Latest thoughts from Ploy! She’s looking closely at the USD/THB rates seeing how its driving the SET Index and has updated her viewpoint on TOP and her latest pick BANPU!

My opinion on the SET is relatively unchanged.

If you have followed my comments here for a while, you may have noticed by now that I don’t change the charts or outlook so often unless there is any clear signal popping up. Again, as shown below, I still use the same chart and pattern to track the US dollar index. Like I said last time, the rebound in the US dollar index around the red X-support is not a threat until it breaches above 79.54 and 80.50. Therefore, despite yesterday’s sharp rise, I still maintain my view that the US dollar index may not cause a sharp fall in the SET during this week unless it reaches 79.54.

However, I feel a bit worried when I look back at the Baht/Dollar exchange rate. The Baht/Dollar exchange rate seems to be forming a new rising channel (the blue, dotted lines), with its touching the blue support line last Thursday. The signal will be confirmed on the rate’s breakout above 31.03-31.08. The weakening Baht will put a threat in the SET and may translate that the SET may be less likely to head any higher.

Another chart that is also a negative outlook is the SET versus US dollar index. The SET is now at the overbought resistance, relative to the US dollar index. We must keep eyes on this resistance and see whether the SET can make a clear breakout above this resistance. If not, the SET’s backing down sharply from this resistance may signal a sharp fall in the SET itself.

On looking at the SET itself, the index is stalling at the barrier at 1,122, which also reflects the negative impact from the rising US dollar index. We have to wait and see whether the SET can make a successful breakout above this barrier. On breakout, it may head up to test its previous High at 1,148.28 and 1,155. The support in the SET is now at 1,111 and 1,108-1,107.

The Dow Jones breached above last week’s given barrier at 12,876, and has backed down since. But, when we look at the weekly chart of the Dow Jones, there may be a chance that the index may continue to zigzag up in medium term and towards 13,688-13,700. However, this view may be cancelled on the index’s falling below the stoploss signal at 12,700, which was given last week as well.

If you recall, on the 31^st of October, 2011, I mentioned my Top Picked stock: TOP.

For reference: http://www.thaicapitalist.com/2011/10/weekly-charts-set-brent-thbusd/#more-589

Some of my clients bought TOP then, and the stock has not yet failed us, especially since it has breached above the red resistance line in the chart below. My target for TOP is 76-77, but it will be cancelled on the stock’s falling below 68.50, which can also be used as a stoploss line for those who are trading TOP.

 

One stock I especially like at the moment is BANPU. Don’t turn your face away in disgust now!!

BANPU was one of the worst performers last year, but now it is coming back. I am keeping my fingers crossed while it is testing the barrier at 640 now. If it can successfully breach above 640, it may be able to make wonderful comeback, with short-term target at 685-686. The risk is that, the stoploss line is still unclear and may be as low as 608. I will keep you updated on the stoploss line.

Thanks again Ploy! You can contact her directly @ ploy@thaicapitalist.com