Tag Archives: tcap

Stocks in the news (banpu, bcp, hmpro, kbank, ktb, mc, mtls, pjw, sat, scc, tcap) 07.09.16

BANPU’s last day to get BPP IPO reserve. Today is the last day to buy BANPU and get rights to reserve BPP IPO and dividend of Bt0.25. The stock will be posted as “XB-XD” on September 8. (Khao Hoon, 7/9/16)
Comment: Most certainly one way of ensuring your share price stays elevated 
BCP to IPO BCPG this month. It is issuing ~ 590mn IPO shares with initial price estimated at Bt9.80-10.00 per share. (Khao Hoon, 7/9/16)
HMPRO to add branches. It plans to add more branches and set up marketing campaigns and promotions to attract customers. (Thun Hoon, 7/9/16)
KBANK expects 2016 fee income to grow 5-12%, supported by investment banking deals, issuing bonds, M&A, REIT IPOs and extending loans to large corporate customers (expected growth of 4-5%) and SME (expected growth of 5-7%). (Khao Hoon, 7/9/16)
Comment: Looks there is no impact from decrease in transfer fees to KBANK
KTB expects SME recovery in 2H16, aided by government support and loans to construction companies. It targets 2016 loans of Bt25bn. (Thun Hoon, 7/9/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (banpu, bcp, hmpro, kbank, ktb, mc, mtls, pjw, sat, scc, tcap) 07.09.16

Stocks in the news (big, cpf, ilink, jas, richy, scc, siri, tcap, thani, tvt, twz, wha) 22.06.16

BIG is confident that 2016 revenue will surpass its 10% growth target thanks to an expansion of 15-20% in the camera market. It expects to maintain gross margin above 32%. It expects printing from smartphones will support earnings in the future. (Thun Hoon, 22/06/16)
Comment: As evidenced by 1Q numbers, they will far surpass 2015 revenues
CPF expects 2Q16 net profit of Bt4.1bn or growth of 37.5% and revenue of Bt115.68bn, growth of 11.57%, supported by rising meat prices. (Kao Hoon, 22/06/16)
Comment: The turnaround in shrimp prices and effectively every other soft commodity price has helped CPF
Interlink Group was awarded an AOT job to build infrastructure for Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase ll after turning in the lowest bid of Bt1.98bn. ILINK will work on power station and underground electric lines worth Bt1bn. (Kao Hoon, 22/06/16)
Comment: A positive surprise for ILINK, this wasn’t many analysts radars
JAS will pay an interim dividend of Bt0.15/share, XD on July 4 and payment date on July 20. (Thun Hoon, 22/06/16)
RICHY got a good response to two condominium projects with presales at Bt1.6bn at the end of 2Q16. This will lift its backlog to over Bt2bn. It is confident that 2016 revenue will reach Bt1bn as planned. (Thun Hoon, 22/06/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (big, cpf, ilink, jas, richy, scc, siri, tcap, thani, tvt, twz, wha) 22.06.16

Stocks in the news (ba, com7, ea, jmt, ocean, ptt, ratch, sappe, sf, siri, tcap, tmt, tvd, xo) 20.06.16

BA expects 2016 revenue and net profit to mark a record high aided by increasing flights, opening new routes and lower oil price. It is talking to four airlines partner about code sharing and expects to expand to 25 airlines in 2017. It plans to cooperate with Bangkok Hospital to provide ambulance flights this year. (Thun Hoon, 20/06/16)
Comment: Thai Airways, Nok Air, have a look at this management team and learn how to run an airline business properly
COM7 expects 2H16 earnings to be good driven by TRUE shops and iPhone7. It expects 2016 revenue to reach Bt17bn backed by higher sales and revenue contribution from management services. (Thun Hoon, 20/06/16)
Comment: The relationship with True was a positive surprise. Iphone 7 launch in a couple of months, earnings should be rather steady for this company for the next 9 months.
EA says solar farm at Phitsanulok supplies more than 693,000units of electricity. Its capacity is 278MW. It expects 126MW wind power to operate in 3Q16. (Khao Hoon, 20/06/16)
JMT expects to show net profit in 2Q16 from 1Q16 net loss of Bt15mn after extending the booking period to 10 years for acquiring debt. It plans to acquire Bt20bn bad debt from financial institutions. It expects this to boost 2016 revenue by 15%. It plans to expand to Laos and Vietnam. It plans to offer nano-finance in Myanmar in 2017. (Thun Hoon, 20/06/16)
Comment: GL part 2? JMART as a group already has a presence there so entry into that country isn’t an issue 

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ba, com7, ea, jmt, ocean, ptt, ratch, sappe, sf, siri, tcap, tmt, tvd, xo) 20.06.16

Stocks in the news (advanc, arrow, beauty, cwt, dcorp, k, iec, pf, pm, ptl, samco, sgp, tcap, tsr) 28.03.16

Partnership may decide if AIS joins 4G auction — The uncertain status of a partnership agreement between TOT Plc and Advanced Info Service (AIS) may put the latter under increasing pressure to join the renewed auction for the 900-megahertz spectrum. (Bangkok Post, 28/3/16)

ARROW expects 1Q16 earnings to be good on the back of recovering in construction and its active strategy. It expects 2Q16 earnings to be better than last year after its backlog reach a record high. (Thun Hoon, 28/03/16)
Comment: And they continue to grow and grow and grow

BEAUTY expects 2016 earnings to mark a record high. It targets revenue of Bt2.1bn (20% growth). It plans to expand its business by supplying its products via 7-eleven and opening new branches at home and abroad. It plans to hold a roadshow at Japan in mid-2016. (Khao Hoon, 28/03/16)
Comment: With growth slowing (but still great nonetheless) will investors decide this company isn’t worth its 30x PE anymore?

CWT expects 2016 revenue to achieve Bt2bn (20% growth) aided by Bt1.5bn backlog, revenue from teak exports of Bt400mn and automotive leather orders from abroad. It is budgeting Bt800mn to invest in power plants. (ASTV, 28/03/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (advanc, arrow, beauty, cwt, dcorp, k, iec, pf, pm, ptl, samco, sgp, tcap, tsr) 28.03.16

Random Thoughts: Humour, airlines, TCAP, politics, par value?


Would you believe it if I said that Thailand is the second best performing market in Asia this year? Nearly +4.5% in USD termsstockmarket_image



Let’s start with Nok Airways, it appears that ever since its ludicrously expensive IPO nok no one has been a believer in Nok Airways, perhaps its the way that they put a silly cartoon image on the front of their planes nok. Or perhaps its the fact that this company entered into an industry that is not only incredibly competitive but well known for having one of the worst return on investments and that unless you have the balance sheet, management capability, and ability to source traffic and network. And that even with all you are still effectively screwed. Now there are several issues at play with the company all of which are fairly public, their financial performance is crap (loss since 2014, negative FCF, ), pilots are now leaving in droves b/c of safety standards and one would expect for bookings to decline tremendously. Will someone buy them? What’s the point? Perhaps if it was offered for 1 cent and a 95% haircut on the debt then you may see Tony Fernandes swoop in as he did with  AirAsia  but there is no real tangible value here and if I was AirAsia, Bangkok Airways, (not Thai Airways b/c they own 40% of the company, here comes another write off!)  I would be toasting the loss of a competitor.

Thai Airways & AirAsia

Thai Airways stock price  has been on a huge run in the past week thaiairwaysthanks to some clever reporting  that Somkid raised the idea that Thai Airways should work with AirAsia through a share purchase (Bangkok Post). AS IF THIS WAS EVER POSSIBLE! But the market believed it, until the news came out that this was not not on the cards (Bangkok Post) and I had multiple messages about why weren’t we purchasing Thai Airways…I will whenever they recap until then I’d rather believe that pigs can fly.


It’s been in the news since December ’15 that Bank of Nova Scotia has been planning to sell their 49% stake in TCAP.tcap

Latest events suggest that there are two buyers lined up, basically Japan and China (
Bangkok Post). Traditionally we normally heard rumours that Malaysian Banks were interested in expanding here and they were typically the parties willing to pay high multiples of BV. But with TCAP’s relatively smaller customer base, loan book etc etc and to compound this the fact that the world isn’t doing well either, it isn’t quite the attractive proposition as other entities in the past. In any case if you believe in the foolishness of buyers don’t be surprised to see a deal happen @ 2x P/BV.


Well the draft charter has been in the news, Yingluck has invited reporters to visit her garden and Thaksin has allowed himself to be interviewed in Singapore. (I do wonder how long it will be before BEC makes a drama similar to this) And in the past week’s Economist there was a piece on Thailand (Economist) I’ll let you read the article in its entirety but it did end the following “…that Thailand’s self-chosen leaders have no real strategy at all. “ Which is rubbish they do, protect the status quo, protect their positions, ensure no one can have full control of parliament and other things which I can’t mention unless I want to be invited for attitude adjustment.

Par Value

One of the easiest ways in this country to make one’s stock price go up is to decrease its par value/a stock split/par split. Why? Basic finance principles imply that this should have no impact upon the valuation of a business, in reality animal spirits are different….So the SET has come out with a new criteria stating that there would be a floor limit for par value set at 50 satang (Bangkok Post). So one should applaud them for the best efforts to limit the number of unscrupulous companies and owners that are just looking for the ability to manipulate their share prices. Of course there is an easy way around this…do a reverse par, wait a few years and then split it again and again….

Stocks in the news (amata, arrow, big, cho, dtac, fvc, gpsc, gunkul, jsp, lpn, ps, siri, synex, tcap, tipco, tvt) 24.02.16

AMATA sets target land sales of 1,000 rai in 2016. It is negotiating with a foreign customer and hopes to finish the deal in 2H16. (Khao Hoon, 24/02/16)
Comment: This implies a 20% revenue growth for AMATA this year.

ARROW is confident that revenue in 2016 will reach Bt1.4bn supported by more order, an increase in market share to 65% and expansion of factory and machinery. (Khao Hoon, 24/02/16)
Comment: What property slowdown? As long as the number of buildings continue to increase then ARROW is in good shape. A consistent grower over the past few years.

BIG reported net profit of Bt459mn, growth of 235%, on a gain in market share to over 50% and total revenue of Bt1.62bn. It targets revenue growth of no less than 10%, supported by expanding to high-end customers. It will pay a dividend of Bt0.6/share, XD on April 29. (Khao Hoon, 24/02/16)
Comment: I’ll be reading their notes to the financial statements w/ a lot of questions…

CHO reported profit in 2015 of Bt35mn, less than last year. This was due to a fall in total revenue and impact from the cancellation of the NGV bus. The board approved a stock dividend in the ratio 10 old shares for 1 new share, XD on April 27. It targets revenue growth of 5-10% in 2016. (Khao Hoon, 24/02/16)
Comment: Stock divvy’s are never liked by this market…

Continue reading Stocks in the news (amata, arrow, big, cho, dtac, fvc, gpsc, gunkul, jsp, lpn, ps, siri, synex, tcap, tipco, tvt) 24.02.16

Stocks in the news (aot, bigc, bjc, eastw, fsmart, kkc, ktc, lit, mint, planb, sccc, smpc, snc, svi, tcap, tnh, top, trc) 15.02.16

AOT to report 1QFY16 today, profit estimated at Bt4.48bn, growing 20% supported by an 11% rise in passengers to 28.9 million. It expects good earnings in 2Q16. It expects profit in FY2016 of Bt18.5bn based on the ATTA estimate of 13% growth in passenger flow-through in 2016. (Khao Hoon, 15/2/15)
Comment: It should be rather incredible #’s coming out of AOT..yet again
Berli Jucker Plc (BJC) to buy the 58.56% stake in Big C from France-based Casino Group. TCC Group led by billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi has assigned subsidiary BJC to make the purchase, borrowing Bt220bn to finance the acquisition. (Bangkok Post, 13/2/15)
Comment: We are curious to see how shareholders of BJC react to this given that they had initially rejected Metro Vietnam at BJC’s first attempt
EASTW reported net profit of Bt1.58bn, growth of 18.79%. It reported revenue from sales and services of Bt4.36bn, up 2.94%, on an improvement in the economy. (Khao Hoon, 15/2/15)
Comment: Scale scale scale
FSMART reported net profit of Bt272mn, 77% growth. It reported total revenue of Bt1.68bn, up 45%. The board approved a full year dividend of Bt0.15; the, interim dividend of Bt0.02 will be paid in 2H16. (Khao Hoon, 15/2/15)
Comment: Just incredible #’s continuing to come out of FSMART!

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, bigc, bjc, eastw, fsmart, kkc, ktc, lit, mint, planb, sccc, smpc, snc, svi, tcap, tnh, top, trc) 15.02.16

Stocks in the news (aot, arrow, bbl, big, cbg, cpall, ea, gold, ilink, jsp, kcm, kiat, psl, sawad, syntec, tcap, thai, thcom, tog, tmt, true, tse, ttw, wha) 13.08.15

AOT says there is no impact from the Chinese yuan depreciation. Growth in Chinese tourist was 10-14% for eight months. (Post Today, 13/08/15)
Comment: For once, I concur with this government enterprise.

ARROW reported 2Q15 earnings of Bt56mn (+92%YoY). It plans to pay an interim dividend of Bt0.15/share, XD on Aug 21. It targets 2015 revenue growth of 20%. (Khao Hoon, 13/08/15)
Comment: And somehow this little company continues to rack up decent earnings growth inspite of the overall economic situation.

BBL sees Chinese corporations becoming some of its major Vietnam customers after seeing greater direct investment activities by them. It targets 2015 Vietnam loan growth of 14% after it achieving 7-8% in 1H15. (Thun Hoon, 13/08/15)
Comment: Perhaps more of a regional play at the moment, without a doubt the Chinese are the largest investors in Vietnam

BIG reported 2Q15 earnings of Bt70.8mn. It expects revenue and net profit to grow steadily. It plans to launch a marketing campaign to boost sales. It is confident 2015 revenue will achieve its target growth of 10%. (Khao Hoon, 13/08/15)
Comment: Well its a camera retail co, just depends upon how large you believe the market is for them

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aot, arrow, bbl, big, cbg, cpall, ea, gold, ilink, jsp, kcm, kiat, psl, sawad, syntec, tcap, thai, thcom, tog, tmt, true, tse, ttw, wha) 13.08.15

Stocks in the news for the week

Note: Scroll down to see commentary for the past 3 days.

Stocks in the news (amata, arrow, bay, bkd, cbg, ecl, kbs, ldc, pf, ptg, ptt, spali, super, tcap, thai, ttcl, wha) 27.01.15

AMATA plans to invest in industrial estate in Myanmar, in addition to its existing investment in Vietnam to prepare for the inception of AEC. The company will also increase investment in an information technology system to add more value to its IE. The investment plan should be ready soon. (Krungthep Turakit, 27/01/15)
Comment: It’s a natural development for AMATA to have look at Myanmar however I can also say that I’m planning to expand to investments in Myanmar and raise $ even though its still years away.

ARROW expects revenue growth of 20% and margin of 23-25% this year. The company plans to use capex of ~Bt30mn to build a new plant to serve more pipe conduit orders. (Post Today, 27/01/15)

No ‘trading alert’ — Despite a sharp 118% rally in the stock price since the beginning of this year, the SET says it does not meet the criteria for a “Trading Alert” sign, because the volatile share price movement was due to low liquidity. BAY denies the news about de-listing. (Krungthep Turakit, 27/01/15)
Comment: Everyone regrets not having these shares, I do wonder if local institutions (i.e. mutual funds) have benefited given that it traditionally isn’t among the top holdings.

Continue reading Stocks in the news for the week

Some Banks are minting it, others are meh



Banks are always the first to announce their financial performances and here are some quick thoughts:

  • Just look @ BAY’s performance, followed by its corresponding stock price performance, it has just been amazing.
  • The larger banks in general are still continuing to grow, NPL management has been proactive, especially at KBANK.
  • The smaller institutions i.e. KKP the results are well, shit, why? Autos.
  • TMB’s performance came out fantastic because of one-time gains that won’t be replicated in 2015.
  • All in all a decent performance for the sector despite everything that has happened in the past 18 months. I still think finco’s are going to be a winner this year and next as a result of the infrastructure projects.
  • BBL – Stable, unexciting, the same as it has been and will always be.

Source: Bangkok Post