Investor Movement – Feb ’15
Thoughts:
- Foreigners are still selling this market. Almost anyone you’ll talk to internationally does say that there isn’t any value in Thailand
- I never like seeing prop trading being one of the largest buyers, indicates that should there be a market downturn – all positions will be dumped
- Retail – Only came into in the market this Feb during the volatility, should the market stay @ these lvls, wouldn’t be surprised to see them turn sellers by the end of March
Mike
Hi Pon
I’ve a quick question for you. Why does the SET often dramatically jump at the start and end of the trading day? From what I see it drops at the start of the trading day and rockets at the end. Confused? Is it institutional investors or what?
Mike
Pon
I remember reading that in developed markets the so-called “Smart Money” referring to institutional investors normally comes towards the latter period of a trading day. Whether or not this is the case for Thailand I don’t know, we could argue that yes foreign institutions i.e. from the US/Europe would only make trades in the afternoon but given how traders/brokers are basically operating 24/7 making such a generalisation would be impossible to prove.
So why does the market often drop in the beginning now? Well some people must have to exit their positions in Thailand (and most likely the region) and the rebound in the afternoon period, I’m guessing is mainly due to local institution and really retail buying (they still represent 60% of the market)
Jay
Yeah you see this a lot in emerging markets. First and last 30 minutes of each day seeing significant trade value due to position adjustments at the open and close. Most days I take a nap on my office sofa at midday right till 3pm, never miss a thing 🙂
Ben
Still A Beleiver
Yup some Thai stocks could be looking a bit pricey, others still have reasonable dividend and growth prospects. Don’t see startlingly better value in USA, UK or Australia, if anything many potential stocks have higher P/E, can have OK dividends, but little or no growth prospects. In spite of all the difficulties the lowered oil price should give Thailand a bit of a boost. I see many Thai stocks as a hold rather than a sell. Waiting for a big drop in the market to buy again, guess it may take a while.