The only question people have is how quickly is the Vayu3 buying up the Thai market?

Local brokers seem to think that it is at a daily run rate of THB 5-7 bn, at this rate it’ll be completed by the end of October, and then?

The upside(s)

• SE Asia has caught a bid, North Asia has caught a massive bid. Currencies strengthened rather quickly – maybe the currency gets weaker but the equity markets remain buoyant – let’s see
• Domestically they are still pumping THB 10,000 to those that need it. That should push the can down the road for some NPLs and perhaps a little push for consumer spending
• The terrible floods up north = more infra spending and hand outs.
• And if there’s news around any of one of the 5 casino licenses perhaps the positivity for Amazing Thailand continues.

The downside(s)

• Same same – NPL’s
• Country is ex-growth
• FDI while decent doesn’t move the needle given the high base
• Tourism is great but doesn’t move the needle given the high base

There are no unknown risks – are they all priced in?