Tag Archives: ssi

Stocks in the news (global, kce, ktc, major, mint, nok, plat, ptt, smg, sprc, ssi, tsth) 17.02.16

GLOBAL’s 2015 net profits grow 20% from last year’s Bt701mn, driven by numerous orders. It targets 2016 revenue to grow 10%. A plan to invest in Myanmar will be finalized within 1H16 (Thun Hoon, 17/2/16)
Comment: And yet they still have one of the worst inventory turnover’s I’ve seen…

KCE’s 2015 net profit was Bt2.24bn (+6.2% YoY) with sales growth of 10.3% to Bt12bn. 4Q15 net profit was Bt630mn, hitting a new high. (Khao Hoon, 17/2/16)
Comment: No surprise if you’ve been following this company for the past few years..

KTC expects to see 2016 financial performance to be in line with 2015. NPL is expected to reduce to 2.1%. It plans to do business aggressively to boost market shares. (Khao Hoon, 17/2/16)
Comment: We’ve said this since last year, the issue for KTC now is no longer operational, its sales, growing revenue and I doubt that they’ll be able to do more than 2x the industry growth rate unless they shift into other products.

MAJOR looks more to non-film revenue – MAJOR will renovate some of its cinemas nationwide in a bid to achieve almost 12% revenue growth from group bookings and events. It expects 11.8% growth in group bookings to Bt190mn this year. It believes this business has great potential despite contributing only a small proportion of total ticket sales. (Bangkok Post, 17/02/16)
Comment: I’ve always liked this company, perhaps for the first time in a while it may be time to relook at it if they can monetise their assets better..

Continue reading Stocks in the news (global, kce, ktc, major, mint, nok, plat, ptt, smg, sprc, ssi, tsth) 17.02.16

Stocks in the news (bcp, dtac, ecl, gfpt, ktis, mfec, oto, sappe, seafco, siam, spali, ssi, tmb, twpc) 06.10.15

BCP expects earnings to be better than peers after it sold a futures contract for high quality fuel oil in 2Q15. This minimizes the impact from weakening refinery margin. It expects its solar farm to contribute Bt700mn net profit/quarter. (Thun Hoon, 06/10/15)
Comment: The combination of a high margins and the expansion into renewables have resulted in this stock price not dropping along with other companies in the energy sector
DTAC plans to offer Payment Gateway service. It expects 2015 revenue of Bt3.5bn (+25%YoY). It plans to improve services to make them easier to use. It targets 30% revenue growth in 2016. It plans to introduce E-Wallet in November. (Khao Hoon, 06/10/15)
ECL plans to do a M&A. It plans to expand its logistics business, as well as car and truck rentals. It expects to do a JV with PFS (stake not less than 25%), hoping this will make it a leader in the leasing business. It expects 3Q15 earnings to be good backed by a JV. 2015 revenue is expected to grow 30%. (Thun Hoon, 06/10/15)
GFPT expects 3Q15 earnings to recover backed by seasonality and increasing chicken price because of lower supply from the bird flu in US and Europe. It expects chicken price of Bt39-40/kg. (Thun Hoon, 06/10/15)
Comment: Still the best chicken company around

Continue reading Stocks in the news (bcp, dtac, ecl, gfpt, ktis, mfec, oto, sappe, seafco, siam, spali, ssi, tmb, twpc) 06.10.15

Stocks in the news (asimar, bmcl, color, cpall, global, intuch, ps, malee, mint, npp, nusa, scn, ssi, stanly, tfd) 05.10.15

ASIMAR expects to bid for a Bt1bn ship building contract. It plans to increase capacity by set up a third floating dock. It expects 3Q15 earnings to be good aided by transfers. (Thun Hoon, 05/10/15)

BMCL expects growth in 3Q15 earnings backed by increasing passengers. It expects 300,000 passengers/day. It expects to show a net profit in 2016 after the MRT Purple Line begins contributing revenue in 4Q15. (Thun Hoon, 05/10/15)
Comment: The moment that BMCL can expand its lines from its existing ~20km to just even 30km then it’ll finally become a profitable company.

COLOR expects 2015 revenue to mark a record high thanks to high demand and lower oil price. It expects 5% growth in 2015 revenue. It plans to increase exports to comprise 20% from 18- 19% now. (Thun Hoon, 05/10/15)

CPALL expects 2H15 earnings to be better aided by a marketing campaign, recovery in purchasing power, and seasonality. (Khao Hoon, 05/10/15)
Comment: Again the story here is purely if and/or when they’ll sell their stake in MAKRO to the market.

Continue reading Stocks in the news (asimar, bmcl, color, cpall, global, intuch, ps, malee, mint, npp, nusa, scn, ssi, stanly, tfd) 05.10.15

Stocks in the news (ap, brr, bwg, emc, epco, ilink, kc, major, pps, sppt, ssi, tpipl, uwc, win) 22.09.15

AP expects 2H15 backlog of Bt14.47bn, of which Bt8.47bn is expected to be booked this year. It expects 2015 revenue of Bt25.3bn as it has achieved Bt20.9mn. (Khao  Hoon, 22/09/15)
BRR plans to issue a Bt2bn 2-year debenture. It expects to use the cash from this to increase capacity to 23,000 tons/day. (Khao Hoon, 22/09/15)
Comment: Every company should be issuing debentures to take advantage of this low interest rate environment. 
BWG expects M&A to be finalized soon. It is ready for new machinery for the waste power plant which is expected to supply electricity next year. It expects 2H15 earnings to be good on the back of high demand. It expects 2015 revenue to grow 15% as targeted. (Thun Hoon, 22/09/15)
EMC has launched Palmio Amata Nakorn condo which targets workers in Amata industrial estate. It expects to recognize Bt261mn revenue in 4Q15. (Thun Hoon, 22/09/15)
EPCO expects to get a 600MW cooperative solar farm project. It expects a 15MW Japanese solar farm to be finished and supply electricity in 3Q15. It expects 2015 revenue to grow 10% and net profit to grow 15%. (Khao Hoon, 22/09/15)
Comment: EPCO does have quite the professional team targeting renewable projects, no surprise in their ability to win projects

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ap, brr, bwg, emc, epco, ilink, kc, major, pps, sppt, ssi, tpipl, uwc, win) 22.09.15

SSI Halted

Not to fan the flames any further, but SSI has just been halted from trading by the SET.
SSI TB Equity (Sahaviriya Steel  2015-09-21 11-27-29

Official reason? “The company has requested SET to temporarily suspend trading its securities because the firm is in the process of disclosing significant information.”

Unofficial reason? They’re bankrupt!

Reality – A restructuring of debt, the UK facility has been bleeding them dry.

How did they get here?

SSI bought the Teesside Cast Products site from Tata Steel in 2011 in a $469m deal. The Redcar blast furnace is Europe’s second biggest and at full tilt has the capacity to support production of 3.5m tonnes of steel a year.

SSI has since ploughed in at least $600m in investment and working capital into the site but it has struggled financially and racked up a $309.4m (£200m) loss in 2013.

European demand for the metal is still 25 per cent below pre-crisis levels and the slump in global prices has been compounded by cheap Chinese exports, which British steel companies say are a source of unfair competition due to Beijing’s financial support for its domestic sector. But they also complain of a high energy costs, in part down to the UK’s green policies.

“Last weekend when we got to Friday we couldn’t buy enough material to get us through the weekend. We have been living day to day,” he said. Now, he added, “we have key suppliers who have decided they can no longer supply us.” He declined to say how much suppliers were owed but confirmed the bill ran into tens of millions of pounds.

Source: FT

Random Thoughts: 4G, TOT vs AIS Round XXIV, SSI, Floods, Rates

  • 4G!!! From a green light to a red light to back to a green light. News has announced that the NBTC will go ahead with the auction of the 2 telecom licenses on the 900-MhW and that it has been approved by the board, thus 15 Dec looks like a go.
  • AIS being sued by TOT – Wait, again? deja vu? is TOT bankrupt yet again? Is this just a media storm for the government to win votes? Or will they really go after ADVANC properly? If so that could be THB 108 bn that AIS has to pay back. If not, then the dip in the stock price will be another buying opportunity.
  • SSI’s lasting impact –  the Thai press TISCO have confirmed they will need to make more provisions and although not official I expect SCB and KTB will do likewise. According to the local press TISCO’s exposure is Bt 4 Bln, or at least that is what it was when the syndicated loan was issued. Again why doesn’t TISCO just come and state what we all know “We @#$#ed up with that stupid loan to SSI because we wanted to be a premium investment bank, obviously we do not know how to do credit analysis and now have to write off that huge loan which represented 20% of our shareholders equity at the time, BUT we hope to piggy back on the next government policy to drive up our earnings.” So if they do the provision, I’ve read estimates of THB 2bn in the 3Q15, do note thats close to 50% of 2015 projected earnings.
  • Floods floods floods – You would think 4 years after one of the worst floods in the history of Thailand that something would’ve been done. However just these past few days Pattaya flooded after heavy rains due to the weekend tropical depression Vamco. The Meteorological Department warned that heavy rain will continue in the next three days. Five provinces, mostly Eastern Thailand, and Pattaya, were declared flood disaster zones. Oh and Bangkok is sinking, will the governor of Bangkok have anything clever to say this time? Btw impact on hotels/tourism? Short term. As usual.
  • So the Fed – Nothing happened, USD has become weaker, equities, bonds are mixed and the VIX is done to zero. Most commentators are now pointing their fingers towards December, who knows? And frankly who cares? It’s not if/when they hike, its more of the rate of the hike…then again what if they lower rates in the future? Impossible? Look at Switzerland, Germany and Japan.
  • The BOT – Not to be left out, earlier in the week the BOT decided to keep rates steady @ 1.5%. They now state they expect GDP growth below 3% this year and are looking forward and hoping for greener pastures for inflation and economic growth next year. So what? If oil prices rally back up and government infrastructure spending actually kicks off,  then don’t be surprised to see inflation pick up and interest rates go higher in 2H16. If not then expect lower interest rates for a while. Fun times.

Random Thoughts: Discussion w/ the Smartest Men in Thailand

As a hat tip to Byron Wien’s annual opinion piece on his discussion with the Smartest Man in Europe, here’s my amateurish attempt. Every week I try to meet people either in the industry or outside the industry to just share thoughts on the developments in Thailand, the region, the world and w/o naming any names for obvious reasons here are some insights that I can share.
  • Why do people love property more over stocks? Is it because its tangible? Perhaps it helps that your condo or house doesn’t have its value shown on a screen with second. So why not look at stocks in the same way as property? i.e. Find a good location/business, understand the key drivers for that location/business, buy at an undervalued price relative to these elements, close your eyes and open them again in 5-10 years?  Ah because as humans we inherently want to know what the value of something is immediately, plus the leverage we can get in Thailand is incredible, 10% down, first 3 years are close to 0% interest payment, and they say the stock market is a gamble…
  • It’s the economy stupid – has Thailand reached its peak in terms of economy growth potential? Some say yes others say no, high household debt, an aging population work against the long term story, but the potential of the growing economies in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar are still a positive for Thai co’s to expand.
  • NPL’s – Is there something negative simmering on the balance sheets of the banks? If only KBANK has stated that NPL’s may hit ~2.8% of them by the end of this year, can we really believe that KTB’s NPL’s are only 2%? Or SCB’s for that matter? Or perhaps they have been clever in provisioning for these potential risks.
  • Speaking of NPL’s – SSI & TISCO – SSI engaged in one rather adventurous M&A deal years ago, but still can’t make $ and has had a negative EBITDA ever since, Tisco has given them a loan for this, close to 25% of it’s own equity value, when will the proverbial shit hit the fan? Or is the BoT going to allow them to categorise the loans to SSI as however they please when infact it should be an NPL?
  • Telco’s – 4G has been announced to occur by the 11th November, rumours have it that the government is pushing for a 4th telco operator to join, now who could do this? loxely, jas, samart, are names mentioned, but why would anyone want to?
  • Digital Economy – The next solar craze? Government seems adament to be pushing these projects through, who will the winners be who will the losers be? Still many questions but something to look at in the near future
  • Tonnes of Chinese Visitors – who really benefits? Tour operators, bus owners? But which listed co other than AOT and AAV?
  • Bangkok is sinking – nothing new, we’ve known that for years, shouldn’t the government shift all civil servants to Saraburi? Or further up North/South? Maybe the Bangkok governor was correct in saying that we should all move to the mountains, have khao yai property prices reflected this yet? Or will Chiang Mai become the burgeoning growth center for the country over the coming decades?
  • Investor Relations quality in Thailand – How does the quality of IR in Thailand compare to that of the rest of the region? Quite highly actually, even compared to the rest of the world, the quality of the presentations you find in Thailand are top notch, the only thing generally lacking is that the majority of Thai Co’s still don’t see the value in Investor Relation’s personnel. Regionally I think the Philippines is the leader for IR.
  • The Government – Likely that they’ll stick to their timeline of 3Q16 as they’ve come to the realisation that running a country is their best forte, thus does this mean we’ll see all the infrastructure budgets approved by then? Other than the silly submarine, there is a lot of $ a stake here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it all go through for reasons that I shouldn’t write.

Stocks in the news (ajp, brr, ccp, ktis, ncl, ratch, sgp, ssi, stpi, synex, tcc, top, tta, uv) 25.05.15

Targets 2015 revenue of Bt750mn backed by strong fundamental. It plans to restructure business by focusing on IT business, event organization and alternative energy. (Khao Hoon, 25/05/15)

2015 revenue expected to grow 50% from 2014’s Bt241mn aided by increasing electricity sales and sugar orders. Its 9.9MW power plant is operating and it plans to invest in a biomass power plant. (Thun Hoon, 25/05/15)
Comment: Its the traditional expansion of any sugar company in Thailand, however with the brazilian currency being hammered their sugar exports are causing global sugar prices to decrease, this isn’t a good omen for any thai sugar plant

CCP expanding production capacity for concrete sleeper for infrastructure project worth Bt1.99trn. Management plans to set up a subsidiary to invest in new machines. 2Q15 profit is expected to jump from transfers and new jobs. (Thun Hoon, 25/05/15)

Expects growth in 2015 profit and believes that the sugar price will stand at 14.8 cents/pound this year. Its 50MW biomass power plant is expected to start up in 2Q15 and the other is expected to startup in 4Q15. (Khao Hoon, 25/05/15)
Comment: See BRR

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ajp, brr, ccp, ktis, ncl, ratch, sgp, ssi, stpi, synex, tcc, top, tta, uv) 25.05.15

Stocks in the news (ajd, bbl, dtac, ecf, jsp, ptg, ssi, stec, tip, tta) 02.12.14

SP still not lifted— The SET is keeping AJD tagged SP, saying it was not satisfied with AJD’s explanation about the capital increase via PP. (Kao Hoon, 2/12/14)
Comment: PP’s have been one of the ways speculators use to gain additional shares in a company to “control” the stock price, it is a positive thing that the SEC is forcing AJD to be more specific in its reasons for doing this. Then again if AJD is being genuine (which I doubt) then this is rather annoying for management

Surprise rate cut a challenge for Bangkok Bank (China) – The recent cut in China’s policy interest rate poses a challenge for Bangkok Bank (China), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Thai bank, as it has to balance the efficient management of capital and double-digit loan growth. (Bangkok Post, 2/12/14)

DTAC, CAT to meet on bandwidth transfer – Total Access Communication (DTAC) will hold discussions with CAT Telecom about transferring 25MHz of unused bandwidth from its 1,800MHz concession to the regulator for auction, as part of a memorandum of understanding signed by both parties yesterday. (The Nation, 2/12/14)
Comment: This would be a positive for DTAC as the need the bandwidth to keep up with expansion plans.

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ajd, bbl, dtac, ecf, jsp, ptg, ssi, stec, tip, tta) 02.12.14

Stocks in the news (beauty, ccp, demco, earth, ichi, loxley, lpn, patkl, ptt, rs, solar, ssi, thcom, tsth) 28.08.14

BEAUTY expects growth in 2H14 and maintains 2014 revenue growth target of 30% YoY as purchasing power continues to improve. The company expects to add new branches overseas to increase growth. (Kao Hoon, 28/08/14)
Comment: BEAUTY is definitely the fastest growing cosmetic retailer in Thailand today
CCP expects revenue growth of 10% in 2014, excluding extra income from listing subsidiary SMART on mai. The company expects 2H14 to be better and will be bidding for projects worth Bt500-600mn. It wants to maintain backlog at at least Bt2bn. (Kao Hoon, 28/08/14)
DEMCO gets Bt28bn in new project. It will provide construction services for wind and solar power plants for PDI, EA, and WEH. It expects net profit growth of 100% YoY in 2014-15. It also has extra income of Bt1.6bn. (Kao Hoon, 28/08/14)
Comment: DEMCO is one of the key beneficiaries from the continued investment in alternative energy projects in Thailand + they have their holding in WEH which is expected to IPO sometime in the next year.

Continue reading Stocks in the news (beauty, ccp, demco, earth, ichi, loxley, lpn, patkl, ptt, rs, solar, ssi, thcom, tsth) 28.08.14