Another flu virus
So the news is out. Let’s just go straight to the hotel stocks.
Thoughts:
- This too shall pass. It’ll probably end up being another good trade/buying opportunity.
- Difference is that the base of tourism numbers is higher compared to 2015
- If the epidemic worsens…losing money on a hotel stock will be the last of your issues…
What happened during the last flu epidemic?
Bo Stenberg
And AOT….
Pon
Ahhh yes.
BORISLAV ISAKOVIC
Yeah AOT is very pricey already,from my point of view!
Bo Stenberg
The good news is: if you want to avoid traffic and take advantage of bountiful parking (all of a sudden) at CNX/Chiang Mai during “high season,” nooooo problem.
don
Hi Pon, good observations, thanks.
I am thinking of a quick flip in and out of the CRC IPO.
Do you see the potential for the effects of this flu situatin having a negative effect on sentiment for the IPO?
Tks Don.
Pon
No.
don mcmahon
thank you ! d.
BORISLAV ISAKOVIC
I think it will have negative impact for CRC IPO.I had right for buy 5000 CRC on IPO,but will not exercise my right.We do not know even price before ,cos. 40-43 BHT is a big difference .
don mcmahon
would you share – how did you get ‘rights’ to subscribe to this IPO? tks, Don.
BORISLAV ISAKOVIC
My rights are from BLS Securities with which I am trading on SET.Every trader have right to subscribe to any IPO in which BBL with BLS sec. is Financial Advisor.How much to subscribe depends of how much you trade.
don
Tks ! Don.
don
one alwasy assumes that the people behnd this IPO would not want to lose face, by overpricing it. That said, you might be interested in this: Smartkarma: ” In our initiation note, we stated that that Central Retail’s fundamentals are less than inspiring and characterised by pressure on the top-line and bottom-line along with low returns. Based on our assertion that the IPO needs to be priced at a discount to the sector to reflect the fundamentals, we would participate at most at the low-end of the IPO price range.” i was planning on subscribing for several hundred thousand shares, for a quick flip.. My broker says wait and buy if the stock weakens to below the IPO price. I’m gonna follow his advice. cant go wrong staying in cash, eh?
BORISLAV ISAKOVIC
You can compare IPO prices on all listed companies in Thailand in a last 5 years and You can see that price of more than 90% are now much less.Many stocks 40-80% less.This is huge IPO and can compare maybe with AWC which was listed recently.Company is about IPO price or bellow and from my point of view it will slip far more.Your broker advice You well,but I will not recommend anyone to be much exposed in this stock anyway.Thai stock market is now dangerous for retail investors and need to be savvy.
don
thanks. I’ll avoid this IPO. I never invest in equities, other than flipped very selectively chosen IPO/RI’s . i did well in 2019 with the SUPEREIF IPO and the TMB. rights issue. I will now reinvest – back into where my non-cash portfolio is – utility funds, eg egatif, gif, dif. any comments on that strategy?
Pon
However if you do an exercise you’ll see except for the past 2 years that every IPO had a great pop in the first hour/day/week.
So it does depend on the name/business/industry/market sentiment.
BORISLAV ISAKOVIC
Not true .Not every IPO.Most before yes,but not all.Now sentiment is changing .Big IPO AWC ,similar to this one had pretty bad debut .Now price is around IPO price or lower with P/E -227 ???Is it normal???Big chance to tumble a lot,right?What P/E we can expect of this IPO?What P/E in a 6 month,year?
don
the CRG pricing should come in with a PE of 30ish. If I trade on an IPO or rights issue, it is with a horizon of days or weeks, as Pon suggests. So I do not care what happens after that. Examples of what Pon is referring to and what I made profits on are: SUPEREIF bgt at 10baht sold at 11.50 and 12.50. DIF bgt under the rights. issue at 15+ sold half at 16+ Bgt TMB warrants at .03, and the stock at 1.40 no brainer. sold at 1.48 and 1.58. plus got the first div as a bonus. I don’t like dividends, as they attract tax and i cannot use the tax credits, . Income distributions, for the moment are tax free. If you live here and you are spending Thai currency; where else can you get an investment that is 110% of book value. and pays 5-6% tax free annually, in quarterly distributions? you do have to exercise caution re: the licence expiry dates for most of these funds.
BORISLAV ISAKOVIC
Well,Don,You can do with Your money whatever You want.
Good Luck!
don
thanks! as I think I said already, I will not trade this one. I stayed out of AWC, thanks to Pons comments. Preservation of capital is my primary objective.
I have been fortunate wirh my picks in 2019.
safe investing in 2020.
Pon
I think I’ve only been right 50% of the time..so throw a wind of a caution to what I say…
don
I akways do my onw due dilligence. Your valuable input is very often the starting point. Thank you for your generousity in sharing news/commentsd! D.
don
AWC was a rip-off. Assets were transferred from the family companies at excessive valuations, providing them with cap. gains and the punters are left with the bill. there is no such thing as transparency here. Note the stock price was supported in the short term whilst those in the know got out. some great quotes from a remarkable book, can be found at .