As the political merrygoround (with Abhisit now coming out and stating that there have to be reforms to ensure that losers in an election can still block a winning party) continues there are several potential key dates that are coming up, let’s go through them all.

• Friday 2 May – The Thawil case – Yingluck has to submit her defence
• Friday 2 May to Sat 10 May – Senate Meeting (yes they work on weekends) – They need to spend a week to decide on an appointment of one position for the Administrative Court and one for the NACC
• 8 May or 13 May – Rice Case – The NACC has said that they will make a decision on the rice case against Yingluck on these days.
• 20 July – Election – The EC has agreed in principal – the Democrats may finally be democratic and join in the election (and most likely lose)

Potential market scenarios?

• Yingluck out – market up, election goes ahead – sell on fact? But market continues to recover
• Yingluck in, wins election, democrats and suthep accept defeat – market up up up
• Yingluck in, wins election, democracts and suthep don’t accept defeat – yawn zzz, repeat of the past 6 months
• Yingluck in, loses election – *scoff* *laugh out loud* *snort* this won’t happen