Tag Archives: True

Stocks in the news (advanc, ba, bafs, btw, ccn, csl, fpi, gunkul, ihl, kbank, kbs, kool, mk, pcsgh, planb, ptt, synex, thcom, true, twpc, upa) 19.08.16

ADVANC plans to increase 2016 revenue target to accommodate greater revenue from services and a campaign to stimulate sales. It expects the 900MHz license to cut EBITDA margin in 2H16 to an average of 38-39% in the year. It expects maintain its 100% dividend payout. (Thun Hoon, 19/08/16)
Comment: While the dividend payout ratio remains, it will probably followed the trend of DTAC’s i.e. declining
BA is preparing a roadshow in Hong Kong for November. It targets an annual average revenue growth of 10-15%. It has budgeted Bt12bn to expand its airport and buy more airplanes. It expects passenger growth of 20% to more than 1.2mn passengers supported by high season. (Thun Hoon, 19/08/16)
BAFS expects 2H16 to grow on high season. It expects aviation fuel services to increase 8% and expects revenue to grow more than 9% to a new high compared to last year. (Thun Hoon, 19/08/16)
Comment: A great “little” monopoly
BTW will pay an interim dividend of Bt0.27/share or return of 6.46%, payment on Sep 9. It expects 2H16 to be good supported by bids for new jobs. (Thun Hoon, 19/08/16)
CCN plans to bid for jobs of more than Bt200mn. It expects 2016 revenue growth of 20%. It plans to expand to the energy business, closing a deal by the end of 2016. It reported 2Q16 profit growth of 1,009% due to cost management and expects continued growth in 3Q16. (Thun Hoon, 19/08/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (advanc, ba, bafs, btw, ccn, csl, fpi, gunkul, ihl, kbank, kbs, kool, mk, pcsgh, planb, ptt, synex, thcom, true, twpc, upa) 19.08.16

Stocks in the news (aeont, aot, cho, ck, cwt, earth, fpi, hmpro, ktb, tasco, tfg, true) 08.07.16

AEONTS issues debenture of Bt8bn which it will use to refinance and as funding to support its business. It reported 1H16 profit of Bt515.84mn supported by more credit card revenue. (Thun Hoon, 08/07/16)
Comment: Still one of the best operators in town 
AOT has budgeted Bt194bn to develop its six airports over 5-10 years. Once finished, its airports will support 181mn passengers per year. (Kao Hoon, 08/07/16)
Comment: Contractors, materials, security firms will all benefit from this.
CHO will bid in the e-auction for the 489 NGV bus project worth Bt4bn. It expects to know the result this evening. (Kao Hoon, 08/07/16)
CK signed the contract for Xayaburi in Laos worth Bt19.4bn. This will expand its backlog to Bt100bn. (Kao Hoon, 08/07/16)
CWT will bid for renewable energy project. It expects 2016 revenue of Bt1.5bn. It has more jobs to book and is steadily adding new jobs to add to its backlog of Bt1.5bn. (Thun Hoon, 08/07/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (aeont, aot, cho, ck, cwt, earth, fpi, hmpro, ktb, tasco, tfg, true) 08.07.16

Stocks in the news (akr, chg, dcon, ndr, oishi, siri, tpoly, true, tu, tvt) 06.07.16

AKR is bidding for government transformer jobs worth Bt3bn and expects to get 10-15%. It expects to get solar job from EPC worth more than Bt400mn. This will support 2016 revenue to reach Bt2.5bn. It plans to expand to Indonesia and Vietnam. (Thun Hoon, 06/07/16)
CHG expects 2H16 earnings to double supported by high season in 3Q16. It is confident that occupancy rate will be 70-80%. (Thun Hoon, 06/07/16)
DCON expects good earnings in 1H16 supported by more orders. It is confident that 2016 revenue will hit target of Bt1.1bn supported by construction recovery and more demand. (Thun Hoon, 06/07/16)
Comment: Is there a round 2 coming for DCON? I haven’t looked at the name properly since ’13 but if my memory is correct unless they are doing another property project there won’t be another jump in earnings.
NDR got orders from India worth Bt170mn. It expects 2H16 earnings to continue to grow and expects revenue to reach Bt1bn. (Thun Hoon, 06/07/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (akr, chg, dcon, ndr, oishi, siri, tpoly, true, tu, tvt) 06.07.16

Stocks in the news (advanc, asefa, bigc, bjchi, bsm, ck, ea, pf, npp, sci, tluxe, tmi, tpoly, true, tsr, twpc) 18.05.16

ADVANC is now left as the only applicant in the running to take part in the upcoming reauctioning of a 900MHz licence. (The Nation, 18/05/16)
Comment: It should be an uneventful auction…
ASEFA expects 2016 revenue to grow 15-20% on the back of Bt1.7bn backlog. It expects this to cover revenue till next year. It plans to take part in bids. (Khao Hoon, 18/05/16)
BIGC plans big expansion – THE NEW board of directors of Big C Supercenter, controlled by Berli Jucker Group, has approved the plan to allocate Bt5bn-Bt6bn for store expansion in Thailand this year, focusing on “blue ocean” locations, including subordinate and border provinces, and major districts. (The Nation, 18/05/16)
Comment: Thats rather interesting given that the previous management didn’t see any more growth potential in the country..
BJCHI announced 1Q16 earnings of Bt338.7mn (+110%) with Bt2.1bn in revenue, up 40%. It is waiting for bidding results. It expects 2016 revenue to grow not less than 15% as its work on hand is Bt1.7bn. (Thun Hoon, 18/05/16)
BSM expects 2Q16 earnings to recover backed by orders at home and Bt10mn orders from India. It expects 2016 revenue to hit Bt700mn. It expects margin to reach 30%. It expects 2H16 earnings to be better than 1H16. (Thun Hoon, 18/05/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (advanc, asefa, bigc, bjchi, bsm, ck, ea, pf, npp, sci, tluxe, tmi, tpoly, true, tsr, twpc) 18.05.16

True not participating in reauction

So last night True released the following

“With reference to the re-auction of Spectrum Licensing for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) in the Frequency Band of 900MHz to be held by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission on 27th May 2016, True Corporation Public Company Limited (the “Company”) would like to notify that the Board of Directors Meeting No. 4/2559 held on 16 th May 2016 has passed the resolutions that the Company will not participate in the aforesaid re-auction since True Group already has a very comprehensive spectrum portfolio with sufficiently large bandwidth totaling 55 MHz. The Company already obtained an ideal combination of low-band and high-band frequencies for its relative advantage in coverage and capacity respectively. This enables the Company to effectively address all market segments and ecosystems with superior 4G, 3G and 2G networks nationwide”

So what?

  • ADVANC hasn’t officially said that they will participate yet..
  • If they do, well, ADVANC can now effectively bid against itself
  • If they don’t,  the drama that is the thai telco sector shall continue, heads will roll @ NBTC, and this is a a scenario that I’m rooting for although not expecting.

Source: True Plc

Stocks in the news (alt, banpu, gl, ndr, planb, ratch, rs, super, tacc, tasco, tcc, tfg, true, wha, work) 16.05.16

ALT will hold a roadshow in five provinces. It expects to have an IPO selling 250mn shares in late June and list on the SET in 3Q16. (Kao Hoon, 16/5/16)
Comment: The IPO market has been quiet so far this year other than ASN which did well on its first day pop last week it’s been a quiet quiet start to the year.
BANPU is investing in a 78.5MW solar farm in China to support future business growth. (Kao Hoon, 16/5/16)
GL has a five-year plan to grow profit 10X after growing 100% in 1Q16. It is negotiating to acquire three businesses. (Kao Hoon, 16/5/16)
Comment: A former darling and now I don’t know quite understand how to justify its existing valuation. But I’ve been proven wrong many a time over the past decade and a half…
NDR expects 2Q16 earnings will be good supported by the good response to its new product “air lock”. It targets 2016 sales growth of 25% from 2015. It plans to expand its business in Thailand and abroad. The BOI approved its solar roof project. It expects to start operating in 2H16. This will reduce electricity cost by 10%. (Thun Hoon, 16/5/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (alt, banpu, gl, ndr, planb, ratch, rs, super, tacc, tasco, tcc, tfg, true, wha, work) 16.05.16

Stocks in the news (apco, beauty, dna, global, glow, ifec, ivl, kce, ptt, sappe, thcom, tkn, true, xo) 12.05.16

APCO reported profit growth 12.16% in 1Q16 supported by increased sales. It plans to expand its business nationwide. It targets revenue growth of no less than 10% in 2016. (Thun Hoon, 12/5/16)
Comment: They have yet to be able to reach the heights that everyone was expecting 2 years ago
BEAUTY reported 1Q16 net profit of Bt129mn, growth of 70%, supported by more revenue from adding branches, supporting customer demand in Thailand and abroad. (Kao Hoon, 12/5/16)
Comment: And the growth just continues and continues and continues
DNA board approved a budget of Bt4.39mn for its subsidiary “My Network” to acquire 51% of AEK stock. It plans to do an ICT business in Laos. It targets to have AEK be in the top three brands within two years. (Kao Hoon, 12/5/16)
Comment: This company seems to have the funniest dealings…
GLOBAL reported net profit of Bt451mn or growth of 108% due to increasing sales and higher gross profit. It is confident that 2016 revenue will grow no less than 10%. It plans to open 12 new branches, three in June. It plans to invest in Myanmar and Cambodia. (Kao Hoon, 12/5/16)
Comment: Rather surprising turnaround and growth in their 1Q. Is upcountry back?

Continue reading Stocks in the news (apco, beauty, dna, global, glow, ifec, ivl, kce, ptt, sappe, thcom, tkn, true, xo) 12.05.16

Stocks in the news (bay, bjchi, com7, delta, drt, eason, hmpro, kbs, modern, ndr, nwr, pttep, richy, scc, scn, sgp, super, tpch, tpipl, true) 27.04.16

BAY expects auto loans to grow 3% to Bt262bn despite a slowdown in new loans. It is looking for a partner to expand into loans for used cars. (Thun Hoon, 27/04/16)
Comment: I can see BAY actually taking away market share from TCAP in this. 
BJCHI will pay dividend of Bt0.5/share, payment on May 19. It took part in Bt6.5bn in bids, and expects the results to be announced in 2Q16. (Thun Hoon, 27/04/16)
COM7 signed a contract with TRUE to operate 166 True shops in BIGC and Tesco. It expects 2016 revenue to hit Bt17bn with net margin of 3%. (Khao Hoon, 27/04/16)
Comment: New iphone, new macbook, and now a new deal. I’m banging my head against the wall.
DELTA reported 1Q16 earnings of Bt1.25bn (+19%) because of lower sales in embedded power supplies and higher expense. (Khao Hoon, 27/04/16)
Comment: It appears that nearly every electronics manufacturing company in the region will have rather weak growth for the foreseeable future

Continue reading Stocks in the news (bay, bjchi, com7, delta, drt, eason, hmpro, kbs, modern, ndr, nwr, pttep, richy, scc, scn, sgp, super, tpch, tpipl, true) 27.04.16

Random Thoughts: ASEAN, Europe, Panama, a whole lot more…

  • The last 3 weeks have been rather busy with traveling for both personal and work related activities, and yet really nothing happened much in the world, central banks were quiet, perhaps there was some temporary noise out of doha re oil prices but things have been relatively calm so to speak. First quarter numbers have started approaching, with Thai banks showing rather iffy #’s, the smaller ones i.e. tisco and kkp surprised to the upside with lower than expected provisions, but when I hear “Oh yes our NPLs are increasing but it’s ok we have provisioned against it” doesn’t quite inspire the confidence in me that I suppose it’s meant to, anyways to some random thoughts
  • Europe – Flying to brussels was the aim at the end of March but because of the bombing, the flight had to be re-directed to frankfurt and to depart from Paris instead. The mood throughout the country was one of, well, despondence may be the best way to describe. Interestingly the majority of people seemed to be more upset with the Government. If you look at it from their viewpoint taxes are incredibly high, economic growth is tepid at best, the government is finding more ways to tax the citizens and then more immigrants that aren’t able to assimilate are given handouts by the government. Not quite the recipe for a happy populous.
  • ASEAN – During songkran, my analysts and I flew to Malaysia and Singapore to attend broker conferences to meet multiple firms from throughout the region. Dr. Surin – finally got to meet the man and have a quick discussion 1 on 1, its a shame he can’t drive things in Thailand. Malaysia’s SWF Khazanah Nasional impressed me tremendously at a  breakfast meeting, despite the country being home to what I suspect is the dirtiest politics in SE Asia, these guys know what they’re doing and I think they invest quite well. Firm’s in KL? Well if you thought that Thailand had a lot of property companies then you haven’t been to KL, household debt to gdp is far worse than Thailand and yet when you drive from KL center to the airport you see nothing but new condominiums being built. Are there good companies in M’asia? Absolutely I still take the viewpoint that it doesn’t matter where you are in the world you can always find a great idea, names that impressed me (doesn’t mean one should buy) include Time dotcom – I believe the largest ASEAN sub-marine cable co, Karex – the world’s largest oem condom manufacturer, and Inari Amerton – a semi conductor manufacturing co where 50% of it’s business comes from iphones. What about the other countries? Well again there’s a lot, perhaps the 2 name’s I had the most fun learning about was Naga City (hk listed) which runs the largest casino in Cambodia and Double Dragon – a retail/property company in the Philippines that proves retail investors are still incredibly dominant over there. As a quick aside – I love markets where retail investors are the dominant market participants it allows for stocks to reach their fair values (and more!) far faster and it also drives prices down far further than fair value – this volatility provides the best recipe for making a return. Institution dominated markets are boring.
  • Panama Papers & Nepotism- I don’t see anything wrong with people or companies having an offshore company, of course when a politician has one and did NOT declare as required by their tax jurisdiction well then its a different story altogether. What drew my attention recently was this article in the Bangkok Post  where this paragraph “One example could be the 600-million-baht land sale by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, who was then army chief, in 2013, disclosed under his asset declaration when he took office as prime minister, after the May 2014 coup. The transaction was connected to an offshore company in the BVI, linked to Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, the patriarch of the Thai Beverage business group and Thailand’s second richest man, according to Forbes’ 2015 list. In many other circumstances, this story would have scrutinised for unscrupulous gains and juicy details that may have violated the law. But this story has faded into oblivion for the time being. “ caught my eye. I do wonder if the author will be invited for a attitude adjustment (btw military people if you’re reading this, I love you, don’t arrest me). And then there were more articles in the local papers about nepotism (Bangkok Post). I’m not sure why people are surprised, this is rather normal in virtually any society, should it be? Well that’s a discussion for another time.
  • Taxes – The government has decided to lower the tax for the majority of people, then again how many people in Thailand actually pay tax? They state there are some 10 mn tax payers, the last time i saw statistics I clearly remembered that only ~2 mn filed their taxes and ~1 mn actually had salaries high enough to pay. Anyways here are some figures. In theory who benefits? Consumer co’s, 7-11?
  • taxTelco’s – Article 44 came out and spanked the NBTC into setting the next spectrum launch on the 27th May. So DTAC doesn’t look like they’ll participate (even though they could comfortably raise equity and join the party but telenor seems to be far more focused on Myanmar and India for now) AIS should take it unless TRUE decides to raise more capital and dominate the industry, also DTAC announced their earnings on Friday evening (SET) and they look awful but a clever man told me “look at their ARPU for post paid customers it’s the highest in the industry, how much would you pay to take those customers away from DTAC?” Perhaps THB 75 bn isn’t a too much to pay to take 50% of DTAC’s customer base.
  • Larry Fink Chairman’s Letter to Shareholders (Blackrock) Most Chairman letters are rather good for falling asleep to, but at least here theres a decent section “Changes in the Investing Landscape” Not nearly enough attention has been paid to the toll these low rates — and now negative rates — are taking on the ability of investors to save and plan for the future. People need to invest more today to achieve their desired annual retirement income in the future. For example, a 35-year-old looking to generate $48,000 per year in retirement income beginning at age 65 would need to invest $178,000 today in a 5% interest rate environment. In a 2% interest rate environment, however, that individual would need to invest $563,000 (or 3.2 times as much) to achieve the same outcome in retirement. 
  • Now to show the other side to this argument would be the from the wonderful J. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) where he writes ” Simply put, most firms – and especially SMEs – can’t borrow easily at the T-bill rate. They don’t borrow on capital markets. They borrow from banks. And there is a large difference (spread) between the interest rates the banks set and the T-bill rate. Moreover, banks ration. They may refuse to lend to some firms. In other cases, they demand collateral (often real estate).”
  • This blog – Running a regional fund is taking up a lot of my time, thinking about other countries, currencies, industries and companies (which is incredibly fun), compared to before when all I dreamt about was Thailand hence the lower amount of posts on a daily basis. Thus for now it looks like I’ll just do a stocks in the news post and on Friday/Saturdays a long random thought post versus the past when I would just put some of these thoughts up when they popped in my head. Have a great Sunday.

Stocks in the news (ajd, banpu, bbl, ckp, drt, gfpt, mill, qtc, samart, sat, scc, sci, sena, tkn, true, ureka, vpo) 20.04.16

AJD targets top-up machines of 50,000 at the end of this year after yesterday reaching 10,000 machines. It plans to offer more services via its top-up machines in 2H16, such as ordering merchandise from the 7-Eleven catalog, insurance payments, etc. (Khao Hoon, 20/14/16)
Comment: We still have our doubts on their ability to execute, after all the incumbent FSMART is still continuing to dominate the country
BANPU plans to take a step into upstream unconventional gas by acquiring 29.4% stake in the low-cost Chaffee Corners Joint Exploration Agreement (JEA) operation in the northeast section of the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania in US for US$112mn. (SET, Khao Hoon, 20/14/16)
BBL reported 1Q16 net profit of Bt8.31bn from Bt9.40bn in 1Q15, affected by higher provisions. This brought EPS to Bt4.36/share from Bt4.93/share in 1Q15. (Khao Hoon, 20/14/16)
Comment: I do wonder how many more times we shall hear, “it’s ok to have rising NPLs because we have provisioned for them already”
CKP targets capacity of 5,000MW in 2025 from 2,160MW now. It plans to focus on expanding in Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar. Its board approved issuing a Bt10bn debenture, with subscription expected in 2H16. (Khao Hoon, 20/14/16)

Continue reading Stocks in the news (ajd, banpu, bbl, ckp, drt, gfpt, mill, qtc, samart, sat, scc, sci, sena, tkn, true, ureka, vpo) 20.04.16