Byron Wien’s September 2018 Commentary
Anddd his latest commentary is out, here are some snippets and a link to the rest of the article:
- As for the 2020 Presidential election, many attending thought Donald Trump would have a second term.
- True, the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet and the European Central Bank was talking about “tapering,” but the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China were still in an expansionary mode and, despite the Federal Reserve having raised short-term rates over the past year, the federal funds rate was still relatively low and real rates were negative. In the past twelve months, both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank balance sheets have expanded almost 8%. In Europe, sovereign interest rates were still negative. In fact, 29% of the bonds in the world had negative nominal interest rates.
- The Chinese are establishing military bases on offshore islands and throughout Asia and will soon dominate the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea putting them in a position to influence world trade. As China’s military increases its power, it could become a political factor within the country
- The private equity investors attending argued that there were still attractive prospects out there and that they expected to maintain historic returns going forward. There is a recognition, however, that the ten-baggers of yesteryear are almost impossible to find.
Source: Blackstone
Peter
good points!
to 1.) president trump: many seem to be outraged as his antics, but it seems that nobody can or will really stop him. and the us economy seems to be running well. so it’s wouldn’t be that surprising if he would be elected for a second term – unless anything changes dramatically and suddenly , which one never knows with trump..
to 2.) yes, interest rates worldwide are still low (too low for the average small investor to really obtain big gains) and i guess there are still good chances for high dividend yield-stocks of profitable and well-run companies. also, in case that the usa – china trade spat would hurt the us economy maybe the fed would also call off any planned interest rate rises in the near future?