Market Update 02/03
What a start to the year…
Got your shopping list ready? Close your eyes and accumulate over the next few months.
You’ll be reading about two things from the economists:
1) Supply Shock – This will come back online faster than people expect and most likely the China + 1 model will become stronger, expect for more investments through domestic markets ex China to prevent such a supply chain issue from happening again. This will take years to play out.
2) Demand Shock – Difference between this period and the 2008 period is that the service industry faced a shock – the labour force will have seen their salaries drop by 1/8 – 1/4 this year, this doesn’t rebound as quickly. People will have to pay off debts, save etc…So I doubt you’ll see luxury sales doing well. But core products/services will recover.
Note: MTD is for the month of March hence the 0%
Nifty
Hi Pon,
What would your top stocks/sectors be for the next year due to all this?
Cheers and as always great reading.
Pon
haha. If I knew I’d be sailing the islands of the world…
I think shipping will go through the roof over the next 1-3 years.
peter satrapa-binder
maybe wait at least another 2-3 months with purchases…
Pon
Until May I think the Thai market is ok. (unless there’s a sudden spike in cases in SF and NYC then the US markets will go crazy => rest of the world going nuts). Why May? 1Q20 #’s + dividend season = weak market.
peter satrapa-binder
yes, the big unknown here is how long the coronavirus problem will persist and what damage it will still cause.