Credit Suisse: (we)/Our clients are confused
Just having a bit of fun here, but its a common theme that I’ve heard across the board with several friends/family/clients/industry-folk for the past 12 months.
- Confusion: Never have we seen so many clients who just do not know what is happening and have cashed up. .
- In Asia, on the other hand, most investors were less concerned about China (though, we have always found the closer you get to China geographically, the less concerned investors are about China).
- Declining global growth: In Credit Suisse’s most recent investor survey regarding growth, pessimism was extremely high, nearing an all-time record, in fact. While much of that has to do with China and emerging markets, Garthwaite said, there is growing worry over the impact on other economies: “China and emerging markets were identified as the main source of growth weakness, however, there were increasing concerns about an inventory-led soft-patch in the developed world, in particular the U.S.”
- A smaller piggy bank of FX reserves: One of the new concerns that was discussed was the $0.5 trillion decline in FX reserves, with this already being likened (by some) to monetary tightening. Credit Suisse again doesn’t think this is the case, since 80 percent of the fall has to due with China and is being sterilized, meaning it’s being offset by more domestic liquidity.
Source: Bloomberg
Our two cents? Volatility is great, opportunities open up that haven’t in the past 12-24 months. Uncertainty is more than welcome.