 and 1Q15, as a result of this they have essentially gotten together to sue the NBTC into doing something to save the industry from disaster and it looks like they’ve won the first step.

The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) board has agreed to postpone digital TV operators’ second licence fee payment for another year.
Secretary–general Takorn Tantasith said the telecommunications regulator yesterday decided to postpone the second licence fee payment, totalling 8.7 billion baht and due on May 24, for a year to help reduce the financial burden on digital TV operators.

Thus it’s good news for WORK, RS, GRAMMY, BEC, MCOT, MONO, NMG and several other players.

Source: Bangkok Post

Stocks in the news (aot, bec, centel, ci, dtc, epg, gc, jas, mlink, pca, samart, ttcl, tru, twz) 26.03.15

AOT
APPS moving forward – AOT’s board has approved the hiring of 2S Consortium to operate the Advance Passenger Processing System (APPS), an online passenger-information exchange system, to improve customs and immigration services and shorten entry time at airports. The consortium consists of Somapa Information Technology and Samart Comtech. AOT will charge Bt35/passenger and expects to start this system on October 1, 2015, applied only to passengers passing through Suvarnabhumi. (Daily News, Bangkok Post, 26/03/15)

BEC
BEC plans to raise ad rate this year after no rate hike for the past three years. However, it depends on how intense the competition from digital TV is. (Kao Hoon, 26/03/15)
Comment: BEC is still the number 1 channel operator in thailand today in terms of ad rates, but digital tv is definitely going to be an issue for them with the increased competition

CENTEL
CENTEL expects Bt20bn revenues this year (from Bt18bn last year). 1Q15 earnings should be strong from high occupancy rate. The company is studying JVs in Myanmar and Sri Lanka. (Thun Hoon, 26/03/15)

Comment: Still is and forever will be a B grade, no wait C grade version of MINT

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, bec, centel, ci, dtc, epg, gc, jas, mlink, pca, samart, ttcl, tru, twz) 26.03.15

Stocks in the news (aot, aq, bec, ccp, cgd, bland, bts, delta, gfpt, lalin, oishi, sim, sithai, tae, thcom, uniq, uv) 30.09.14

AOT
AoT to seek Dec nod for new terminal – Airports of Thailand (AoT) Plc will ask the cabinet as early as December to approve the construction of a second terminal at Suvarnabhumi airport to serve more passengers. AoT board chairman Prasong Phunthanet will meet Transport Minister ACM Prajin Juntong today to discuss the construction plan which will replace the costly second-phase development of the crowded airport. (Bangkok Post, 30/09/14)
Comment: In reality AOT has to reopen Terminal 2 in Don Muang as well as expanding Suvarnabhumi Airport.

AQ
AQ approves to buy Villa Nakarin shares worth Bt176.6mn and expects payback period of 2.5 years. It believes the investment will increase its competitive advantage and profitability. (Kao Hoon, 30/09/14)

BEC
BEC refuses to accept NBTC’s latest ruling – Bangkok Entertainment Co (BEC), the concession holder that operates Channel 3, has again refused to comply with the broadcasting regulator’s latest resolution requiring it to migrate its analogue TV programming to the digital platform via a simulcast. (Bangkok Post, 30/09/14)
Comment: Well BEC has been given an additional period to still continue broadcasting, looks like the NBTC won’t be able to force BEC to shift to using digital TV 100%

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, aq, bec, ccp, cgd, bland, bts, delta, gfpt, lalin, oishi, sim, sithai, tae, thcom, uniq, uv) 30.09.14

Stocks in the news (ap, bec, city, dna, gel, hitech, intuch, nok, ptnum, takuni, tipco, tk, tks) 24.09.14

AP
AP, Mitsubishi lay out plans – Mitsubishi Estate Group (MEC), one of Japan’s largest developers, plans to launch three to four residential projects next year in partnership with SET-listed developer AP (Thailand) Plc to capitalise on the recovering economy and improved political climate. “Thailand’s fundamentals such as long-term economic prospects and people’s income remain sound,” said Shojiro Kojima, managing director of affiliate Mitsubishi Estate Asia (MEA). “Our investment is truly for the long term.” (Bangkok Post, 24/09/14)
Comment: It’s a good plan for AP, lightens their balance sheet while still being able to continue expansion

BEC
Channel 3 talks fail, BEC may sue — The second round of talks to end the dispute between Channel 3 and the broadcasting regulator was another failure, and Bangkok Entertainment Co, holder of the analogue channel’s concession, is mulling legal action. (Bangkok Post, 24/09/14)
Comment: BEC is still facing a potential blackout

CITY
CITY sets revenue FY2015 growth target of 5-10% backed by an increase in its customer base. It plans to invest Bt50mn into maintenance and repair on its machinery. It has set up a subsidiary in Hong Kong and hopes to create a brand image for its electronic appliances. The board is also studying plans to expand into alternative energy. (Thun Hoon, 24/09/14)
Comment: CITY is a well-run little company that used to be a very straightforward 5-10% growth with a decent dividend.

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ap, bec, city, dna, gel, hitech, intuch, nok, ptnum, takuni, tipco, tk, tks) 24.09.14