Tag Archives: COL

Management Trades 13/06 – 17/06

Notable transactions

Buy(s) THB 606 mn

  • BDMS – Massive buying again!
  • COL – Now this interesting, I’ve always wondered when or how this company will be able to be successful. Would Central Group shove its Lazada purchase into COL?
  • PLANB – Their 1Q #’s were awful hence the ~20% drop in share price, but the owners seem to still believe in its future

Sell(s) THB 8.2 bn

  • AAV – Boom the huge sale to King Power
  • KSL – Are they still afraid of sugar prices?
  • IHL – The MD sells some 2% of outstanding shares

MGMT_trades

Random Thoughts – Governments, infrastructure, central going wild, sweet sugar and more…

Which country’s government set up is this?
440 members, 330 elected 110 appointed by the Military. If you thought of Thailand I wouldn’t blame you, that is Myanmar’s current structure, raises quite a few questions doesn’t it?
Thailand infrastructure projects 
These ones are postponed – Mr Peerapol said the three projects are the Pink Line electric train from Khae Rai to Min Buri, worth 56.6 billion baht; the Yellow Line electric train from Lat Phrao to Samrong, worth 54.6 billion baht; and the joint Thai-Japanese double-track Kanchanaburi-Bangkok-Chachoengsao-Aranyaprathet and Bangkok-Chiang Mai rail routes.
And these ones are going ahead – First of the four lines is the 132km Map Kabao-Jira route, which will cost Bt29.67 billion. The project, being considered by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), should be added to the Cabinet agenda in the second week of May. The targeted completion date is 2020.The second project, the 165km Nakhon Pathom-Hua Hin route costing Bt20.15 billion, should be ready by 2019, while the third is the 90km Hua Hin-Muang Prachuap Khiri Khan line worth Bt10.30 billion.
So what? It does prove that the government is hell bent on approving all of the dual track projects asap and effectively everything else takes a back seat.
Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever 
I’ve been following Jeff Gundlach for years and whatever he says you most likely should take it as a given. Here are some great quotes and the link to the rest of the interview
So you have to find a center piece idea that will be important in driving the market. And you have to have an intuition about how other investors will react if you’re right and they wake up to that idea.
Negative interest rates are designed to fight deflation. But they are the very definition of deflation: Your money is disappearing. As an investor, you are going to have less money in the future than you have today with negative interest rates.
Recessions don’t drive financial markets. It’s the other way around.
The markets have humiliated the Fed into abandoning their pretty idiotic forecast.
CPALL and BEC back in the news

CPALL and BEC have been in the news again, this time with Thaipat Institute who “has removed CP All Plc and BEC World Plc from its top 100 listed companies ranked by environmental, social and governance measures, citing the pair’s tainted corporate reputation. ” Normally I would have posted this immediately, but I’ve never heard of thaipat until this news And I doubt many other people had either. But he did have a rather priceless quote “Companies that have good practices but bad performance, and good performance but bad practices are worthless,” Mr Pipat said. If only the world was really that black and white.

Sweet Sugar
Getting our sugar fix will become pricier with a proposed sugar tax – Soft drinks will likely be 20-25% more expensive if the cabinet approves the sugar tax rates proposed by reform councilors.
Two rates of the excise tax were proposed based on different sugar levels. Drinks with more than 6g to 10g per 100ml of sugar would be subject to a rate that would raise their retail prices by at least 20%. Those with more than 10g of sugar would see their prices at least 25% higher.
So we did an extensive market survey at the office (a total of 5 people of which 2 drink sugar drinks) and when you do the numbers..well an ichitan branded drink will go from 12 baht to 16 baht..not quite the end of the world, so will demand disappear and will people stop buying these “sugary” products, nope. If a government was really concerned about the nation’s health, easy ban cigarettes. To the markets, both ICHI and OISHI took a slight hit – interesting factoid, ICHI is now below its IPO price.
Central going wild
Central Group has been on the prowl! First with Zalora and now BIG C Vietnam.
“AT CENTRAL GROUP, online shopping contributed only 0.5 per cent of total sales last year. In a country where mobile-phone penetration is more than 100 per cent, with smartphones accounting for 70 per cent of phones in use, it is more than obvious that the retail giant must step up its e-commerce to be ahead of rival retailers and small tech companies.”
So for the Zalora purchase, things are still being finanlised using their listed co, Central Online (COL). Now at first I thought that typically central group doesn’t pay crazy prices for anything, I hope they maintain it here. All of these ecommerce sites in Thailand, despite the amount of news and marketing are losing tonnes of money!! Where’s the value in a business that is constantly losing cash every year? Oh the subscribers? The network? You could argue it both ways, but in the end isn’t a business that doesn’t make $ rather pointless?
And then Central Group went ahead and beat TCC to buying BIGC Vietnam…so much for not paying crazy prices.
He said Big C Vietnam had 43 stores nationwide, comprising 33 hypermarkets and 10 convenience stores, and 30 shopping malls. “Total revenue in 2015 was approximately 586 million euros.”
“Casino yesterday on its official website announced the closing of the sale of Big C Vietnam to Central Group, for an enterprise value of 1 billion euros, implying 2015 multiples of 1.8 times net sales, 20.4 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) and 34.4 times EBIT.”
MAI call for more auditors
This has been a recurring issue since the SEC cut the auditor list by half 1.5 years ago. And they wonder why the growth in the capital markets are slow. Then again they are just a regulator….though I don’t think that Prapan knows what’s he talking, stock analysts almost never cover MAI listings nor any company that is typically below THB 30 bn in market cap. Why? It’s the business model, small companies – less liquidity – less commissions, but of course if there is a great story or a strong relationship then every once in a while you’ll see a smaller name covered.
“The shortage of auditors and financial advisers has led to slow growth in new listed companies, says Prapan Charoenprawat, president of Market for Alternative Investment (MAI). Mr Prapan said the market had seen growing demand for companies to list on the bourse because listed firms have successfully raised funds through their issuance of initial public offerings (IPOs) and other financial tools. The market, however, can only accommodate a fraction of them due to limited resources. “It’s not just a lack of financial advisers and auditors, we’ve also fallen short of stock analysts who can cover MAI listings, resulting in a lack of investor confidence,” he said.”

Management Trades – Dec ’15

Notable Transactions

Buy(s) THB 6.3 bn

-KCE, BA, TTCL, RS, SAM, SPALI, MAJOR, WHA, SCC, IFEC, BBL, DCORP, BLAND, JMART, TU, SOLAR, TVO, NSI, CBG, SUPER, NMG

Sell(s) THB 15.0 bn

-BEC, KCE, SAWD, COL, UNIQ, MAX, AP, SAM, JSP, MAJOR, SRICHA, ITD, BA, TMC, AAV

160104 mgmt_trades

Note: Transactions shown are trades above THB 20 mn

Management Trades 07/12 – 11/12

Notable Transactions

As a quick comment – these past two weeks have seen more management buying across the board than I’ve seen in the past 12 months, however it still is relatively small in total value terms

Buy(s) THB 347 mn

  • BA – And he continues to buy and buy and buy
  • NSI – It’s not often you seen management buying back shares in an insurance co (ex-BLA that is)

Sell(s) THB 926 mn

  • COL – Effectively a share restructuring by the major shareholder

151214 mgmt_trades

Stocks in the news (aqua, atp30, bmcl, chow, col, epg, ilink, ktc, malee, ndr, pstc, siri, sricha, svoa, syntec, tasco, the, trc, tsr, tta) 17.11.15

AQUA
AQUA reported 3Q15 net profit of Bt69.61mn (+108.16%). 9M15 net profit was Bt221.96mn (+114.74%) backed by a growth in sales of electricity, warehouses, and ads. (Khao Hoon, 17/11/15)

ATP30
ATP30 has three new customers. It will supply 30 cars that will contribute revenue from the beginning of 2016. It reported 3Q15 net profit of Bt2mn. 9M15 revenue grew 14.81%. It is confident 2015 revenue will reach Bt270mn (+15%). (Khao Hoon, 17/11/15)

BMCL
BMCL reported 3Q15 net loss of Bt148.18mn (-7%). Ridership rose to 300,000, raising revenue from fares by 9.66% while commercial development revenue rose 6%. (Khao Hoon, 17/11/15)
Comment: CK has decided to merge BECL and BMCL they need the clean balance sheet of BECL to finance all of BMCL’s future growth

CHOW
CHOW reported 3Q15 net profit of Bt36.27mn backed by implementing cost control, revenue from power business and FX gain. (Thun Hoon, 17/11/15)
Comment: We do wonder at what point will CHOW begin to recognise its expansion into Japan

COL
COL expects 2016 revenue to grow 15% from Bt10bn this year. It plans to switch online sales to market place. It has budgeted Bt1bn to broaden its market at home and abroad. (Khao Hoon, 17/11/15)
Comment: A switch from online sales to market place? Wait isn’t this an ecommerce business? I have often thought aloud that for this company to be the equivalent of, say, Amazon, a change in management and mind set would be needed.

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aqua, atp30, bmcl, chow, col, epg, ilink, ktc, malee, ndr, pstc, siri, sricha, svoa, syntec, tasco, the, trc, tsr, tta) 17.11.15

Management Trades 05/10 – 09/10

Notable Transactions

Buy(s)  THB 588 mn

  • RS – And he keeps buying and buying and buying
  • MTI – The 4th largest shareholder and family member has decided to buy more shares doubling his stake to 4.9% in the company.
  • AJ – Looks like a share swap between the shareholders
  • COL – The founder/CEO has decided must’ve thought that the price was too cheap @ 36 baht, he effectively marked the low for the company’s stock this year.
  • SC – Except for a period during 1Q13, this stock price hasn’t really performed compared to its peers, thus interesting to see management/directors buying some THB 25 mn worth of shares

Sell(s) THB 1.2 bn

  • BEC – Ohhh a HUGE sale by the owners, THB 1 bn here
  • CSS – Now why would the chairman/ceo sell a stake at these levels? News and rumours had led investors to believe that CSS will be one of the few companies to benefit from the 4G towers
  • AJ – see above

151012 mgmt_trades