Latest thoughts from our resident Queen Chartist, Ploy.

Surely, everyone here is so sick and paranoid with the flood news, but excited with the rapid rise in the SET.

You may not like it, but the sunny days in the Thai stock market may not last long. Here, I have the chart of the SET with its peak cycle.

From the chart, the length between one peak to the other is X days (approx. 70-73 days), and each peak is reached after the SET has breached above the Y-resistance. Therefore, you can see that the recent rebound in the SET ‘may’ continue until mid November, when the X-day cycle will end, and along the way, the SET has to first break out above the Y-resistance, which is 1,030-1,035. 

For those who trade the SET50 Index Futures, you may have enjoyed going Long for quite some times. The chart shows that the recent rebound in the SET50 Index Futures is, again, only short-term. I don’t use the famous Elliot’s Wave to find any pattern in the stock prices; instead, I use ARC – Analysis of Repeating Cycle. In ARC, we believe that each stock has its own pattern, characteristics, and behaviors, and to analyze the stock from its past behaviors is more accurate than using any specific pattern to analyze various stocks.

Here in the SET50 Index Futures, I found that it may be forming the repeating 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 cycle. The 7^th wave will be canceled if it can breach above the Y-resistance. The 7^th wave will be confirmed once the SET50 Index Futures falls, and the 8^th wave is more likely if the SET50 Index Futures falls below the 6^th wave. So, enjoy going Long, but stay cautious as we are trading at the hi-risk-hi-return juncture.

The last chart is the SET, plotted with the Brent oil price. The Brent oil price is testing its key barriers at 116 and 119. And, if it starts falling from the barriers, the downside gap is quite large. You can see from the chart that each ‘low’ points in the Brent oil price is correlated with the ‘low’ point in the SET. Mind that, this correlation may be not the causation. In the Technical Analysis, we may look at other indicators to find the timing/warning point.